Aggregator

To date, most of GiveWell’s research capacity has focused on finding the most impactful programs among those whose results can be rigorously measured. This work has led us to recommend, and direct several hundred million dollars to, charities improving health, saving lives, and increasing income in low-income countries.

One of the most important reasons we have focused on programs where robust measurement is possible is because this approach largely does not rely on subject-matter expertise. When Holden and I started GiveWell, neither of us had any experience in philanthropy, so we looked for charities that we could evaluate through data and evidence that we could analyze, to make recommendations that we could fully explain. This led us to focus on organizations that had impacts that were relatively easy to measure.

The output of this process is reflected in our current top charities and the programs they run, which are analyzed in our intervention reports.

GiveWell has now been doing research to find the best giving opportunities in global health and development for 11 years, and we plan to increase the scope of giving opportunities we consider. We plan to expand our research team and scope in order to determine whether there are giving opportunities in global health and development that are more cost-effective than those we have identified to date.

We expect this expansion of our work to take us in a number of new directions, some of which we have begun to explore over the past few years. We have considered, in a few cases, the impact our top and standout charities have through providing technical assistance (for example, Deworm the World and Project Healthy Children), supported work to change government policies through our Incubation Grants program (for example, grants to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention and Innovation in Government Initiative), and begun to explore areas like tobacco policy and lead paint elimination.

Over the next several years, we plan to consider everything that we believe could be among the most cost-effective (broadly defined) giving opportunities in global health and development. This includes more comprehensively reviewing direct interventions in sectors where impacts are more difficult to measure, investigating opportunities to influence government policy, as well as other areas.

Making progress in areas where it is harder to determine causality will be challenging. In my opinion, we are excellent evaluators of empirical research, but we have yet to demonstrate the ability to make good judgments about giving opportunities when less empirical information is available. Our values, intellectual framework, culture, and the quality of our staff make me optimistic about our chances, but all of us at GiveWell recognize the difficulty of the project we are embarking on.

Our staff does not currently have the capacity or the capabilities to make enough progress in this direction, so we are planning to significantly increase the size of our staff. We have a research team of ten people, and we are planning to more than double in size over the next three years. We are planning to add some junior staff but are primarily aiming to hire people with relevant experience who can contribute as researchers and/or managers on our team.

GiveWell’s top charities list is not going to change dramatically in the near future, and it may always include the charities we recommend today. Our top charities achieve outstanding, cost-effective results, and we believe they are some of the best giving opportunities in global health and development. We expect to conclude that many of the opportunities we consider in areas that are new for us are less cost-effective than those we currently recommend, but we also think it is possible that we will identify some opportunities that are much more cost-effective. We believe it is worth a major effort to find out.

What areas will we look into?

As with any exploration into a new area, we expect the specifics of the work we will undertake to shift as we learn more. Below we discuss two major areas of work we are embarking on and building our team for currently. In the long term, we are open to considering making grants or recommendations in all areas of global health and development. We have not yet comprehensively considered what those areas might be, but they could include (for example) research and development, or social entrepreneurship.

Using reasoned judgment and less robust evidence to come to conclusions about additional direct-delivery interventions

In the past, we have often asked, “does this intervention meet our criteria?” rather than “what is our best guess about how promising this intervention is relative to our top charities?” Our intervention report on education is a good example of asking the question, “does this meet our criteria?” It reviews all randomized controlled trials of education programs that measure long-term outcomes, but it does not attempt to reach a bottom line about how cost-effective education in developing countries is.

We plan to more deeply explore how we can reach conclusions about how areas such as nutrition, agriculture, education, reproductive health, surgical interventions, mental health, and non-communicable diseases compare to our current top charities.

Investigating opportunities to improve government spending and influence government policy

Some of the areas we will consider exploring to leverage government resources and affect government policy are:

Broad thematic area Examples Brief rationale Public health regulation Tobacco control; lead paint regulation; road traffic safety; air pollution regulation; micronutrient fortification and biofortification; sugar control; salt control; trans-fats control; legislation to reduce counterfeit drugs; soil pollution; pesticide regulation; occupational safety laws Some regulatory interventions to improve public health have had a large impact in high-income countries. Low-income countries can lack the government capacity or political will to implement these regulations. Charities can advocate or provide technical assistance to accelerate regulation and improve implementation. Improving government program selection Innovation in Government Initiative; Innovations for Poverty Action; IDInsight; Center for Effective Global Action Low-income country governments may not have the capabilities to select good programs to support with their limited budgets. Charities can directly assist governments to make better decisions in the short term, or help improve their capabilities to do so independently over the longer term. Improving government implementation Results for Development; Deworm the World in India Low-income countries may not have the capabilities to implement programs effectively. Charities can directly assist governments to improve the reach or quality of programs in the short term, or help improve their capabilities to do so independently over the longer term. Improving non-programmatic government capabilities Building State Capability Improving the administrative capabilities of a government can result in broad improvements in the way countries function. Improved or increased aid spending Center for Global Development; ONE Campaign; Overseas Development Institute; Brookings Institution Spending by high-income countries on global health and development accounts for a large portion of total spending in this area. There are groups who advocate for, and provide technical assistance to improve aid spending. Advocating for increased spending on highly cost-effective, direct-delivery programs Malaria No More; Uniting to Combat Neglected Tropical Diseases GiveWell’s money moved is a small proportion of total global spending on aid. We believe these dollars would go further if a portion were redirected to the highly cost-effective, direct-delivery programs we recommend. Increasing economic growth and redistribution Charter cities; infrastructure programs; trade liberalization; macroeconomic policy; International Growth Centre; tax reform Economic growth is an important driver of economic well-being over the long term. Government policies can be an important determinant of the rate of economic growth and the degree to which growth translates into well-being for the population. There may be opportunities for charities to assist in promoting growth and better distributional outcomes. Negative externalities of high-income country policies Immigration reform; trade liberalization; reducing carbon emissions Governments of high-income countries are incentivized to select policies which are popular with their own voters. These policies can impose substantial costs on low-income countries. Charities can advocate for these policies to be changed. Improving governance Election monitoring; anti-corruption; good governance awards; term limits; peace programs There are particular characteristics of the governance of a country (e.g. democratic accountability, stability, human rights, lack of corruption) which are strongly associated with the well-being of its people. Charities can advocate for these characteristics to be adopted or strengthened. Reducing the cost of health commodities Clinton Health Access Initiative Reductions in the cost of medical commodities can result in improved coverage and improved economic well-being for low-income households. Improving data collection Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Improved data can be used by a variety of actors to make better decisions. One-off big bets Mosquito gene drives advocacy and research We may come across promising projects that do not fit neatly into one of the above categories. How will our analysis change? How will it be the same?

Writing up and publishing the details of the reasoning behind the recommendations we make is a core part of GiveWell. We will remain fully transparent about our research.

Judgment calls that are not easily grounded in empirical data have long been a part of GiveWell’s research. For example, we make difficult, decision-relevant judgment calls about moral weights, interpreting conflicting evidence about deworming, and estimating the crowding-out and crowding-in effects of our donations on other actors (what we call leverage and funging).

As we move into areas where measuring outcomes and attributing causal impact is more difficult, we expect subjective judgments to play a larger role in our decision making. For examples of the approach we have taken to date, see our writeup of our recent recommendation for a grant to the Innovation in Government Initiative, a grantmaking entity within the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) or our page evaluating phase I of our 2016 grant to Results for Development (R4D). While writing about such judgments will be a challenge of this work, we are fully committed to sharing what has led us to our decisions, with only limited exceptions due to confidential or sensitive information.

What does this mean for staffing and organizational growth?

We need to grow our team to achieve our goals. Repeatedly this past year, we had to make the difficult choice to not take on a research project or investigate a grant opportunity that seemed promising because we did not have the capacity.

We are planning to roughly double our research team over the next few years, primarily by adding researchers who have experience and/or an academic background in global health and development. We are looking to add both individual contributors and research managers to the team. We expect that the people we hire in the next few years will play a critical role in shaping GiveWell’s future research agenda and will be some of the leaders of GiveWell in the future.

For more information about the research roles we’re hiring for, see our jobs.

The post How GiveWell’s research is evolving appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

To date, most of GiveWell's research capacity has focused on finding the most impactful programs among those whose results can be rigorously measured. This work has led us to recommend, and direct several hundred million dollars to, charities improving health, saving lives, and increasing income in low-income countries.

One of the most important reasons we have focused on programs where robust measurement is possible is because this approach largely does not rely on subject-matter expertise. When Holden and I started GiveWell, neither of us had any experience in philanthropy, so we looked for charities that we could evaluate through data and evidence that we could analyze, to make recommendations that we could fully explain. This led us to focus on organizations that had impacts that were relatively easy to measure.

The output of this process is reflected in our current top charities and the programs they run, which are analyzed in our intervention reports.

GiveWell has now been doing research to find the best giving opportunities in global health and development for 11 years, and we plan to increase the scope of giving opportunities we consider. We plan to expand our research team and scope in order to determine whether there are giving opportunities in global health and development that are more cost-effective than those we have identified to date.

We expect this expansion of our work to take us in a number of new directions, some of which we have begun to explore over the past few years. We have considered, in a few cases, the impact our top and standout charities have through providing technical assistance (for example, Deworm the World and Project Healthy Children), supported work to change government policies through our Incubation Grants program (for example, grants to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention and Innovation in Government Initiative), and begun to explore areas like tobacco policy and lead paint elimination.

Over the next several years, we plan to consider everything that we believe could be among the most cost-effective (broadly defined) giving opportunities in global health and development. This includes more comprehensively reviewing direct interventions in sectors where impacts are more difficult to measure, investigating opportunities to influence government policy, as well as other areas.

Making progress in areas where it is harder to determine causality will be challenging. In my opinion, we are excellent evaluators of empirical research, but we have yet to demonstrate the ability to make good judgments about giving opportunities when less empirical information is available. Our values, intellectual framework, culture, and the quality of our staff make me optimistic about our chances, but all of us at GiveWell recognize the difficulty of the project we are embarking on.

Our staff does not currently have the capacity or the capabilities to make enough progress in this direction, so we are planning to significantly increase the size of our staff. We have a research team of ten people, and we are planning to more than double in size over the next three years. We are planning to add some junior staff but are primarily aiming to hire people with relevant experience who can contribute as researchers and/or managers on our team.

GiveWell's top charities list is not going to change dramatically in the near future, and it may always include the charities we recommend today. Our top charities achieve outstanding, cost-effective results, and we believe they are some of the best giving opportunities in global health and development. We expect to conclude that many of the opportunities we consider in areas that are new for us are less cost-effective than those we currently recommend, but we also think it is possible that we will identify some opportunities that are much more cost-effective. We believe it is worth a major effort to find out.

Read More

The post How GiveWell’s research is evolving appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

To date, most of GiveWell’s research capacity has focused on finding the most impactful programs among those whose results can be rigorously measured. This work has led us to recommend, and direct several hundred million dollars to, charities improving health, saving lives, and increasing income in low-income countries.

One of the most important reasons we have focused on programs where robust measurement is possible is because this approach largely does not rely on subject-matter expertise. When Holden and I started GiveWell, neither of us had any experience in philanthropy, so we looked for charities that we could evaluate through data and evidence that we could analyze, to make recommendations that we could fully explain. This led us to focus on organizations that had impacts that were relatively easy to measure.

The output of this process is reflected in our current top charities and the programs they run, which are analyzed in our intervention reports.

GiveWell has now been doing research to find the best giving opportunities in global health and development for 11 years, and we plan to increase the scope of giving opportunities we consider. We plan to expand our research team and scope in order to determine whether there are giving opportunities in global health and development that are more cost-effective than those we have identified to date.

We expect this expansion of our work to take us in a number of new directions, some of which we have begun to explore over the past few years. We have considered, in a few cases, the impact our top and standout charities have through providing technical assistance (for example, Deworm the World and Project Healthy Children), supported work to change government policies through our Incubation Grants program (for example, grants to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention and Innovation in Government Initiative), and begun to explore areas like tobacco policy and lead paint elimination.

Over the next several years, we plan to consider everything that we believe could be among the most cost-effective (broadly defined) giving opportunities in global health and development. This includes more comprehensively reviewing direct interventions in sectors where impacts are more difficult to measure, investigating opportunities to influence government policy, as well as other areas.

Making progress in areas where it is harder to determine causality will be challenging. In my opinion, we are excellent evaluators of empirical research, but we have yet to demonstrate the ability to make good judgments about giving opportunities when less empirical information is available. Our values, intellectual framework, culture, and the quality of our staff make me optimistic about our chances, but all of us at GiveWell recognize the difficulty of the project we are embarking on.

Our staff does not currently have the capacity or the capabilities to make enough progress in this direction, so we are planning to significantly increase the size of our staff. We have a research team of ten people, and we are planning to more than double in size over the next three years. We are planning to add some junior staff but are primarily aiming to hire people with relevant experience who can contribute as researchers and/or managers on our team.

GiveWell’s top charities list is not going to change dramatically in the near future, and it may always include the charities we recommend today. Our top charities achieve outstanding, cost-effective results, and we believe they are some of the best giving opportunities in global health and development. We expect to conclude that many of the opportunities we consider in areas that are new for us are less cost-effective than those we currently recommend, but we also think it is possible that we will identify some opportunities that are much more cost-effective. We believe it is worth a major effort to find out.

What areas will we look into?

As with any exploration into a new area, we expect the specifics of the work we will undertake to shift as we learn more. Below we discuss two major areas of work we are embarking on and building our team for currently. In the long term, we are open to considering making grants or recommendations in all areas of global health and development. We have not yet comprehensively considered what those areas might be, but they could include (for example) research and development, or social entrepreneurship.

Using reasoned judgment and less robust evidence to come to conclusions about additional direct-delivery interventions

In the past, we have often asked, “does this intervention meet our criteria?” rather than “what is our best guess about how promising this intervention is relative to our top charities?” Our intervention report on education is a good example of asking the question, “does this meet our criteria?” It reviews all randomized controlled trials of education programs that measure long-term outcomes, but it does not attempt to reach a bottom line about how cost-effective education in developing countries is.

We plan to more deeply explore how we can reach conclusions about how areas such as nutrition, agriculture, education, reproductive health, surgical interventions, mental health, and non-communicable diseases compare to our current top charities.

Investigating opportunities to improve government spending and influence government policy

Some of the areas we will consider exploring to leverage government resources and affect government policy are:

Broad thematic area Examples Brief rationale Public health regulation Tobacco control; lead paint regulation; road traffic safety; air pollution regulation; micronutrient fortification and biofortification; sugar control; salt control; trans-fats control; legislation to reduce counterfeit drugs; soil pollution; pesticide regulation; occupational safety laws Some regulatory interventions to improve public health have had a large impact in high-income countries. Low-income countries can lack the government capacity or political will to implement these regulations. Charities can advocate or provide technical assistance to accelerate regulation and improve implementation. Improving government program selection Innovation in Government Initiative; Innovations for Poverty Action; IDInsight; Center for Effective Global Action Low-income country governments may not have the capabilities to select good programs to support with their limited budgets. Charities can directly assist governments to make better decisions in the short term, or help improve their capabilities to do so independently over the longer term. Improving government implementation Results for Development; Deworm the World in India Low-income countries may not have the capabilities to implement programs effectively. Charities can directly assist governments to improve the reach or quality of programs in the short term, or help improve their capabilities to do so independently over the longer term. Improving non-programmatic government capabilities Building State Capability Improving the administrative capabilities of a government can result in broad improvements in the way countries function. Improved or increased aid spending Center for Global Development; ONE Campaign; Overseas Development Institute; Brookings Institution Spending by high-income countries on global health and development accounts for a large portion of total spending in this area. There are groups who advocate for, and provide technical assistance to improve aid spending. Advocating for increased spending on highly cost-effective, direct-delivery programs Malaria No More; Uniting to Combat Neglected Tropical Diseases GiveWell’s money moved is a small proportion of total global spending on aid. We believe these dollars would go further if a portion were redirected to the highly cost-effective, direct-delivery programs we recommend. Increasing economic growth and redistribution Charter cities; infrastructure programs; trade liberalization; macroeconomic policy; International Growth Centre; tax reform Economic growth is an important driver of economic well-being over the long term. Government policies can be an important determinant of the rate of economic growth and the degree to which growth translates into well-being for the population. There may be opportunities for charities to assist in promoting growth and better distributional outcomes. Negative externalities of high-income country policies Immigration reform; trade liberalization; reducing carbon emissions Governments of high-income countries are incentivized to select policies which are popular with their own voters. These policies can impose substantial costs on low-income countries. Charities can advocate for these policies to be changed. Improving governance Election monitoring; anti-corruption; good governance awards; term limits; peace programs There are particular characteristics of the governance of a country (e.g. democratic accountability, stability, human rights, lack of corruption) which are strongly associated with the well-being of its people. Charities can advocate for these characteristics to be adopted or strengthened. Reducing the cost of health commodities Clinton Health Access Initiative Reductions in the cost of medical commodities can result in improved coverage and improved economic well-being for low-income households. Improving data collection Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Improved data can be used by a variety of actors to make better decisions. One-off big bets Mosquito gene drives advocacy and research We may come across promising projects that do not fit neatly into one of the above categories. How will our analysis change? How will it be the same?

Writing up and publishing the details of the reasoning behind the recommendations we make is a core part of GiveWell. We will remain fully transparent about our research.

Judgment calls that are not easily grounded in empirical data have long been a part of GiveWell’s research. For example, we make difficult, decision-relevant judgment calls about moral weights, interpreting conflicting evidence about deworming, and estimating the crowding-out and crowding-in effects of our donations on other actors (what we call leverage and funging).

As we move into areas where measuring outcomes and attributing causal impact is more difficult, we expect subjective judgments to play a larger role in our decision making. For examples of the approach we have taken to date, see our writeup of our recent recommendation for a grant to the Innovation in Government Initiative, a grantmaking entity within the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) or our page evaluating phase I of our 2016 grant to Results for Development (R4D). While writing about such judgments will be a challenge of this work, we are fully committed to sharing what has led us to our decisions, with only limited exceptions due to confidential or sensitive information.

What does this mean for staffing and organizational growth?

We need to grow our team to achieve our goals. Repeatedly this past year, we had to make the difficult choice to not take on a research project or investigate a grant opportunity that seemed promising because we did not have the capacity.

We are planning to roughly double our research team over the next few years, primarily by adding researchers who have experience and/or an academic background in global health and development. We are looking to add both individual contributors and research managers to the team. We expect that the people we hire in the next few years will play a critical role in shaping GiveWell’s future research agenda and will be some of the leaders of GiveWell in the future.

For more information about the research roles we’re hiring for, see our jobs.

The post How GiveWell’s research is evolving appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

If you’re thinking about where to give to charity this year and it would be helpful to speak with a member of GiveWell’s staff about your decision, please let us know. We’re happy to answer questions sent to info@givewell.org or to schedule a call via the form here.

On a call, we’d be glad to:

• Provide an overview of our recommendations. We know it can be time-consuming to read and digest all of the content on our website. We’re glad to share a quick summary of our top charities list.
• Assist with the logistics of making a donation and discuss different options for donating, such as appreciated securities, checks, and wire transfers.
• Answer any questions about our research or recommendations.

Due to limited staff capacity, it’s possible we won’t be able to speak with everyone who requests a call, although based on past experience we hope to be able to connect with anyone who gets in touch.

We look forward to hearing from you!

The post Schedule a quick call to make giving easier appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

If you’re thinking about where to give to charity this year and it would be helpful to speak with a member of GiveWell’s staff about your decision, please let us know. We’re happy to answer questions sent to info@givewell.org or to schedule a call via the form here.

On a call, we’d be glad to:

• Provide an overview of our recommendations. We know it can be time-consuming to read and digest all of the content on our website. We’re glad to share a quick summary of our top charities list.
• Assist with the logistics of making a donation and discuss different options for donating, such as appreciated securities, checks, and wire transfers.
• Answer any questions about our research or recommendations.

Due to limited staff capacity, it’s possible we won’t be able to speak with everyone who requests a call, although based on past experience we hope to be able to connect with anyone who gets in touch.

We look forward to hearing from you!

The post Schedule a quick call to make giving easier appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Our goal with hosting quarterly open threads is to give blog readers an opportunity to publicly raise comments or questions about GiveWell or related topics (in the comments section below). As always, you’re also welcome to email us at info@givewell.org or to request a call with GiveWell staff if you have feedback or questions you’d prefer to discuss privately. We’ll try to respond promptly to questions or comments.

You can view our September 2018 open thread here.

The post December 2018 open thread appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Our goal with hosting quarterly open threads is to give blog readers an opportunity to publicly raise comments or questions about GiveWell or related topics (in the comments section below). As always, you’re also welcome to email us at info@givewell.org or to request a call with GiveWell staff if you have feedback or questions you’d prefer to discuss privately. We’ll try to respond promptly to questions or comments.

You can view our September 2018 open thread here.

The post December 2018 open thread appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

For this post, GiveWell staff members wrote up the thinking behind their personal donations for the year. We made similar posts in previous years.1See our staff giving posts from 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Staff are listed in order of their start dates at GiveWell.

You can click the below links to jump to a staff member’s entry:

• Elie Hassenfeld
• Natalie Crispin
• Josh Rosenberg
• Devin Jacob
• Catherine Hollander
• Andrew Martin
• Christian Smith
• Isabel Arjmand
• James Snowden
• Dan Brown
• Olivia Larsen
• Amar Radia

Elie Hassenfeld

This year, I’m planning to donate to GiveWell for granting to top charities at its discretion.

I feel the same way I did last year, when I wrote, “GiveWell is currently producing the highest-quality research it ever has, which has led to more thoroughly researched, higher-quality recommendations that have been compared to more potential alternatives than ever before.”

I asked Holden Karnofsky, GiveWell’s co-founder, whether he thought there were promising opportunities for individuals with long-termist views; after checking with him, I believed that the Open Philanthropy Project and other donors were covering most of the opportunities I would find most promising.

I also considered giving to animal welfare organizations. I looked briefly at Animal Charity Evaluators’ research but ultimately didn’t feel like I had enough time to think through how their recommendations compared to giving to GiveWell, so I defaulted to GiveWell. I hope to give this more consideration in the future.

Natalie Crispin

I will be giving my annual gift to GiveWell for granting at its discretion to top charities. We expect that all of our top charities will be constrained by funding in the next year and that several will have unfunded opportunities to spend funds in highly cost-effective ways (at least 5 times as cost-effective as cash transfers). Our current best guess is that GiveWell will grant the funds it receives for granting at its discretion to Malaria Consortium, which would allow it to expand its work preventing child deaths from malaria in Nigeria or other countries. There is also a possibility that we will identify an opportunity that is more cost-effective than how Malaria Consortium would use funding at the current margin. Over the next few months, we will be discussing with our top charities how they plan to use funding from Good Ventures and other funders and what that means for how they would use additional funding. Giving to GiveWell for granting at its discretion allows for flexibility to take advantage of those opportunities.

I am very grateful for all the work, thoughtfulness, and hours of debate that my colleagues put into GiveWell’s recommendations this year. I am excited to support the most effective charities I know of.

Josh Rosenberg

I’m planning to give the same way that I did last year:

• 80% to GiveWell for granting at its discretion to top charities. GiveWell’s top charities are the most cost-effective ways to help people that I know of. I see Malaria Consortium’s work on seasonal malaria chemoprevention (the current default option for discretionary funding) as a robust and highly effective giving opportunity.
• 10% to animal welfare charities. I believe that animal welfare is a particularly important and neglected problem.
• 10% to long-term future-oriented causes. I have not yet chosen a donation target in this cause area. If I do not find an opportunity I am satisfied with after a small amount of additional research, I will enter this portion of my giving into a donor lottery.

I focused most of my giving on global health and development since GiveWell’s top charities have the most pressing funding gaps I am aware of. If I knew of an especially strong case for a particular giving opportunity in another cause area, I would be open to changing my allocation in the future.

Devin Jacob

I plan on making approximately 80% of my charitable donations in 2018 to GiveWell, with 100% of that money allocated to GiveDirectly. Compared to my colleagues at GiveWell, I value near-term improvements in material well-being more than I value reducing deaths. Donating to GiveDirectly is the best means of supporting this goal that I know of.

I struggle each year when attempting to assess whether I should bet on the possible long-term income effects of deworming. To date I have been unable to convince myself I should make this bet, even though I find little to argue with in our work on the expected value of donations to charities implementing deworming programs. I am making a decision to ignore the difference in expected value between a donation to a deworming charity and a donation to GiveDirectly due to the greater certainty of impact via the latter. I think my approach to charitable giving is conservative relative to other staff at GiveWell and many of our donors but I also think that my approach is reasonable given my specific ethical commitments.

I also support other organizations with gifts each year. This year, approximately 10-15% of my giving will go to organizations that do not meet GiveWell’s criteria. These organizations work in a number of areas including:

• Immigration policy, activism, and legal aid – International Refugee Assistance Project, RAICES, and the National Immigration Law Center
• Nonprofit news – primarily CALmatters, the Center for Investigative Reporting, and ProPublica
• Local issues I care about such as transit infrastructure – eg, Bike East Bay
• Other political causes

I choose to keep the political contributions I make private as some of the causes I support are controversial and I would not want my political beliefs to have any potential impact on GiveWell’s work.

In the course of my day-to-day work duties at GiveWell, I also frequently make small donations to our charities when testing various payment platforms. To date, these donations account for approximately 5-10% of my remaining planned gifts in 2018. These gifts are distributed among our recommended and standout charities haphazardly. I could refund these transactions, but choose not to do that as I think all of our recommended charities do excellent work and I am happy to support them.

Catherine Hollander

I plan to give 75% of my total charitable giving to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program. I value averting deaths quite highly and I believe, based on GiveWell’s assessment, that contributing toward filling Malaria Consortium’s funding gap will accomplish a lot of good in the world. In previous years (2017, 2016, and 2015), the majority of my gift has been directed to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF), but I believe Malaria Consortium currently has a more pressing funding gap for its seasonal malaria chemoprevention work.

I plan to give 10% of my total giving to AMF to continue their work. I understand that giving predictably is helpful for organizations’ planning and I don’t wish to abruptly alter my support for AMF. I also think that AMF continues to represent an outstanding giving opportunity as one of GiveWell’s top charities.

I plan to give 5% of my total giving to StrongMinds, an organization focused on treating depression in Africa. I have not vetted this organization anywhere nearly as closely as GiveWell’s top charities have been vetted, though I understand that a number of people in the effective altruism community have a positive view of StrongMinds within the cause area of mental health (though I don’t have any reason to think it is more cost-effective than GiveWell’s top charities). Intuitively, I believe mental health is an important cause area for donors to consider, and although we do not have GiveWell recommendations in this space, I would like to learn more about this area by making a relatively small donation to an organization that focuses on it.

I plan to give the remaining 10% of my charitable giving this year in conjunction with my partner to an organization working on criminal justice reform in the United States. We are going to discuss and review organizations together between now and the end of the year and make a joint gift in this space. I plan to consult previous recommendations made by Open Philanthropy Project’s program officer focused on criminal justice reform, Chloe Cockburn, as well as checking with friends who are better informed of the needs in this space than I am.

Andrew Martin

I think there’s a strong case for donating to GiveWell to grant to top charities at its discretion this year.

Our top charities have substantial funding gaps for highly cost-effective programs, even after taking the $63.2 million that we’ve recommended that Good Ventures allocate between our top charities into account. These funding gaps include expanding Malaria Consortium’s work on seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Nigeria, Chad, and Burkina Faso, extending HKI’s vitamin A supplementation programs in several countries over the next three years, and extending Deworm the World’s programs in Pakistan and Nigeria.

As Natalie and James have noted, it seems likely that donations given to GiveWell at the end of 2018 to allocate at its discretion will be directed to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program. I’m planning to donate to GiveWell to allocate at its discretion because I expect that GiveWell will either direct those funds to Malaria Consortium or to another funding gap it judges to be even more valuable to fill.

Christian Smith

I’m planning to make my year-end donation to Malaria Consortium for its seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program. As my colleagues have mentioned, Malaria Consortium appears to be in a great position for scaling up a highly-effective intervention in areas with substantial malaria burdens.

I decided not to give to GiveWell for granting at its discretion because I think there’s a chance GiveWell will decide deworming programs look more worthwhile than SMC on the margin. I take a more skeptical stance than most of my colleagues on the value of deworming programs. While I’m not confident, I would guess that our process for modeling the value of deworming relative to malaria prevention puts deworming in too favorable a light.

Isabel Arjmand

My giving this year looks very similar to last year’s. It’s important to me for the bulk of my giving to go to organizations where I’m confident that my donation will have a substantial impact, and I don’t know of any giving opportunities in that vein that are as strong as GiveWell’s top charities. Each year I also give to a handful of other organizations, some in international development and others operating in the United States. I intend each of those donations to be large enough to be meaningful to me and to signal support for these programs, while still leaving the vast majority for GiveWell-recommended charities. In all, 80% of my charitable budget is going to GiveWell’s top charities and 20% to other causes, which is the same as my donation last year.

I’m giving 75% of my total year-end donation to grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion. I strongly considered designating my donation to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program instead. I’m very excited about Malaria Consortium’s opportunity to provide SMC in Nigeria; I’ve been particularly impressed by Malaria Consortium as an organization over the past year; and I have more confidence in SMC as an intervention than I do in some others. It’s hard for me to imagine preferring for my donation to go elsewhere when it’s time for GiveWell to grant out its discretionary funding from the fourth quarter of 2018. But, I believe that if GiveWell does decide to give the next round of discretionary funding elsewhere, I’m more likely than not to agree with that decision. I hold this belief in part because my moral weights and overall outputs in our cost-effectiveness analysis are quite similar to the median staff member, and while I’m concerned about the evidence for deworming, I think that concern is adequately reflected in my cost-effectiveness analysis inputs.

An additional 5% of my donation will go to GiveDirectly. I look forward to continuing to follow the work they do, particularly their cash benchmarking project, their work with refugees, and their continual research to improve the effectiveness of their programs.

I plan to distribute the remaining 20% of my donation across the following organizations:

• International Refugee Assistance Project, which advocates for refugees and displaced people with a focus on those from the Middle East.
• StrongMinds, which is the most promising organization I know of focused on mental health in low- and middle-income countries.
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which takes a comprehensive, intersectional view of women’s health and reproductive justice.
• Cool Earth, which works with local communities to protect rainforests and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

As I wrote last year, I’d be somewhat surprised if these organizations were competitively cost-effective with GiveWell’s top charities, and I haven’t vetted them with an intensity that comes anywhere close to the rigor of GiveWell evaluations. I choose to support these programs in order to promote more justice-focused causes, further my own civic engagement, and signal support for work I think is important.

I also make small donations throughout the year to grassroots organizations working in the Bay Area like Causa Justa :: Just Cause, Initiate Justice, and the Sogorea Te Land Trust. These donations, which are motivated primarily by community engagement and relationship-building, come out of my personal discretionary spending, rather than what I budget for charitable giving.

As always, I’m grateful for the thoughtfulness of my colleagues, the work that went into producing this year’s recommendations, and the conversations we’ve had that have informed my own giving.

James Snowden

I’m planning to donate to GiveWell for allocating funds at its discretion because (i) I prefer GiveWell to have the flexibility to react to new information, and (ii) in the absence of new information, I expect additional funds will be allocated to Malaria Consortium, the charity I would have given to. I expect Malaria Consortium would use those funds to scale up seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Nigeria, Chad and Burkina Faso. According to the Global Burden of Disease, Nigeria has the most deaths from malaria of any country, and Burkina Faso has the highest rate of deaths from malaria given its population size. This drives my view that donations to Malaria Consortium are likely to be more cost-effective than donations to the Against Malaria Foundation, which sometimes distributes nets in countries with a lower malaria burden.

I may also continue to give a smaller proportion of my donations to organizations working on improving animal welfare, and focused on the long-term future, but haven’t yet decided whether to do so, or where to give.

Dan Brown

I will give 75% of my 2018 charity donation to GiveWell to allocate to recommended charities at its discretion. This is my first year working for GiveWell and I’ve been very impressed with the quality of work that goes into our recommendations. My moral values seem to be quite close to the median values across staff members in our cost-effectiveness analysis, and so I see no reason to deviate from GiveWell’s choice on that basis. As Natalie and James note, our best guess is that these funds will be allocated to Malaria Consortium to scale up its seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs.

I will give 15% of my donation to No Means No Worldwide, a global rape prevention organisation. I spent a reasonable amount of time during my PhD researching gender based violence. This encouraged me to donate to an organisation tackling sexual violence, particularly because the frequency of sexual violence globally is staggering. I have not vetted No Means No Worldwide with anything like the rigor of a GiveWell evaluation, but I have been impressed by what I have read so far (e.g. they are evaluating their program using RCTs, and I like that part of their approach is to promote positive masculinity amongst boys).

I will give 6% of my donation to Stonewall (UK), an organisation tackling discrimination against LGBT people. Whilst I have focused most of my donation on global health and development, I would also like to support a more justice-focused cause. I have fairly limited information with which to choose amongst charities in this area as I’m not aware of a GiveWell-type organisation to help direct my donation. However, I would like to see more done to tackle homophobia in sport, and the main organisation I am aware of that has tried to do this is Stonewall (UK) (through its Rainbow Laces campaign).

I will give the remaining 4% of my donation to Afrinspire. I have donated to this charity for a number of years. To my knowledge, the money I donate is used to help pay for school costs for orphaned children in Kampala (through the Jaguza Initiative). I do not expect this to be as cost-effective as other charitable giving opportunities, but I do not think it would be responsible to unexpectedly decrease this donation now that I am paying more attention personally to cost-effectiveness.

Olivia Larsen

This year, I plan to give 95% of my year-end donation to GiveWell for granting at its discretion. This is my first year working at GiveWell full-time, and it will be my first time contributing to GiveWell’s discretionary fund.

In previous years, I have chosen to support specific top charities among GiveWell’s recommendations. Knowing which charity I was supporting in advance of my donation helped me more clearly conceptualize the impact I was making. Since starting at GiveWell, however, I’ve seen the level of detail and thought that the research team puts into analyzing each top charity’s funding gaps and identifying where a marginal dollar will have the largest impact. I’m convinced that the additional good associated with GiveWell being able to adapt to additional information and allocate my donation to the highest-impact charity we see when the grants are disbursed outweighs my desire to know where my donation will go ahead of time.

I also expect to allocate 5% of my year-end donation to helping factory farmed animals. This will be my first donation to an animal-focused charity, and it is a decision I went back and forth on. I believe that animals suffer, and I believe that I should act to alleviate that suffering; for example, by not eating animal products. Due to the scale of factory farming, the intensity of factory farming, and the neglectedness of the cause, I think it’s reasonable that interventions there might be orders of magnitude more cost-effective at averting the suffering of animals than GiveWell’s charities are at averting the suffering of humans. However, I’m very uncertain about how to compare helping animals to helping humans. I’m uncomfortable about the idea of allowing a human to suffer, even if I can alleviate the suffering of many animals with the same donation. I haven’t fully engaged with this discomfort yet, but I’m planning to make a donation targeted at helping animals this year to help me both clarify my own values and learn more about the effective animal advocacy space. I haven’t yet decided how to allocate this donation, but I expect that I’ll either donate to the Animal Welfare Fund through Effective Altruism Funds or through outsourcing the decision to a trusted friend who knows more about effective animal advocacy than I do.

Amar Radia

This year, I plan to give 75% of my donations to GiveWell to allocate at its discretion. I believe that this will ensure that my donations go the furthest in global health and development. In previous years, I have given to either one of GiveWell’s top charities, or to the Global Health Effective Altruism fund. This year, my greater understanding of the advantages in allowing my donations to be channelled at GiveWell’s discretion, coupled with my U.S. taxpayer status, have caused me to prefer to give to GiveWell for regranting.

I plan to give the remaining 25% of my donations to an organization working on animal welfare but have not yet decided which one. It will likely be one of Animal Charity Evaluators top charities, and I expect to rely on the advice of a friend who has thought about effective animal charities far more than I have. I also considered giving some money to organizations focusing on the long-term future, but my view is that these organizations are not funding constrained.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ See our staff giving posts from 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Staff members’ personal donations for giving season 2018 appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

For this post, GiveWell staff members wrote up the thinking behind their personal donations for the year. We made similar posts in previous years.1See our staff giving posts from 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Staff are listed in order of their start dates at GiveWell.

You can click the below links to jump to a staff member’s entry:

• Elie Hassenfeld
• Natalie Crispin
• Josh Rosenberg
• Devin Jacob
• Catherine Hollander
• Andrew Martin
• Christian Smith
• Isabel Arjmand
• James Snowden
• Dan Brown
• Olivia Larsen
• Amar Radia

Elie Hassenfeld

This year, I’m planning to donate to GiveWell for granting to top charities at its discretion.

I feel the same way I did last year, when I wrote, “GiveWell is currently producing the highest-quality research it ever has, which has led to more thoroughly researched, higher-quality recommendations that have been compared to more potential alternatives than ever before.”

I asked Holden Karnofsky, GiveWell’s co-founder, whether he thought there were promising opportunities for individuals with long-termist views; after checking with him, I believed that the Open Philanthropy Project and other donors were covering most of the opportunities I would find most promising.

I also considered giving to animal welfare organizations. I looked briefly at Animal Charity Evaluators’ research but ultimately didn’t feel like I had enough time to think through how their recommendations compared to giving to GiveWell, so I defaulted to GiveWell. I hope to give this more consideration in the future.

Natalie Crispin

I will be giving my annual gift to GiveWell for granting at its discretion to top charities. We expect that all of our top charities will be constrained by funding in the next year and that several will have unfunded opportunities to spend funds in highly cost-effective ways (at least 5 times as cost-effective as cash transfers). Our current best guess is that GiveWell will grant the funds it receives for granting at its discretion to Malaria Consortium, which would allow it to expand its work preventing child deaths from malaria in Nigeria or other countries. There is also a possibility that we will identify an opportunity that is more cost-effective than how Malaria Consortium would use funding at the current margin. Over the next few months, we will be discussing with our top charities how they plan to use funding from Good Ventures and other funders and what that means for how they would use additional funding. Giving to GiveWell for granting at its discretion allows for flexibility to take advantage of those opportunities.

I am very grateful for all the work, thoughtfulness, and hours of debate that my colleagues put into GiveWell’s recommendations this year. I am excited to support the most effective charities I know of.

Josh Rosenberg

I’m planning to give the same way that I did last year:

• 80% to GiveWell for granting at its discretion to top charities. GiveWell’s top charities are the most cost-effective ways to help people that I know of. I see Malaria Consortium’s work on seasonal malaria chemoprevention (the current default option for discretionary funding) as a robust and highly effective giving opportunity.
• 10% to animal welfare charities. I believe that animal welfare is a particularly important and neglected problem.
• 10% to long-term future-oriented causes. I have not yet chosen a donation target in this cause area. If I do not find an opportunity I am satisfied with after a small amount of additional research, I will enter this portion of my giving into a donor lottery.

I focused most of my giving on global health and development since GiveWell’s top charities have the most pressing funding gaps I am aware of. If I knew of an especially strong case for a particular giving opportunity in another cause area, I would be open to changing my allocation in the future.

Devin Jacob

I plan on making approximately 80% of my charitable donations in 2018 to GiveWell, with 100% of that money allocated to GiveDirectly. Compared to my colleagues at GiveWell, I value near-term improvements in material well-being more than I value reducing deaths. Donating to GiveDirectly is the best means of supporting this goal that I know of.

I struggle each year when attempting to assess whether I should bet on the possible long-term income effects of deworming. To date I have been unable to convince myself I should make this bet, even though I find little to argue with in our work on the expected value of donations to charities implementing deworming programs. I am making a decision to ignore the difference in expected value between a donation to a deworming charity and a donation to GiveDirectly due to the greater certainty of impact via the latter. I think my approach to charitable giving is conservative relative to other staff at GiveWell and many of our donors but I also think that my approach is reasonable given my specific ethical commitments.

I also support other organizations with gifts each year. This year, approximately 10-15% of my giving will go to organizations that do not meet GiveWell’s criteria. These organizations work in a number of areas including:

• Immigration policy, activism, and legal aid – International Refugee Assistance Project, RAICES, and the National Immigration Law Center
• Nonprofit news – primarily CALmatters, the Center for Investigative Reporting, and ProPublica
• Local issues I care about such as transit infrastructure – eg, Bike East Bay
• Other political causes

I choose to keep the political contributions I make private as some of the causes I support are controversial and I would not want my political beliefs to have any potential impact on GiveWell’s work.

In the course of my day-to-day work duties at GiveWell, I also frequently make small donations to our charities when testing various payment platforms. To date, these donations account for approximately 5-10% of my remaining planned gifts in 2018. These gifts are distributed among our recommended and standout charities haphazardly. I could refund these transactions, but choose not to do that as I think all of our recommended charities do excellent work and I am happy to support them.

Catherine Hollander

I plan to give 75% of my total charitable giving to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program. I value averting deaths quite highly and I believe, based on GiveWell’s assessment, that contributing toward filling Malaria Consortium’s funding gap will accomplish a lot of good in the world. In previous years (2017, 2016, and 2015), the majority of my gift has been directed to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF), but I believe Malaria Consortium currently has a more pressing funding gap for its seasonal malaria chemoprevention work.

I plan to give 10% of my total giving to AMF to continue their work. I understand that giving predictably is helpful for organizations’ planning and I don’t wish to abruptly alter my support for AMF. I also think that AMF continues to represent an outstanding giving opportunity as one of GiveWell’s top charities.

I plan to give 5% of my total giving to StrongMinds, an organization focused on treating depression in Africa. I have not vetted this organization anywhere nearly as closely as GiveWell’s top charities have been vetted, though I understand that a number of people in the effective altruism community have a positive view of StrongMinds within the cause area of mental health (though I don’t have any reason to think it is more cost-effective than GiveWell’s top charities). Intuitively, I believe mental health is an important cause area for donors to consider, and although we do not have GiveWell recommendations in this space, I would like to learn more about this area by making a relatively small donation to an organization that focuses on it.

I plan to give the remaining 10% of my charitable giving this year in conjunction with my partner to an organization working on criminal justice reform in the United States. We are going to discuss and review organizations together between now and the end of the year and make a joint gift in this space. I plan to consult previous recommendations made by Open Philanthropy Project’s program officer focused on criminal justice reform, Chloe Cockburn, as well as checking with friends who are better informed of the needs in this space than I am.

Andrew Martin

I think there’s a strong case for donating to GiveWell to grant to top charities at its discretion this year.

Our top charities have substantial funding gaps for highly cost-effective programs, even after taking the $63.2 million that we’ve recommended that Good Ventures allocate between our top charities into account. These funding gaps include expanding Malaria Consortium’s work on seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Nigeria, Chad, and Burkina Faso, extending HKI’s vitamin A supplementation programs in several countries over the next three years, and extending Deworm the World’s programs in Pakistan and Nigeria.

As Natalie and James have noted, it seems likely that donations given to GiveWell at the end of 2018 to allocate at its discretion will be directed to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program. I’m planning to donate to GiveWell to allocate at its discretion because I expect that GiveWell will either direct those funds to Malaria Consortium or to another funding gap it judges to be even more valuable to fill.

Christian Smith

I’m planning to make my year-end donation to Malaria Consortium for its seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program. As my colleagues have mentioned, Malaria Consortium appears to be in a great position for scaling up a highly-effective intervention in areas with substantial malaria burdens.

I decided not to give to GiveWell for granting at its discretion because I think there’s a chance GiveWell will decide deworming programs look more worthwhile than SMC on the margin. I take a more skeptical stance than most of my colleagues on the value of deworming programs. While I’m not confident, I would guess that our process for modeling the value of deworming relative to malaria prevention puts deworming in too favorable a light.

Isabel Arjmand

My giving this year looks very similar to last year’s. It’s important to me for the bulk of my giving to go to organizations where I’m confident that my donation will have a substantial impact, and I don’t know of any giving opportunities in that vein that are as strong as GiveWell’s top charities. Each year I also give to a handful of other organizations, some in international development and others operating in the United States. I intend each of those donations to be large enough to be meaningful to me and to signal support for these programs, while still leaving the vast majority for GiveWell-recommended charities. In all, 80% of my charitable budget is going to GiveWell’s top charities and 20% to other causes, which is the same as my donation last year.

I’m giving 75% of my total year-end donation to grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion. I strongly considered designating my donation to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program instead. I’m very excited about Malaria Consortium’s opportunity to provide SMC in Nigeria; I’ve been particularly impressed by Malaria Consortium as an organization over the past year; and I have more confidence in SMC as an intervention than I do in some others. It’s hard for me to imagine preferring for my donation to go elsewhere when it’s time for GiveWell to grant out its discretionary funding from the fourth quarter of 2018. But, I believe that if GiveWell does decide to give the next round of discretionary funding elsewhere, I’m more likely than not to agree with that decision. I hold this belief in part because my moral weights and overall outputs in our cost-effectiveness analysis are quite similar to the median staff member, and while I’m concerned about the evidence for deworming, I think that concern is adequately reflected in my cost-effectiveness analysis inputs.

An additional 5% of my donation will go to GiveDirectly. I look forward to continuing to follow the work they do, particularly their cash benchmarking project, their work with refugees, and their continual research to improve the effectiveness of their programs.

I plan to distribute the remaining 20% of my donation across the following organizations:

• International Refugee Assistance Project, which advocates for refugees and displaced people with a focus on those from the Middle East.
• StrongMinds, which is the most promising organization I know of focused on mental health in low- and middle-income countries.
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which takes a comprehensive, intersectional view of women’s health and reproductive justice.
• Cool Earth, which works with local communities to protect rainforests and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

As I wrote last year, I’d be somewhat surprised if these organizations were competitively cost-effective with GiveWell’s top charities, and I haven’t vetted them with an intensity that comes anywhere close to the rigor of GiveWell evaluations. I choose to support these programs in order to promote more justice-focused causes, further my own civic engagement, and signal support for work I think is important.

I also make small donations throughout the year to grassroots organizations working in the Bay Area like Causa Justa :: Just Cause, Initiate Justice, and the Sogorea Te Land Trust. These donations, which are motivated primarily by community engagement and relationship-building, come out of my personal discretionary spending, rather than what I budget for charitable giving.

As always, I’m grateful for the thoughtfulness of my colleagues, the work that went into producing this year’s recommendations, and the conversations we’ve had that have informed my own giving.

James Snowden

I’m planning to donate to GiveWell for allocating funds at its discretion because (i) I prefer GiveWell to have the flexibility to react to new information, and (ii) in the absence of new information, I expect additional funds will be allocated to Malaria Consortium, the charity I would have given to. I expect Malaria Consortium would use those funds to scale up seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Nigeria, Chad and Burkina Faso. According to the Global Burden of Disease, Nigeria has the most deaths from malaria of any country, and Burkina Faso has the highest rate of deaths from malaria given its population size. This drives my view that donations to Malaria Consortium are likely to be more cost-effective than donations to the Against Malaria Foundation, which sometimes distributes nets in countries with a lower malaria burden.

I may also continue to give a smaller proportion of my donations to organizations working on improving animal welfare, and focused on the long-term future, but haven’t yet decided whether to do so, or where to give.

Dan Brown

I will give 75% of my 2018 charity donation to GiveWell to allocate to recommended charities at its discretion. This is my first year working for GiveWell and I’ve been very impressed with the quality of work that goes into our recommendations. My moral values seem to be quite close to the median values across staff members in our cost-effectiveness analysis, and so I see no reason to deviate from GiveWell’s choice on that basis. As Natalie and James note, our best guess is that these funds will be allocated to Malaria Consortium to scale up its seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs.

I will give 15% of my donation to No Means No Worldwide, a global rape prevention organisation. I spent a reasonable amount of time during my PhD researching gender based violence. This encouraged me to donate to an organisation tackling sexual violence, particularly because the frequency of sexual violence globally is staggering. I have not vetted No Means No Worldwide with anything like the rigor of a GiveWell evaluation, but I have been impressed by what I have read so far (e.g. they are evaluating their program using RCTs, and I like that part of their approach is to promote positive masculinity amongst boys).

I will give 6% of my donation to Stonewall (UK), an organisation tackling discrimination against LGBT people. Whilst I have focused most of my donation on global health and development, I would also like to support a more justice-focused cause. I have fairly limited information with which to choose amongst charities in this area as I’m not aware of a GiveWell-type organisation to help direct my donation. However, I would like to see more done to tackle homophobia in sport, and the main organisation I am aware of that has tried to do this is Stonewall (UK) (through its Rainbow Laces campaign).

I will give the remaining 4% of my donation to Afrinspire. I have donated to this charity for a number of years. To my knowledge, the money I donate is used to help pay for school costs for orphaned children in Kampala (through the Jaguza Initiative). I do not expect this to be as cost-effective as other charitable giving opportunities, but I do not think it would be responsible to unexpectedly decrease this donation now that I am paying more attention personally to cost-effectiveness.

Olivia Larsen

This year, I plan to give 95% of my year-end donation to GiveWell for granting at its discretion. This is my first year working at GiveWell full-time, and it will be my first time contributing to GiveWell’s discretionary fund.

In previous years, I have chosen to support specific top charities among GiveWell’s recommendations. Knowing which charity I was supporting in advance of my donation helped me more clearly conceptualize the impact I was making. Since starting at GiveWell, however, I’ve seen the level of detail and thought that the research team puts into analyzing each top charity’s funding gaps and identifying where a marginal dollar will have the largest impact. I’m convinced that the additional good associated with GiveWell being able to adapt to additional information and allocate my donation to the highest-impact charity we see when the grants are disbursed outweighs my desire to know where my donation will go ahead of time.

I also expect to allocate 5% of my year-end donation to helping factory farmed animals. This will be my first donation to an animal-focused charity, and it is a decision I went back and forth on. I believe that animals suffer, and I believe that I should act to alleviate that suffering; for example, by not eating animal products. Due to the scale of factory farming, the intensity of factory farming, and the neglectedness of the cause, I think it’s reasonable that interventions there might be orders of magnitude more cost-effective at averting the suffering of animals than GiveWell’s charities are at averting the suffering of humans. However, I’m very uncertain about how to compare helping animals to helping humans. I’m uncomfortable about the idea of allowing a human to suffer, even if I can alleviate the suffering of many animals with the same donation. I haven’t fully engaged with this discomfort yet, but I’m planning to make a donation targeted at helping animals this year to help me both clarify my own values and learn more about the effective animal advocacy space. I haven’t yet decided how to allocate this donation, but I expect that I’ll either donate to the Animal Welfare Fund through Effective Altruism Funds or through outsourcing the decision to a trusted friend who knows more about effective animal advocacy than I do.

Amar Radia

This year, I plan to give 75% of my donations to GiveWell to allocate at its discretion. I believe that this will ensure that my donations go the furthest in global health and development. In previous years, I have given to either one of GiveWell’s top charities, or to the Global Health Effective Altruism fund. This year, my greater understanding of the advantages in allowing my donations to be channelled at GiveWell’s discretion, coupled with my U.S. taxpayer status, have caused me to prefer to give to GiveWell for regranting.

I plan to give the remaining 25% of my donations to an organization working on animal welfare but have not yet decided which one. It will likely be one of Animal Charity Evaluators top charities, and I expect to rely on the advice of a friend who has thought about effective animal charities far more than I have. I also considered giving some money to organizations focusing on the long-term future, but my view is that these organizations are not funding constrained.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ See our staff giving posts from 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Staff members’ personal donations for giving season 2018 appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

We’ve updated our donations processing to better meet the needs of those who want to give via cryptocurrencies. Last year, after we began to accept Bitcoin, we received over $290,000 in Bitcoin donations.

By allowing more types of cryptocurrency donations, we’re enabling donors to realize tax deductions and to contribute more funding to their chosen charity based on gains in the cryptocurrencies they hold.

We’re now accepting donations in the following cryptocurrencies:

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Ethereum Classic (ETC)
• Litecoin (LTC)
• 0x (ZRX)

We’ve built different pages for donating based on where you’d like to direct your support. To donate cryptocurrency, click the option you prefer:

• Donate cryptocurrencies to our top charities
• Donate cryptocurrencies to our standout charities
• Donate cryptocurrencies to GiveWell’s operating expenses

If you have any questions or would like to donate in a currency not listed above, please reach out to us at donations@givewell.org.

If you have questions about the different options for directing your donation (top charities, standout charities, or operating expenses), please let us know.

The post We’ve added more options for cryptocurrency donors appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

We’ve updated our donations processing to better meet the needs of those who want to give via cryptocurrencies. Last year, after we began to accept Bitcoin, we received over $290,000 in Bitcoin donations.

By allowing more types of cryptocurrency donations, we’re enabling donors to realize tax deductions and to contribute more funding to their chosen charity based on gains in the cryptocurrencies they hold.

We’re now accepting donations in the following cryptocurrencies:

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Ethereum Classic (ETC)
• Litecoin (LTC)
• 0x (ZRX)

We’ve built different pages for donating based on where you’d like to direct your support. To donate cryptocurrency, click the option you prefer:

• Donate cryptocurrencies to our top charities
• Donate cryptocurrencies to our standout charities
• Donate cryptocurrencies to GiveWell’s operating expenses

If you have any questions or would like to donate in a currency not listed above, please reach out to us at donations@givewell.org.

If you have questions about the different options for directing your donation (top charities, standout charities, or operating expenses), please let us know.

The post We’ve added more options for cryptocurrency donors appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Last week, we published an updated analysis on “spillover” effects of GiveDirectly‘s cash transfer program: i.e., effects that cash transfers may have on people who don’t receive cash transfers but who live nearby those who do receive cash transfers.1For more context on this topic, see our May 2018 blog post. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We concluded: “[O]ur best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net.” (More)

Economist Berk Özler posted a series of tweets expressing concern over GiveWell’s research process for this report. We understood his major questions to be:

1. Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key study it relied on was public? Is this consistent with GiveWell’s commitment to transparency? Has GiveWell done this in other cases?
2. Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects?
3. Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Does this imply that GiveWell does not value effects on other outcomes?

These questions apply to GiveWell’s research process generally, not just our spillovers analysis, so the discussion below addresses topics such as:

• When do our recommendations rely on private information, and why?
• How do we decide on which evidence to review in our analyses of charities’ impact?
• How do we decide which outcomes to include in our cost-effectiveness analyses?

Finally, this feedback led us to realize a communication mistake we made: our initial report did not communicate as clearly as it should have that we were specifically estimating spillovers of GiveDirectly’s current program, not commenting on spillovers of cash transfers in general. We will now revise the report to clarify this.

Note: It may be difficult to follow some of the details of this post without having read our report on the spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers.

Summary

In brief, our responses to Özler’s questions are:

• Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key paper it relied on was public? One of our major goals is to allocate money to charities as effectively as possible. Sometimes, research we learn about cannot yet be made public but we believe it should affect our recommendations. In these cases, we incorporate the private information into our recommendations and we are explicit about how it is affecting our views. We expect that private results may be more likely to change but nonetheless believe that they contain useful information; we believe ignoring such results because they are private would lead us to reach less accurate conclusions. For another recent example of an important conclusion that relied on private results, see our update on the preliminary (private) results from a study on No Lean Season, which was key to the decision to remove No Lean Season as a top charity in 2018. We discuss other examples below.
• Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects? In general, our analyses aim to estimate the impact of programs as implemented by particular charities. The goal of our spillovers analysis is to make our best guess about the size of spillover effects caused by GiveDirectly’s programs in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. We are not trying to communicate an opinion on the size of spillover effects of cash transfers in other countries or in development economics more broadly. Therefore, our analysis places substantially more weight on studies that are most similar to GiveDirectly’s program on basic characteristics such as geographic location and program type. Correspondingly, we place little weight on papers that do not meet these criteria. However, we’d welcome additional information that would help us improve our future decisionmaking about which papers to put the most weight on in our analyses.
• Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Our cost-effectiveness models focus on key outcomes that we expect to drive the bulk of the welfare effects of a program. In the case of our spillovers analysis, we believe the two most relevant outcomes for estimating spillover effects on welfare are consumption and subjective well-being. We chose to focus on consumption effects in large part because (a) this is consistent with how we model the impacts of other programs, such as deworming, and (b) distinguishing effects on subjective well-being from effects on consumption in a way that avoids double-counting benefits was too complex to do in the time we had available. It is possible that additional work on subjective well-being measures would meaningfully change how we assess benefits of programs (for this program and potentially others). This is a question we plan to return to in the future.

As noted above, our current best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers are minimal on net. However, we emphasize that our conclusion at this point is very tentative, and we hope to update our views next year if there is more public discussion or research on the areas of uncertainty highlighted in our analysis and/or if public debate about the studies covered in our report raises major issues we had not previously considered.

Details follow.

Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key paper it relied on was public?

In our analysis of the spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfer program, we place substantial weight on GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” (GE) study (as we noted we would do in May 2018,2“We plan to reassess the cash transfer evidence base and provide our updated conclusions in the next several months (by November 2018 at the latest). One reason that we do not plan to provide a comprehensive update sooner is that we expect upcoming midline results from GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” study, a large and high-quality study explicitly designed to estimate spillover effects, will play a major role in our conclusions. Results from this study are expected to be released in the next few months.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); prior to seeing the study’s results) because:

• it is the study with the largest sample size,
• its methodology was designed to estimate both across-village and within-village spillover effects, and
• it is a direct study of a version of GiveDirectly’s program.

The details of this study are currently private, though we were able to share the headline results and methodology when we published our report.

This represents one example of a general policy we follow, which is to be willing to compromise to some degree on transparency in order to use the best information available to us to improve the quality of our recommendations. More on the reasoning behind this policy:

• Since our recommendations affect the allocation of over $100 million each year, the value of improving our recommendations by factoring in the best information (even if private) can be high. Every November we publish updates to our recommended charities so that donors giving in December and January (when the bulk of charitable giving occurs) can act on the most up-to-date information.
• We have ongoing communications with charities and researchers to learn about new information that could affect our recommendations. Private information (both positive and negative) has been important to our views on a number of occasions. Beyond the example of our spillovers analysis, early private results were key to our views on topics including:
  • No Lean Season in 2018 (negative result)3“In a preliminary analysis shared with GiveWell in September 2018, the researchers did not find evidence for a negative or positive impact on migration, and found no statistically significant impact on income and consumption.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Deworming in 2017 (positive result)4“We have seen preliminary, confidential results from a 15-year follow-up to Miguel and Kremer 2004. We are not yet able to discuss the results in detail, but they are broadly consistent with the findings from the 10-year follow-up analyzed in Baird et al. 2016.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_4").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_4", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Insecticide resistance in 2016 (modeling study)5“We have seen two modeling studies which model clinical malaria outcomes in areas with ITN coverage for different levels of resistance based on experimental hut trial data. Of these two studies, the most recent study we have seen is unpublished (it was shared with us privately), but we prefer it because the insecticide resistance data it draws from is more recent and more comprehensive.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_5").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_5", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Development Media International in 2015 (negative result)6“The preliminary endline results did not find any effect of DMI’s program on child mortality (it was powered to detect a reduction of 15% or more), and it found substantially less effect on behavior change than was found at midline. We cannot publicly discuss the details of the endline results we have seen, because they are not yet finalised and because the finalised results will be embargoed prior to publication, but we have informally incorporated the results into our view of DMI’s program effectiveness.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_6").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_6", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Living Goods in 2014 (positive result)7“The researchers have published an abstract on the study, and shared a more in-depth report with us. The more in-depth report is not yet cleared for publication because the authors are seeking publication in an academic journal.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_7").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_7", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
• Note that in all of the above cases we worked with the relevant researchers to get permission to publicly share basic information about the results we were relying on, as we did in the case of the GE study.
• In all cases, we expected that full results would be made public in the future. Our understanding is that oftentimes early headline results from studies can be shared publicly while it may take substantially longer to publicly release full working papers because working papers are time-intensive to produce. We would be more hesitant to rely on a study that has been private for an unusually long period of time unless there were a good reason for it.
• However, relying on private studies conflicts to some extent with our goal to be transparent. In particular, we believe two major downsides of our policy with respect to private information are (a) early private results are more likely to contain errors, and (b) we are not able to benefit from public scrutiny and discussion of the research. We would have ideally seen a robust public discussion of the GE study before we released our recommendations in November, but the timeline for the public release of GE study results did not allow that. We look forward to closely following the public debate in the future and plan to update our views based on what we learn.
• Despite these limitations, we have generally found early, private results to be predictive of final, public results. This, combined with the fact that we believe private results have improved our recommendations on a number of occasions, leads us to believe that the benefits of our current policy on using private information outweigh the costs.

A few other notes:

• Although we provide a number of cases above in which we relied on private information, the vast majority of the key information we rely on for our charity recommendations is public.
• When private information is shared with us that implies a positive update about a charity’s program, we try to be especially attentive about potential conflicts of interest. In this case, there is potential for concern because the GE study was co-authored by Paul Niehaus, Chairman of GiveDirectly. We chose not to substantially limit the weight we place on the GE study because (a) a detailed pre-analysis plan was submitted for this study, and (b) three of the four co-authors (Ted Miguel, Johannes Haushofer, and Michael Walker) do not have an affiliation with GiveDirectly. We have no reason to believe that GiveDirectly’s involvement altered the analysis undertaken. In addition, the GE study team informed us that Paul Niehaus recused himself from final decisions about what the team communicated to GiveWell.
• When we published our report (about one week ago), we expected that some additional analysis from the GE study would be shared publicly soon (which we still expect). We do not yet have an exact date and do not know precisely what content will be shared (though we expect it to be similar to what was shared with us privately).

Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects?

Some general context on GiveWell’s research that we think is useful for understanding our approach in this case is:

• We are typically estimating the impact of programs as implemented by particular charities, not aiming to publish formal meta-analyses about program areas as a whole. As noted above, we believe we should have communicated more clearly about this in our original report on spillovers and we will revise the report to clarify.
• We focus our limited time on the research that we think is most likely to affect our decisions, so our style of analysis is often different from what is typically seen in academia. (We think the differences in the kind of work we do is captured well by a relevant Rachel Glennerster blog post.)

Consistent with the above, the goal of our spillovers analysis was to make a best guess for the size of the spillover effect of GiveDirectly’s (GD’s) program in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda specifically.8This program provides $1,000 unconditional transfers and treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_8").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_8", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We are not trying to communicate an opinion on the size of spillover effects of cash transfers in other countries or development economics more broadly. If we were trying to do the latter, we would have considered a much wider range of literature.

We expect that studies that are most similar to GD’s program on basic characteristics such as geographic location and program type will be most useful for predicting spillovers in the GD context. So, we prioritize looking at studies that 1) took place in sub-Saharan Africa, and 2) evaluate unconditional cash transfer programs (further explanation in footnote).9On (1): Our understanding is that the nature and size of spillover effects is likely to be highly dependent on the context studied, for example because the extent to which village economies are integrated might differ substantially across contexts (e.g. how close households are to larger markets outside of the village in which they live, how easily goods can be transported, etc.).
On (2): We expect that providing cash transfers conditional on behavioral choices is a fairly different intervention from providing unconditional cash transfers, and so may have different spillover effects. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_9").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_9", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We would welcome additional engagement on this topic: that is, (a) to what extent should we believe that effects estimated in studies not meeting these criteria would apply to GD’s cash transfer programs, and (b) are there other criteria that we should have used?

A further factor that causes us to put more weight on the five studies we chose to review deeply is that they all study transfers distributed by GD, which we see as increasing their relevance to GD’s current work (though the specifics of the programs that were studied vary from GD’s current program). We believe that studies that do not meet the above criteria could affect our views on spillovers of GD’s program to some extent, but they would receive lower weight in our conclusions since they are less directly relevant to GD’s program.

We saw further review of studies that did not meet the above criteria as lower priority than a number of other analyses that we think would be more likely to shift our bottom line estimate of the spillovers of GD’s program. Even though we focused on the subset of studies most relevant to GD’s program, we were not able to combine their results to create a reasonable explicit model of spillover effects because we found that key questions were not answered by the available data (our attempt at an explicit model is in the following footnote).10We tried to create such an explicit model here (explanation here). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); One fundamental challenge is that we are trying to apply estimates of “within-village” spillover effects to predict across-village spillover effects.11GiveDirectly treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_11").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Additional complications are described here.

More on why we placed little weight on particular studies that Özler highlighted in his comments:12Note on terminology: In our spillovers analysis report, we talk about studies in terms of “inclusion” and “exclusion.” We may use the term “exclude” differently than it is sometimes used in, e.g., academic meta-analyses. When we say that we have excluded studies, we have typically lightly reviewed their results and placed little weight on them in our conclusions. We did not ignore them entirely, as may happen for papers excluded from an academic meta-analysis. To try to clarify this, in this blog post we have used the term “place little weight.” We will try to be attentive to this in future research that we publish. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

• We placed little weight on the following papers in our initial analysis for the reasons given in parentheses: Angelucci & DiGiorgi 2009 (conditional transfers, study took place in Mexico), Cunha et al. 2017 (study took place in Mexico), Filmer et al. 2018 (conditional transfers, study took place in the Philippines), and Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 (mix of conditional and unconditional transfers).
• In addition, the estimates of mental health effects on teenage schoolgirls in Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 seem like they would be relatively less useful for predicting the impacts of spillovers from cash transfers given to households, particularly in villages where almost all households receive transfers as is often the case in GD’s program.13We expect that local spillover effects via psychological mechanisms are less likely to occur with the current spatial distribution of GD’s program. In GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda, almost all households are treated within its target villages. In addition, the majority of villages within a region are treated in a block. Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 estimate spillover effects within enumeration areas (groups of several villages), and the authors believe that the “detrimental effects on the mental well-being of those randomly excluded from the program in intervention areas is consistent with the idea that an individual’s utility depends on her relative consumption (or income or status) within her peer group”, p.372. The spatial distribution of GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda makes it more likely that the majority of one’s local peer group receives the same treatment assignment. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_13").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_13", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Does this imply that GiveWell does not value effects on other outcomes?

Some general context on GiveWell’s research that we think is useful for understanding our approach in this case is:

• When modeling the cost-effectiveness of any program, there are typically a large number of outcomes that could be included in the model. In our analyses, we focus on the key outcomes that we expect to drive the bulk of the welfare effects of a program.
• For example, our core cost-effectiveness model primarily considers various programs’ effects on averting deaths and increasing consumption (either immediately or later in life). This means that, e.g., we do not include benefits of averting vision impairment in our cost-effectiveness model for vitamin A supplementation (in part because we expect those effects to be relatively small as a portion of the overall impact of the program).
• This does not mean that we think excluded outcomes are unimportant. We focus on the largest impacts of programs because (a) we think they are a good proxy for the overall impact of the relevant programs, and (b) having fewer outcomes simplifies our analysis, which leads to less potential for error, better comparability between programs, and a more manageable time investment in modeling.
• For a deeper assessment of which program impacts we include and exclude from our core cost-effectiveness model and why, see our model’s “Inclusion/exclusion” sheet.14We have not yet added it, but we plan to add “Subjective well-being” under the list of outcomes excluded in the “Cross-cutting / Structural” section of the sheet, since it may be relevant to all programs. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_14").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_14", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We aim to include outcomes that can be justified by evidence, feasibly modeled, and are consistent with how we handle other program outcomes. We revisit our list of excluded outcomes periodically to assess whether such outcomes could lead to a major shift in our cost-effectiveness estimate for a particular program.

In our spillovers analysis, we applied the above principles to try to identify the key welfare effects. Among the main five studies we reviewed on spillovers, it seems like the two most relevant outcomes are consumption and subjective well-being. We chose to focus on consumption for the following reasons:

• Assessing the effects of cash transfers on consumption (rather than subjective well-being) is consistent with how we model the welfare effects of other programs that we think increase consumption on expectation, such as deworming.
• Distinguishing effects on subjective well-being from effects on consumption in order to avoid double-counting benefits was too complex to do in the time we had available. It seems intuitively likely that standards of living (proxied by consumption) affect subjective well-being. In the Haushofer and Shapiro studies and in the GE study, the spillover effects act in the same direction for both consumption and subjective well-being. We do not think it would be appropriate to simply add subjective well-being effects into our model over and above effects on consumption since that risks double-counting benefits.
• We do not have a strong argument that consumption is a more robust proxy for “true well-being” than subjective well-being, but given that consumption effects can be more easily compared across our programs we have chosen it as the default option at this point.

We hope to broadly revisit in the future whether we should be placing more weight on measures of subjective well-being across programs. It is possible that additional work on subjective well-being measures would meaningfully change how we assess benefits of programs (for this program and potentially others).

Examples of our questions about how to interpret subjective well-being effects in the cash spillovers literature include:

• In the Haushofer and Shapiro studies, how should we interpret each of the underlying components of the subjective well-being indices? For example, how does self-reported life satisfaction map onto utility versus self-reported happiness?
• In Haushofer, Reisinger, & Shapiro 2015, there is a statistically significant negative spillover effect on life-satisfaction, but there are no statistically significant effects on happiness, depression, stress, cortisol levels or the overall subjective well-being index (column (4) of Table 1). How should we interpret these findings?

Next steps

• We hope that there is more public discussion on some of the policy-relevant questions we highlighted in our report and on the other points of uncertainty highlighted throughout this post. Our conclusions on spillovers are very tentative and could be affected substantially by more analysis, so we would greatly appreciate any feedback or pointers to relevant work.15If you are aware of relevant analyses or studies that we have not covered here, please let us know at info@givewell.org. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_15").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_15", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
• We are planning to follow up with Dr. Özler to better understand his views on spillover effects of cash transfers. We have appreciated his previous blog posts on this topic and want to ensure we are getting multiple perspectives on the relevant issues.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ For more context on this topic, see our May 2018 blog post. 2. ↑ “We plan to reassess the cash transfer evidence base and provide our updated conclusions in the next several months (by November 2018 at the latest). One reason that we do not plan to provide a comprehensive update sooner is that we expect upcoming midline results from GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” study, a large and high-quality study explicitly designed to estimate spillover effects, will play a major role in our conclusions. Results from this study are expected to be released in the next few months.” (More.) 3. ↑ “In a preliminary analysis shared with GiveWell in September 2018, the researchers did not find evidence for a negative or positive impact on migration, and found no statistically significant impact on income and consumption.” (More.) 4. ↑ “We have seen preliminary, confidential results from a 15-year follow-up to Miguel and Kremer 2004. We are not yet able to discuss the results in detail, but they are broadly consistent with the findings from the 10-year follow-up analyzed in Baird et al. 2016.” (More.) 5. ↑ “We have seen two modeling studies which model clinical malaria outcomes in areas with ITN coverage for different levels of resistance based on experimental hut trial data. Of these two studies, the most recent study we have seen is unpublished (it was shared with us privately), but we prefer it because the insecticide resistance data it draws from is more recent and more comprehensive.” (More.) 6. ↑ “The preliminary endline results did not find any effect of DMI’s program on child mortality (it was powered to detect a reduction of 15% or more), and it found substantially less effect on behavior change than was found at midline. We cannot publicly discuss the details of the endline results we have seen, because they are not yet finalised and because the finalised results will be embargoed prior to publication, but we have informally incorporated the results into our view of DMI’s program effectiveness.” (More.) 7. ↑ “The researchers have published an abstract on the study, and shared a more in-depth report with us. The more in-depth report is not yet cleared for publication because the authors are seeking publication in an academic journal.” (More.) 8. ↑ This program provides $1,000 unconditional transfers and treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). 9. ↑ On (1): Our understanding is that the nature and size of spillover effects is likely to be highly dependent on the context studied, for example because the extent to which village economies are integrated might differ substantially across contexts (e.g. how close households are to larger markets outside of the village in which they live, how easily goods can be transported, etc.).
On (2): We expect that providing cash transfers conditional on behavioral choices is a fairly different intervention from providing unconditional cash transfers, and so may have different spillover effects. 10. ↑ We tried to create such an explicit model here (explanation here). 11. ↑ GiveDirectly treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). 12. ↑ Note on terminology: In our spillovers analysis report, we talk about studies in terms of “inclusion” and “exclusion.” We may use the term “exclude” differently than it is sometimes used in, e.g., academic meta-analyses. When we say that we have excluded studies, we have typically lightly reviewed their results and placed little weight on them in our conclusions. We did not ignore them entirely, as may happen for papers excluded from an academic meta-analysis. To try to clarify this, in this blog post we have used the term “place little weight.” We will try to be attentive to this in future research that we publish. 13. ↑ We expect that local spillover effects via psychological mechanisms are less likely to occur with the current spatial distribution of GD’s program. In GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda, almost all households are treated within its target villages. In addition, the majority of villages within a region are treated in a block. Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 estimate spillover effects within enumeration areas (groups of several villages), and the authors believe that the “detrimental effects on the mental well-being of those randomly excluded from the program in intervention areas is consistent with the idea that an individual’s utility depends on her relative consumption (or income or status) within her peer group”, p.372. The spatial distribution of GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda makes it more likely that the majority of one’s local peer group receives the same treatment assignment. 14. ↑ We have not yet added it, but we plan to add “Subjective well-being” under the list of outcomes excluded in the “Cross-cutting / Structural” section of the sheet, since it may be relevant to all programs. 15. ↑ If you are aware of relevant analyses or studies that we have not covered here, please let us know at info@givewell.org. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Response to concerns about GiveWell’s spillovers analysis appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Last week, we published an updated analysis on "spillover" effects of GiveDirectly's cash transfer program: i.e., effects that cash transfers may have on people who don't receive cash transfers but who live nearby those who do receive cash transfers.((For more context on this topic, see our May 2018 blog post.)) We concluded: "[O]ur best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net." (More)

Economist Berk Özler posted a series of tweets expressing concern over GiveWell's research process for this report. We understood his major questions to be:

1. Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key study it relied on was public? Is this consistent with GiveWell's commitment to transparency? Has GiveWell done this in other cases?
2. Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects?
3. Why did GiveWell's analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Does this imply that GiveWell does not value effects on other outcomes?

These questions apply to GiveWell's research process generally, not just our spillovers analysis, so the discussion below addresses topics such as:

• When do our recommendations rely on private information, and why?
• How do we decide on which evidence to review in our analyses of charities' impact?
• How do we decide which outcomes to include in our cost-effectiveness analyses?

Finally, this feedback led us to realize a communication mistake we made: our initial report did not communicate as clearly as it should have that we were specifically estimating spillovers of GiveDirectly’s current program, not commenting on spillovers of cash transfers in general. We will now revise the report to clarify this.

Note: It may be difficult to follow some of the details of this post without having read our report on the spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers.

Read More

The post Response to concerns about GiveWell’s spillovers analysis appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Last week, we published an updated analysis on “spillover” effects of GiveDirectly‘s cash transfer program: i.e., effects that cash transfers may have on people who don’t receive cash transfers but who live nearby those who do receive cash transfers.1For more context on this topic, see our May 2018 blog post. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We concluded: “[O]ur best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net.” (More)

Economist Berk Özler posted a series of tweets expressing concern over GiveWell’s research process for this report. We understood his major questions to be:

1. Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key study it relied on was public? Is this consistent with GiveWell’s commitment to transparency? Has GiveWell done this in other cases?
2. Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects?
3. Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Does this imply that GiveWell does not value effects on other outcomes?

These questions apply to GiveWell’s research process generally, not just our spillovers analysis, so the discussion below addresses topics such as:

• When do our recommendations rely on private information, and why?
• How do we decide on which evidence to review in our analyses of charities’ impact?
• How do we decide which outcomes to include in our cost-effectiveness analyses?

Finally, this feedback led us to realize a communication mistake we made: our initial report did not communicate as clearly as it should have that we were specifically estimating spillovers of GiveDirectly’s current program, not commenting on spillovers of cash transfers in general. We will now revise the report to clarify this.

Note: It may be difficult to follow some of the details of this post without having read our report on the spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers.

Summary

In brief, our responses to Özler’s questions are:

• Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key paper it relied on was public? One of our major goals is to allocate money to charities as effectively as possible. Sometimes, research we learn about cannot yet be made public but we believe it should affect our recommendations. In these cases, we incorporate the private information into our recommendations and we are explicit about how it is affecting our views. We expect that private results may be more likely to change but nonetheless believe that they contain useful information; we believe ignoring such results because they are private would lead us to reach less accurate conclusions. For another recent example of an important conclusion that relied on private results, see our update on the preliminary (private) results from a study on No Lean Season, which was key to the decision to remove No Lean Season as a top charity in 2018. We discuss other examples below.
• Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects? In general, our analyses aim to estimate the impact of programs as implemented by particular charities. The goal of our spillovers analysis is to make our best guess about the size of spillover effects caused by GiveDirectly’s programs in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. We are not trying to communicate an opinion on the size of spillover effects of cash transfers in other countries or in development economics more broadly. Therefore, our analysis places substantially more weight on studies that are most similar to GiveDirectly’s program on basic characteristics such as geographic location and program type. Correspondingly, we place little weight on papers that do not meet these criteria. However, we’d welcome additional information that would help us improve our future decisionmaking about which papers to put the most weight on in our analyses.
• Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Our cost-effectiveness models focus on key outcomes that we expect to drive the bulk of the welfare effects of a program. In the case of our spillovers analysis, we believe the two most relevant outcomes for estimating spillover effects on welfare are consumption and subjective well-being. We chose to focus on consumption effects in large part because (a) this is consistent with how we model the impacts of other programs, such as deworming, and (b) distinguishing effects on subjective well-being from effects on consumption in a way that avoids double-counting benefits was too complex to do in the time we had available. It is possible that additional work on subjective well-being measures would meaningfully change how we assess benefits of programs (for this program and potentially others). This is a question we plan to return to in the future.

As noted above, our current best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers are minimal on net. However, we emphasize that our conclusion at this point is very tentative, and we hope to update our views next year if there is more public discussion or research on the areas of uncertainty highlighted in our analysis and/or if public debate about the studies covered in our report raises major issues we had not previously considered.

Details follow.

Why did GiveWell publish its analysis on spillover effects before a key paper it relied on was public?

In our analysis of the spillover effects of GiveDirectly’s cash transfer program, we place substantial weight on GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” (GE) study (as we noted we would do in May 2018,2“We plan to reassess the cash transfer evidence base and provide our updated conclusions in the next several months (by November 2018 at the latest). One reason that we do not plan to provide a comprehensive update sooner is that we expect upcoming midline results from GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” study, a large and high-quality study explicitly designed to estimate spillover effects, will play a major role in our conclusions. Results from this study are expected to be released in the next few months.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); prior to seeing the study’s results) because:

• it is the study with the largest sample size,
• its methodology was designed to estimate both across-village and within-village spillover effects, and
• it is a direct study of a version of GiveDirectly’s program.

The details of this study are currently private, though we were able to share the headline results and methodology when we published our report.

This represents one example of a general policy we follow, which is to be willing to compromise to some degree on transparency in order to use the best information available to us to improve the quality of our recommendations. More on the reasoning behind this policy:

• Since our recommendations affect the allocation of over $100 million each year, the value of improving our recommendations by factoring in the best information (even if private) can be high. Every November we publish updates to our recommended charities so that donors giving in December and January (when the bulk of charitable giving occurs) can act on the most up-to-date information.
• We have ongoing communications with charities and researchers to learn about new information that could affect our recommendations. Private information (both positive and negative) has been important to our views on a number of occasions. Beyond the example of our spillovers analysis, early private results were key to our views on topics including:
  • No Lean Season in 2018 (negative result)3“In a preliminary analysis shared with GiveWell in September 2018, the researchers did not find evidence for a negative or positive impact on migration, and found no statistically significant impact on income and consumption.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Deworming in 2017 (positive result)4“We have seen preliminary, confidential results from a 15-year follow-up to Miguel and Kremer 2004. We are not yet able to discuss the results in detail, but they are broadly consistent with the findings from the 10-year follow-up analyzed in Baird et al. 2016.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_4").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_4", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Insecticide resistance in 2016 (modeling study)5“We have seen two modeling studies which model clinical malaria outcomes in areas with ITN coverage for different levels of resistance based on experimental hut trial data. Of these two studies, the most recent study we have seen is unpublished (it was shared with us privately), but we prefer it because the insecticide resistance data it draws from is more recent and more comprehensive.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_5").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_5", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Development Media International in 2015 (negative result)6“The preliminary endline results did not find any effect of DMI’s program on child mortality (it was powered to detect a reduction of 15% or more), and it found substantially less effect on behavior change than was found at midline. We cannot publicly discuss the details of the endline results we have seen, because they are not yet finalised and because the finalised results will be embargoed prior to publication, but we have informally incorporated the results into our view of DMI’s program effectiveness.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_6").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_6", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
  • Living Goods in 2014 (positive result)7“The researchers have published an abstract on the study, and shared a more in-depth report with us. The more in-depth report is not yet cleared for publication because the authors are seeking publication in an academic journal.” (More.) jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_7").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_7", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
• Note that in all of the above cases we worked with the relevant researchers to get permission to publicly share basic information about the results we were relying on, as we did in the case of the GE study.
• In all cases, we expected that full results would be made public in the future. Our understanding is that oftentimes early headline results from studies can be shared publicly while it may take substantially longer to publicly release full working papers because working papers are time-intensive to produce. We would be more hesitant to rely on a study that has been private for an unusually long period of time unless there were a good reason for it.
• However, relying on private studies conflicts to some extent with our goal to be transparent. In particular, we believe two major downsides of our policy with respect to private information are (a) early private results are more likely to contain errors, and (b) we are not able to benefit from public scrutiny and discussion of the research. We would have ideally seen a robust public discussion of the GE study before we released our recommendations in November, but the timeline for the public release of GE study results did not allow that. We look forward to closely following the public debate in the future and plan to update our views based on what we learn.
• Despite these limitations, we have generally found early, private results to be predictive of final, public results. This, combined with the fact that we believe private results have improved our recommendations on a number of occasions, leads us to believe that the benefits of our current policy on using private information outweigh the costs.

A few other notes:

• Although we provide a number of cases above in which we relied on private information, the vast majority of the key information we rely on for our charity recommendations is public.
• When private information is shared with us that implies a positive update about a charity’s program, we try to be especially attentive about potential conflicts of interest. In this case, there is potential for concern because the GE study was co-authored by Paul Niehaus, Chairman of GiveDirectly. We chose not to substantially limit the weight we place on the GE study because (a) a detailed pre-analysis plan was submitted for this study, and (b) three of the four co-authors (Ted Miguel, Johannes Haushofer, and Michael Walker) do not have an affiliation with GiveDirectly. We have no reason to believe that GiveDirectly’s involvement altered the analysis undertaken. In addition, the GE study team informed us that Paul Niehaus recused himself from final decisions about what the team communicated to GiveWell.
• When we published our report (about one week ago), we expected that some additional analysis from the GE study would be shared publicly soon (which we still expect). We do not yet have an exact date and do not know precisely what content will be shared (though we expect it to be similar to what was shared with us privately).

Why did GiveWell place little weight on some papers in its analysis of spillover effects?

Some general context on GiveWell’s research that we think is useful for understanding our approach in this case is:

• We are typically estimating the impact of programs as implemented by particular charities, not aiming to publish formal meta-analyses about program areas as a whole. As noted above, we believe we should have communicated more clearly about this in our original report on spillovers and we will revise the report to clarify.
• We focus our limited time on the research that we think is most likely to affect our decisions, so our style of analysis is often different from what is typically seen in academia. (We think the differences in the kind of work we do is captured well by a relevant Rachel Glennerster blog post.)

Consistent with the above, the goal of our spillovers analysis was to make a best guess for the size of the spillover effect of GiveDirectly’s (GD’s) program in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda specifically.8This program provides $1,000 unconditional transfers and treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_8").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_8", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We are not trying to communicate an opinion on the size of spillover effects of cash transfers in other countries or development economics more broadly. If we were trying to do the latter, we would have considered a much wider range of literature.

We expect that studies that are most similar to GD’s program on basic characteristics such as geographic location and program type will be most useful for predicting spillovers in the GD context. So, we prioritize looking at studies that 1) took place in sub-Saharan Africa, and 2) evaluate unconditional cash transfer programs (further explanation in footnote).9On (1): Our understanding is that the nature and size of spillover effects is likely to be highly dependent on the context studied, for example because the extent to which village economies are integrated might differ substantially across contexts (e.g. how close households are to larger markets outside of the village in which they live, how easily goods can be transported, etc.).
On (2): We expect that providing cash transfers conditional on behavioral choices is a fairly different intervention from providing unconditional cash transfers, and so may have different spillover effects. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_9").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_9", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We would welcome additional engagement on this topic: that is, (a) to what extent should we believe that effects estimated in studies not meeting these criteria would apply to GD’s cash transfer programs, and (b) are there other criteria that we should have used?

A further factor that causes us to put more weight on the five studies we chose to review deeply is that they all study transfers distributed by GD, which we see as increasing their relevance to GD’s current work (though the specifics of the programs that were studied vary from GD’s current program). We believe that studies that do not meet the above criteria could affect our views on spillovers of GD’s program to some extent, but they would receive lower weight in our conclusions since they are less directly relevant to GD’s program.

We saw further review of studies that did not meet the above criteria as lower priority than a number of other analyses that we think would be more likely to shift our bottom line estimate of the spillovers of GD’s program. Even though we focused on the subset of studies most relevant to GD’s program, we were not able to combine their results to create a reasonable explicit model of spillover effects because we found that key questions were not answered by the available data (our attempt at an explicit model is in the following footnote).10We tried to create such an explicit model here (explanation here). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); One fundamental challenge is that we are trying to apply estimates of “within-village” spillover effects to predict across-village spillover effects.11GiveDirectly treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_11").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Additional complications are described here.

More on why we placed little weight on particular studies that Özler highlighted in his comments:12Note on terminology: In our spillovers analysis report, we talk about studies in terms of “inclusion” and “exclusion.” We may use the term “exclude” differently than it is sometimes used in, e.g., academic meta-analyses. When we say that we have excluded studies, we have typically lightly reviewed their results and placed little weight on them in our conclusions. We did not ignore them entirely, as may happen for papers excluded from an academic meta-analysis. To try to clarify this, in this blog post we have used the term “place little weight.” We will try to be attentive to this in future research that we publish. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

• We placed little weight on the following papers in our initial analysis for the reasons given in parentheses: Angelucci & DiGiorgi 2009 (conditional transfers, study took place in Mexico), Cunha et al. 2017 (study took place in Mexico), Filmer et al. 2018 (conditional transfers, study took place in the Philippines), and Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 (mix of conditional and unconditional transfers).
• In addition, the estimates of mental health effects on teenage schoolgirls in Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 seem like they would be relatively less useful for predicting the impacts of spillovers from cash transfers given to households, particularly in villages where almost all households receive transfers as is often the case in GD’s program.13We expect that local spillover effects via psychological mechanisms are less likely to occur with the current spatial distribution of GD’s program. In GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda, almost all households are treated within its target villages. In addition, the majority of villages within a region are treated in a block. Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 estimate spillover effects within enumeration areas (groups of several villages), and the authors believe that the “detrimental effects on the mental well-being of those randomly excluded from the program in intervention areas is consistent with the idea that an individual’s utility depends on her relative consumption (or income or status) within her peer group”, p.372. The spatial distribution of GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda makes it more likely that the majority of one’s local peer group receives the same treatment assignment. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_13").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_13", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Why did GiveWell’s analysis of spillovers focus on effects on consumption? Does this imply that GiveWell does not value effects on other outcomes?

Some general context on GiveWell’s research that we think is useful for understanding our approach in this case is:

• When modeling the cost-effectiveness of any program, there are typically a large number of outcomes that could be included in the model. In our analyses, we focus on the key outcomes that we expect to drive the bulk of the welfare effects of a program.
• For example, our core cost-effectiveness model primarily considers various programs’ effects on averting deaths and increasing consumption (either immediately or later in life). This means that, e.g., we do not include benefits of averting vision impairment in our cost-effectiveness model for vitamin A supplementation (in part because we expect those effects to be relatively small as a portion of the overall impact of the program).
• This does not mean that we think excluded outcomes are unimportant. We focus on the largest impacts of programs because (a) we think they are a good proxy for the overall impact of the relevant programs, and (b) having fewer outcomes simplifies our analysis, which leads to less potential for error, better comparability between programs, and a more manageable time investment in modeling.
• For a deeper assessment of which program impacts we include and exclude from our core cost-effectiveness model and why, see our model’s “Inclusion/exclusion” sheet.14We have not yet added it, but we plan to add “Subjective well-being” under the list of outcomes excluded in the “Cross-cutting / Structural” section of the sheet, since it may be relevant to all programs. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_14").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_14", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); We aim to include outcomes that can be justified by evidence, feasibly modeled, and are consistent with how we handle other program outcomes. We revisit our list of excluded outcomes periodically to assess whether such outcomes could lead to a major shift in our cost-effectiveness estimate for a particular program.

In our spillovers analysis, we applied the above principles to try to identify the key welfare effects. Among the main five studies we reviewed on spillovers, it seems like the two most relevant outcomes are consumption and subjective well-being. We chose to focus on consumption for the following reasons:

• Assessing the effects of cash transfers on consumption (rather than subjective well-being) is consistent with how we model the welfare effects of other programs that we think increase consumption on expectation, such as deworming.
• Distinguishing effects on subjective well-being from effects on consumption in order to avoid double-counting benefits was too complex to do in the time we had available. It seems intuitively likely that standards of living (proxied by consumption) affect subjective well-being. In the Haushofer and Shapiro studies and in the GE study, the spillover effects act in the same direction for both consumption and subjective well-being. We do not think it would be appropriate to simply add subjective well-being effects into our model over and above effects on consumption since that risks double-counting benefits.
• We do not have a strong argument that consumption is a more robust proxy for “true well-being” than subjective well-being, but given that consumption effects can be more easily compared across our programs we have chosen it as the default option at this point.

We hope to broadly revisit in the future whether we should be placing more weight on measures of subjective well-being across programs. It is possible that additional work on subjective well-being measures would meaningfully change how we assess benefits of programs (for this program and potentially others).

Examples of our questions about how to interpret subjective well-being effects in the cash spillovers literature include:

• In the Haushofer and Shapiro studies, how should we interpret each of the underlying components of the subjective well-being indices? For example, how does self-reported life satisfaction map onto utility versus self-reported happiness?
• In Haushofer, Reisinger, & Shapiro 2015, there is a statistically significant negative spillover effect on life-satisfaction, but there are no statistically significant effects on happiness, depression, stress, cortisol levels or the overall subjective well-being index (column (4) of Table 1). How should we interpret these findings?

Next steps

• We hope that there is more public discussion on some of the policy-relevant questions we highlighted in our report and on the other points of uncertainty highlighted throughout this post. Our conclusions on spillovers are very tentative and could be affected substantially by more analysis, so we would greatly appreciate any feedback or pointers to relevant work.15If you are aware of relevant analyses or studies that we have not covered here, please let us know at info@givewell.org. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_15").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_15", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });
• We are planning to follow up with Dr. Özler to better understand his views on spillover effects of cash transfers. We have appreciated his previous blog posts on this topic and want to ensure we are getting multiple perspectives on the relevant issues.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ For more context on this topic, see our May 2018 blog post. 2. ↑ “We plan to reassess the cash transfer evidence base and provide our updated conclusions in the next several months (by November 2018 at the latest). One reason that we do not plan to provide a comprehensive update sooner is that we expect upcoming midline results from GiveDirectly’s “general equilibrium” study, a large and high-quality study explicitly designed to estimate spillover effects, will play a major role in our conclusions. Results from this study are expected to be released in the next few months.” (More.) 3. ↑ “In a preliminary analysis shared with GiveWell in September 2018, the researchers did not find evidence for a negative or positive impact on migration, and found no statistically significant impact on income and consumption.” (More.) 4. ↑ “We have seen preliminary, confidential results from a 15-year follow-up to Miguel and Kremer 2004. We are not yet able to discuss the results in detail, but they are broadly consistent with the findings from the 10-year follow-up analyzed in Baird et al. 2016.” (More.) 5. ↑ “We have seen two modeling studies which model clinical malaria outcomes in areas with ITN coverage for different levels of resistance based on experimental hut trial data. Of these two studies, the most recent study we have seen is unpublished (it was shared with us privately), but we prefer it because the insecticide resistance data it draws from is more recent and more comprehensive.” (More.) 6. ↑ “The preliminary endline results did not find any effect of DMI’s program on child mortality (it was powered to detect a reduction of 15% or more), and it found substantially less effect on behavior change than was found at midline. We cannot publicly discuss the details of the endline results we have seen, because they are not yet finalised and because the finalised results will be embargoed prior to publication, but we have informally incorporated the results into our view of DMI’s program effectiveness.” (More.) 7. ↑ “The researchers have published an abstract on the study, and shared a more in-depth report with us. The more in-depth report is not yet cleared for publication because the authors are seeking publication in an academic journal.” (More.) 8. ↑ This program provides $1,000 unconditional transfers and treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). 9. ↑ On (1): Our understanding is that the nature and size of spillover effects is likely to be highly dependent on the context studied, for example because the extent to which village economies are integrated might differ substantially across contexts (e.g. how close households are to larger markets outside of the village in which they live, how easily goods can be transported, etc.).
On (2): We expect that providing cash transfers conditional on behavioral choices is a fairly different intervention from providing unconditional cash transfers, and so may have different spillover effects. 10. ↑ We tried to create such an explicit model here (explanation here). 11. ↑ GiveDirectly treats almost all households within target villages in Kenya and Uganda (though still treats only eligible households in Rwanda). 12. ↑ Note on terminology: In our spillovers analysis report, we talk about studies in terms of “inclusion” and “exclusion.” We may use the term “exclude” differently than it is sometimes used in, e.g., academic meta-analyses. When we say that we have excluded studies, we have typically lightly reviewed their results and placed little weight on them in our conclusions. We did not ignore them entirely, as may happen for papers excluded from an academic meta-analysis. To try to clarify this, in this blog post we have used the term “place little weight.” We will try to be attentive to this in future research that we publish. 13. ↑ We expect that local spillover effects via psychological mechanisms are less likely to occur with the current spatial distribution of GD’s program. In GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda, almost all households are treated within its target villages. In addition, the majority of villages within a region are treated in a block. Baird, de Hoop, and Özler 2013 estimate spillover effects within enumeration areas (groups of several villages), and the authors believe that the “detrimental effects on the mental well-being of those randomly excluded from the program in intervention areas is consistent with the idea that an individual’s utility depends on her relative consumption (or income or status) within her peer group”, p.372. The spatial distribution of GD’s program in Kenya and Uganda makes it more likely that the majority of one’s local peer group receives the same treatment assignment. 14. ↑ We have not yet added it, but we plan to add “Subjective well-being” under the list of outcomes excluded in the “Cross-cutting / Structural” section of the sheet, since it may be relevant to all programs. 15. ↑ If you are aware of relevant analyses or studies that we have not covered here, please let us know at info@givewell.org. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Response to concerns about GiveWell’s spillovers analysis appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

We’re excited to share our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We recommend eight top charities, all of which we also recommended last year.

Our bottom line

We recommend three top charities implementing programs whose primary benefit is reducing deaths. They are:

• Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program
• Helen Keller International (HKI)’s vitamin A supplementation (VAS) program
• Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

Five of our top charities implement programs that aim to increase recipients’ incomes and consumption. They are:

• Evidence Action’s Deworm the World Initiative
• Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)
• Sightsavers’ deworming program
• END Fund’s deworming program
• GiveDirectly

These charities represent the best opportunities we’re aware of to help people, according to our criteria. We expect GiveWell’s recommendations to direct more than $100 million to these organizations collectively over the next year. We expect our top charities to be able to effectively absorb hundreds of millions of dollars beyond that amount.

Our list of top charities is the same as it was last year, with the exception of Evidence Action’s No Lean Season. We removed No Lean Season from the list following our review of the results of a 2017 study of the program.

We also recognize a group of standout charities. We believe these charities are implementing programs that are evidence-backed and may be extremely cost-effective. However, we do not feel as confident in the impact of these organizations as we do in our top charities. We provide more information about our standout organizations here.

Where do we recommend donors give?

• We recommend that donors choose the “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” option on our donation forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. If we had additional funds to allocate now, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.
• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you consider designating 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations.

How should donors give?

• For donors giving up to $1,000, we recommend donating by credit card here.
• If you’re planning to give more than $1,000, we recommend donating by check, bank transfer, or securities transfer.
• This page has additional options for donating. Check out our tips for giving efficiently to maximize the impact of your donation.

Conference call to discuss recommendations

We’re holding a conference call on Tuesday, December 4, at 12pm ET/9am PT to discuss our latest recommendations and to answer any questions you have. Sign up here to join the call.

Additional details

Below, we provide:

• An overview of the research we conducted in 2018 that was directly relevant to these recommendations. More
• An explanation of changes to our recommended charity list and of major updates in the past year. More
• The funding allocation that we are recommending to Good Ventures and our top charities’ remaining room for more funding. More
• Our recommendations for people interested in supporting our top charities. More
  • The bottom line
  • Relevant factors for choosing between our top charities
  • Update on giving to support GiveWell’s operations

Our research process in 2018

We plan to summarize all of the research we completed this year in a future post as part of our annual review process. A major focus of 2018 was improving our recommendations in future years, in particular through our work on GiveWell Incubation Grants and completing intervention reports on promising programs.

Below, we highlight the key research that led to our current charity recommendations. This page describes our general process for conducting research.

• Following existing top charities. We followed the progress and plans of each of our 2017 top charities. We had several conversations with each organization and reviewed documents they shared with us. We published updated reviews of each of our top charities. Key information from this work is available in the following locations:
  • Our page summarizing changes at each of our top charities and standouts in 2018.
  • Our workbook with each charity’s funding needs and our estimates of the cost-effectiveness of filling each need.
  • Our full reviews for each charity are linked from this page.
• Staying up to date on the research on the interventions implemented by our top charities. Details on some of what we learned in the section below.
• Making extensive updates to our cost-effectiveness model and publishing 14 updates to the model over the course of the year. In addition to updating our cost-effectiveness model with information from the intervention research described above, we added a “country selection” tab to our cost-effectiveness analysis (so that users can toggle between overall and country-specific cost-effectiveness estimates); an “inclusion/exclusion” tab, which lists different items that we considered whether or not to account for in our cost-effectiveness analysis; and we explicitly modeled factors that could lead to wastage (charities failing to use the funds they receive to implement their programs effectively).
• Completing a review of Zusha! We completed our review of the Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation—Zusha! Road Safety Campaign and determined that it did not meet all of our criteria to be a top charity. We named Zusha! a standout charity.

Major updates from the last 12 months

Below, we summarize major updates across our recommended charities over the past year. For detailed information on what changed at each of our top and standout charities, see this page.

• We removed Evidence Action’s No Lean Season from our top charity list. At the end of 2017, we named No Lean Season, a program that provides loans to support seasonal migration in Bangladesh, as one of GiveWell’s top charities. This year, we updated our assessment of No Lean Season based on preliminary results we received from a 2017 study of the program. These results suggested the program did not successfully induce migration in the 2017 lean season. Taking this new information into account alongside previous studies of the program, we and Evidence Action no longer believe No Lean Season meets our top charity criteria. We provide more details on this decision in this blog post.
• We received better information about Sightsavers’ deworming program. In previous years, we had limited information from Sightsavers documenting how it knew that its deworming programs were effectively reaching their intended beneficiaries. This year, Sightsavers shared significantly more monitoring information with us. This additional information substantially increased our confidence in Sightsavers’ deworming program. This spreadsheet shows the monitoring we received from Sightsavers in 2018.
• We reviewed new research on the priority programs implemented by our top charities and updated our views and cost-effectiveness analyses accordingly. Examples of such updates include:
  • We reviewed new evidence on “spillover” effects of cash transfers (e.g., effects on non-recipients)—our best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net.
  • We improved our modeling of the developmental effects of nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention and investigated the potential for vitamin A supplementation to lead to developmental effects, which led to improvements in the estimated cost-effectiveness for each.
  • We added impacts of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in untreated populations to our analysis.
  • We reviewed new evidence on insecticide resistance, which led to a slight decrease in our estimate for the cost-effectiveness of nets.

Recommended allocation of funding for Good Ventures and top charities’ remaining room for more funding Allocation recommended to Good Ventures

Good Ventures is a large foundation with which GiveWell works closely; it has been a major supporter of GiveWell’s top charities since 2011. Each year, we provide recommendations to Good Ventures regarding how we believe it can most effectively allocate its grants to GiveWell’s recommended charities, in terms of the total amount donated (within the constraints of Good Ventures’ planning, based in part on the Open Philanthropy Project’s recommendations on how to allocate funding across time and across cause areas) as well as the distribution between recipient charities.

Because Good Ventures is a major funder that we expect to follow our recommendations, we think it’s important for other donors to take its actions into account; we also want to be transparent about the research that leads us to make our recommendations to Good Ventures. That said, Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our recommended charities, allocated as shown in the table below.

Charity Recommended allocation from Good Ventures Remaining room for more funding1This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Malaria Consortium (SMC program) $26.6 million $43.9 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) $10.4 million $27.0 million Sightsavers (deworming program) $9.7 million $1.6 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) $6.5 million $20.6 million Against Malaria Foundation $2.5 million $72.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative $2.5 million $16.9 million The END Fund (deworming program) $2.5 million $45.8 million GiveDirectly $2.5 million >$100 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined)

We discuss our process for making our recommendation to Good Ventures in detail in this blog post.

Allocation of GiveWell discretionary funds

As part of reviewing our top charities’ funding gaps to make a recommendation to Good Ventures, we also decided how to allocate the $1.1 million in discretionary funding we currently hold. The latter comes from donors who chose to donate to “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” in recent months. We decided to allocate this funding to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program, due to how large and cost-effective we believe Malaria Consortium’s funding gap is.

Top charities’ remaining room for more funding

Although we are expecting to direct a significant amount of funding to our top charities ($65.1 million between Good Ventures and our discretionary funding), we believe that nearly all of our top charities could productively absorb considerably more funding than we expect them to receive from Good Ventures, our discretionary funding, and additional donations we direct based on our recommendation. This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding gaps by charity.

Our recommendation for donors The bottom line

• We recommend that donors choose the option to support “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” on our donate forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good. We take into account charities’ funding needs and donations they have received from other sources when deciding where to grant discretionary funds. (The principles we outline in this post are indicative of how we will make decisions on what to fund.) We then make these grants to the highest-value funding opportunities we see among our recommended charities. This page lists discretionary grants we have made since 2014.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. See below for information that may be helpful in deciding between charities we recommend.
• If we had additional funds to allocate, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.

Comparing our top charities

If you’re interested in donating to a specific top charity or charities, the following information may be helpful as you compare the options on our list. The table summarizes key facts about our top charities; column headings are defined below.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.2“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Organization Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin3For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Primary benefits of the intervention Quality of the organization’s communication Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Strong Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) See footnote4At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_4").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_4", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Strong Strong Helen Keller International (VAS program) 6.4 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Moderate Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Averting deaths Moderate Moderate Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak Sightsavers (deworming program) See footnote5We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_5").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_5", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Moderate The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak GiveDirectly 1 Immediately increasing income and assets Strong Strong

Definitions of column headings follow:

• Estimated cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin. We recommended that Good Ventures give $64.0 million to our top and standout charities, prioritizing the funding gaps that we believe are most cost-effective. The table above shows our estimates for the cost-effectiveness of additional donations to each charity, after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors).
• Primary benefits of the intervention. This column describes the major benefit we see to supporting a charity implementing this intervention.
• Quality of the organization’s communication. In most cases, we have have spent dozens or hundreds of hours interacting with our top charities. Here, we share our subjective impression of how well each organization has communicated with us. Our assessment of the quality of a charity’s communications is driven by whether we have been able to resolve our questions—particularly our less straightforward questions—about the organization’s activities, impact, and plans; how much time and effort was required to resolve those questions; how often the charity has sent us information that we later learned is inaccurate; and how direct we believe the charity is in acknowledging their weaknesses and mistakes.
  

  The organizations that stand out for high-quality communications are those that have most thoughtfully and completely answered our questions; brought problems with the program to our attention; and communicated clearly with us about timelines for providing additional information. High-quality communications reduce the time that we need to spend answering each question and therefore allow us to gain a greater degree of confidence in an organization. More importantly, our communication with an organization is one of the few ways that we can directly observe an organization’s general competence and thoughtfulness, so we see this as a proxy for unobserved ways in which the organization’s staff affect the impact of the program.

• Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems. The quality of the monitoring we have received from our top charities varies widely, although we believe it stands out from that of the majority of charities. Ideally, the monitoring data charities collect would be representative of the program overall (by sampling all or a random selection of locations or other relevant units); would measure the outcomes of greatest interest for understanding the impact of the program; and would use methods that result in a low risk of bias or fraud in the results. In assessing the quality of a charity’s monitoring, we ask ourselves, “how likely do we believe it is that there are substantive problems with the program that are not detected by this monitoring?”
  

  Monitoring results inform our cost-effectiveness analyses directly. In addition, we believe that the quality of an organization’s monitoring give us information that is not fully captured in these analyses. Similar to how we view communication quality, we believe that understanding how an organization designs and implements monitoring is a opportunity to observe its general competence and degree of openness to learning and program improvement.

Other key factors donors might want to consider when making their giving decision:

• As shown in the table above, our top charities implement programs with different primary benefits: some primarily avert deaths; others primarily increase incomes or consumption. Donors’ preference for programs that avert deaths relative to those that increase incomes (or how one weighs the value of averting a death at a given cost or increasing incomes a certain amount at a given cost) depends on their moral values. The cost-effectiveness estimates shown above rely on the GiveWell research team’s moral values. For more on how we (and others) compare the “good” accomplished by different programs, see this blog post. Donors may make a copy of our cost-effectiveness model to input their own moral weights and see how that impacts the relative cost-effectiveness of our top charities.
• The table above shows cost-effectiveness estimates for different charities. We put significant weight on cost-effectiveness figures, but they have limitations. Read more about how we use cost-effectiveness estimates in this blog post.
• Ultimately, donors are faced with a decision about how to weigh estimated cost-effectiveness (incorporating their moral values) against additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. We’ve written about this choice in the context of choosing between GiveDirectly and SCI in this 2016 blog post.
• Four of our top charities implement deworming programs. We recommend the provision of deworming treatments to children for its possible impact on recipients’ incomes in adulthood. We work in an expected value framework; in other words, we’re willing to support a higher-risk intervention if it has the potential for higher impact (more in this post about our worldview). Deworming is such an intervention. We believe that deworming may have very little impact, but that risk is outweighed by the possibility that it has very large impact, and it’s very cheap to implement. We describe our assessment of deworming in this summary blog post as well as this detailed post. Donors who have lower risk tolerance may choose not to support charities implementing deworming programs.
• The table above lists our views on the quality of each of our top charities’ monitoring. This 2016 blog post describes our view of AMF’s monitoring and may give donors more insight into how we think about monitoring quality.

Giving to support GiveWell’s operations

GiveWell is currently in a financially stable position. Over the next few years, we are planning to significantly increase our spending, driven by hiring additional research and outreach staff. We project that our revenue will approximately equal our expenses over the next few years; however, this projection includes an expectation of growth in the level of operating support we receive.

We retain our “excess assets policy” to ensure that if we fundraise for our own operations beyond a certain level, we will grant the excess to our recommended charities. In June of 2018, we applied our excess assets policy and designated $1.75 million in unrestricted funding for grants to recommended charities.

We cap the amount of operating support we ask Good Ventures to provide to GiveWell at 20 percent of our operating expenses, for reasons described here. We ask that donors who use GiveWell’s research consider the following:

• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. Having a strong base of consistent operations support allows us to make valuable hires when opportunities arise and to minimize staff time spent on fundraising for our operating expenses.
• If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you designate 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations. This can be done by selecting the option to “Add 10% to help fund GiveWell’s operations” on our credit card donation form or letting us know how you would like to designate your funding when giving another way.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. 2. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 3. ↑ For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. 4. ↑ At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. 5. ↑ We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

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The post Our updated top charities for giving season 2018 appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

We’re excited to share our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We recommend eight top charities, all of which we also recommended last year.

Our bottom line

We recommend three top charities implementing programs whose primary benefit is reducing deaths. They are:

• Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program
• Helen Keller International (HKI)’s vitamin A supplementation (VAS) program
• Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

Five of our top charities implement programs that aim to increase recipients’ incomes and consumption. They are:

• Evidence Action’s Deworm the World Initiative
• Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)
• Sightsavers’ deworming program
• END Fund’s deworming program
• GiveDirectly

These charities represent the best opportunities we’re aware of to help people, according to our criteria. We expect GiveWell’s recommendations to direct more than $100 million to these organizations collectively over the next year. We expect our top charities to be able to effectively absorb hundreds of millions of dollars beyond that amount.

Our list of top charities is the same as it was last year, with the exception of Evidence Action’s No Lean Season. We removed No Lean Season from the list following our review of the results of a 2017 study of the program.

We also recognize a group of standout charities. We believe these charities are implementing programs that are evidence-backed and may be extremely cost-effective. However, we do not feel as confident in the impact of these organizations as we do in our top charities. We provide more information about our standout organizations here.

Where do we recommend donors give?

• We recommend that donors choose the “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” option on our donation forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. If we had additional funds to allocate now, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.
• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you consider designating 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations.

How should donors give?

• For donors giving up to $1,000, we recommend donating by credit card here.
• If you’re planning to give more than $1,000, we recommend donating by check, bank transfer, or securities transfer.
• This page has additional options for donating. Check out our tips for giving efficiently to maximize the impact of your donation.

Conference call to discuss recommendations

We’re holding a conference call on Tuesday, December 4, at 12pm ET/9am PT to discuss our latest recommendations and to answer any questions you have. Sign up here to join the call.

Additional details

Below, we provide:

• An overview of the research we conducted in 2018 that was directly relevant to these recommendations. More
• An explanation of changes to our recommended charity list and of major updates in the past year. More
• The funding allocation that we are recommending to Good Ventures and our top charities’ remaining room for more funding. More
• Our recommendations for people interested in supporting our top charities. More
  • The bottom line
  • Relevant factors for choosing between our top charities
  • Update on giving to support GiveWell’s operations

Our research process in 2018

We plan to summarize all of the research we completed this year in a future post as part of our annual review process. A major focus of 2018 was improving our recommendations in future years, in particular through our work on GiveWell Incubation Grants and completing intervention reports on promising programs.

Below, we highlight the key research that led to our current charity recommendations. This page describes our general process for conducting research.

• Following existing top charities. We followed the progress and plans of each of our 2017 top charities. We had several conversations with each organization and reviewed documents they shared with us. We published updated reviews of each of our top charities. Key information from this work is available in the following locations:
  • Our page summarizing changes at each of our top charities and standouts in 2018.
  • Our workbook with each charity’s funding needs and our estimates of the cost-effectiveness of filling each need.
  • Our full reviews for each charity are linked from this page.
• Staying up to date on the research on the interventions implemented by our top charities. Details on some of what we learned in the section below.
• Making extensive updates to our cost-effectiveness model and publishing 14 updates to the model over the course of the year. In addition to updating our cost-effectiveness model with information from the intervention research described above, we added a “country selection” tab to our cost-effectiveness analysis (so that users can toggle between overall and country-specific cost-effectiveness estimates); an “inclusion/exclusion” tab, which lists different items that we considered whether or not to account for in our cost-effectiveness analysis; and we explicitly modeled factors that could lead to wastage (charities failing to use the funds they receive to implement their programs effectively).
• Completing a review of Zusha! We completed our review of the Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation—Zusha! Road Safety Campaign and determined that it did not meet all of our criteria to be a top charity. We named Zusha! a standout charity.

Major updates from the last 12 months

Below, we summarize major updates across our recommended charities over the past year. For detailed information on what changed at each of our top and standout charities, see this page.

• We removed Evidence Action’s No Lean Season from our top charity list. At the end of 2017, we named No Lean Season, a program that provides loans to support seasonal migration in Bangladesh, as one of GiveWell’s top charities. This year, we updated our assessment of No Lean Season based on preliminary results we received from a 2017 study of the program. These results suggested the program did not successfully induce migration in the 2017 lean season. Taking this new information into account alongside previous studies of the program, we and Evidence Action no longer believe No Lean Season meets our top charity criteria. We provide more details on this decision in this blog post.
• We received better information about Sightsavers’ deworming program. In previous years, we had limited information from Sightsavers documenting how it knew that its deworming programs were effectively reaching their intended beneficiaries. This year, Sightsavers shared significantly more monitoring information with us. This additional information substantially increased our confidence in Sightsavers’ deworming program. This spreadsheet shows the monitoring we received from Sightsavers in 2018.
• We reviewed new research on the priority programs implemented by our top charities and updated our views and cost-effectiveness analyses accordingly. Examples of such updates include:
  • We reviewed new evidence on “spillover” effects of cash transfers (e.g., effects on non-recipients)—our best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net.
  • We improved our modeling of the developmental effects of nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention and investigated the potential for vitamin A supplementation to lead to developmental effects, which led to improvements in the estimated cost-effectiveness for each.
  • We added impacts of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in untreated populations to our analysis.
  • We reviewed new evidence on insecticide resistance, which led to a slight decrease in our estimate for the cost-effectiveness of nets.

Recommended allocation of funding for Good Ventures and top charities’ remaining room for more funding Allocation recommended to Good Ventures

Good Ventures is a large foundation with which GiveWell works closely; it has been a major supporter of GiveWell’s top charities since 2011. Each year, we provide recommendations to Good Ventures regarding how we believe it can most effectively allocate its grants to GiveWell’s recommended charities, in terms of the total amount donated (within the constraints of Good Ventures’ planning, based in part on the Open Philanthropy Project’s recommendations on how to allocate funding across time and across cause areas) as well as the distribution between recipient charities.

Because Good Ventures is a major funder that we expect to follow our recommendations, we think it’s important for other donors to take its actions into account; we also want to be transparent about the research that leads us to make our recommendations to Good Ventures. That said, Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our recommended charities, allocated as shown in the table below.

Charity Recommended allocation from Good Ventures Remaining room for more funding1This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Malaria Consortium (SMC program) $26.6 million $43.9 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) $10.4 million $27.0 million Sightsavers (deworming program) $9.7 million $1.6 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) $6.5 million $20.6 million Against Malaria Foundation $2.5 million $72.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative $2.5 million $16.9 million The END Fund (deworming program) $2.5 million $45.8 million GiveDirectly $2.5 million >$100 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined)

We discuss our process for making our recommendation to Good Ventures in detail in this blog post.

Allocation of GiveWell discretionary funds

As part of reviewing our top charities’ funding gaps to make a recommendation to Good Ventures, we also decided how to allocate the $1.1 million in discretionary funding we currently hold. The latter comes from donors who chose to donate to “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” in recent months. We decided to allocate this funding to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program, due to how large and cost-effective we believe Malaria Consortium’s funding gap is.

Top charities’ remaining room for more funding

Although we are expecting to direct a significant amount of funding to our top charities ($65.1 million between Good Ventures and our discretionary funding), we believe that nearly all of our top charities could productively absorb considerably more funding than we expect them to receive from Good Ventures, our discretionary funding, and additional donations we direct based on our recommendation. This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding gaps by charity.

Our recommendation for donors The bottom line

• We recommend that donors choose the option to support “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” on our donate forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good. We take into account charities’ funding needs and donations they have received from other sources when deciding where to grant discretionary funds. (The principles we outline in this post are indicative of how we will make decisions on what to fund.) We then make these grants to the highest-value funding opportunities we see among our recommended charities. This page lists discretionary grants we have made since 2014.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. See below for information that may be helpful in deciding between charities we recommend.
• If we had additional funds to allocate, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.

Comparing our top charities

If you’re interested in donating to a specific top charity or charities, the following information may be helpful as you compare the options on our list. The table summarizes key facts about our top charities; column headings are defined below.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.2“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Organization Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin3For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Primary benefits of the intervention Quality of the organization’s communication Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Strong Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) See footnote4At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_4").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_4", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Strong Strong Helen Keller International (VAS program) 6.4 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Moderate Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Averting deaths Moderate Moderate Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak Sightsavers (deworming program) See footnote5We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_5").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_5", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Moderate The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak GiveDirectly 1 Immediately increasing income and assets Strong Strong

Definitions of column headings follow:

• Estimated cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin. We recommended that Good Ventures give $64.0 million to our top and standout charities, prioritizing the funding gaps that we believe are most cost-effective. The table above shows our estimates for the cost-effectiveness of additional donations to each charity, after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors).
• Primary benefits of the intervention. This column describes the major benefit we see to supporting a charity implementing this intervention.
• Quality of the organization’s communication. In most cases, we have have spent dozens or hundreds of hours interacting with our top charities. Here, we share our subjective impression of how well each organization has communicated with us. Our assessment of the quality of a charity’s communications is driven by whether we have been able to resolve our questions—particularly our less straightforward questions—about the organization’s activities, impact, and plans; how much time and effort was required to resolve those questions; how often the charity has sent us information that we later learned is inaccurate; and how direct we believe the charity is in acknowledging their weaknesses and mistakes.
  

  The organizations that stand out for high-quality communications are those that have most thoughtfully and completely answered our questions; brought problems with the program to our attention; and communicated clearly with us about timelines for providing additional information. High-quality communications reduce the time that we need to spend answering each question and therefore allow us to gain a greater degree of confidence in an organization. More importantly, our communication with an organization is one of the few ways that we can directly observe an organization’s general competence and thoughtfulness, so we see this as a proxy for unobserved ways in which the organization’s staff affect the impact of the program.

• Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems. The quality of the monitoring we have received from our top charities varies widely, although we believe it stands out from that of the majority of charities. Ideally, the monitoring data charities collect would be representative of the program overall (by sampling all or a random selection of locations or other relevant units); would measure the outcomes of greatest interest for understanding the impact of the program; and would use methods that result in a low risk of bias or fraud in the results. In assessing the quality of a charity’s monitoring, we ask ourselves, “how likely do we believe it is that there are substantive problems with the program that are not detected by this monitoring?”
  

  Monitoring results inform our cost-effectiveness analyses directly. In addition, we believe that the quality of an organization’s monitoring give us information that is not fully captured in these analyses. Similar to how we view communication quality, we believe that understanding how an organization designs and implements monitoring is a opportunity to observe its general competence and degree of openness to learning and program improvement.

Other key factors donors might want to consider when making their giving decision:

• As shown in the table above, our top charities implement programs with different primary benefits: some primarily avert deaths; others primarily increase incomes or consumption. Donors’ preference for programs that avert deaths relative to those that increase incomes (or how one weighs the value of averting a death at a given cost or increasing incomes a certain amount at a given cost) depends on their moral values. The cost-effectiveness estimates shown above rely on the GiveWell research team’s moral values. For more on how we (and others) compare the “good” accomplished by different programs, see this blog post. Donors may make a copy of our cost-effectiveness model to input their own moral weights and see how that impacts the relative cost-effectiveness of our top charities.
• The table above shows cost-effectiveness estimates for different charities. We put significant weight on cost-effectiveness figures, but they have limitations. Read more about how we use cost-effectiveness estimates in this blog post.
• Ultimately, donors are faced with a decision about how to weigh estimated cost-effectiveness (incorporating their moral values) against additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. We’ve written about this choice in the context of choosing between GiveDirectly and SCI in this 2016 blog post.
• Four of our top charities implement deworming programs. We recommend the provision of deworming treatments to children for its possible impact on recipients’ incomes in adulthood. We work in an expected value framework; in other words, we’re willing to support a higher-risk intervention if it has the potential for higher impact (more in this post about our worldview). Deworming is such an intervention. We believe that deworming may have very little impact, but that risk is outweighed by the possibility that it has very large impact, and it’s very cheap to implement. We describe our assessment of deworming in this summary blog post as well as this detailed post. Donors who have lower risk tolerance may choose not to support charities implementing deworming programs.
• The table above lists our views on the quality of each of our top charities’ monitoring. This 2016 blog post describes our view of AMF’s monitoring and may give donors more insight into how we think about monitoring quality.

Giving to support GiveWell’s operations

GiveWell is currently in a financially stable position. Over the next few years, we are planning to significantly increase our spending, driven by hiring additional research and outreach staff. We project that our revenue will approximately equal our expenses over the next few years; however, this projection includes an expectation of growth in the level of operating support we receive.

We retain our “excess assets policy” to ensure that if we fundraise for our own operations beyond a certain level, we will grant the excess to our recommended charities. In June of 2018, we applied our excess assets policy and designated $1.75 million in unrestricted funding for grants to recommended charities.

We cap the amount of operating support we ask Good Ventures to provide to GiveWell at 20 percent of our operating expenses, for reasons described here. We ask that donors who use GiveWell’s research consider the following:

• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. Having a strong base of consistent operations support allows us to make valuable hires when opportunities arise and to minimize staff time spent on fundraising for our operating expenses.
• If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you designate 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations. This can be done by selecting the option to “Add 10% to help fund GiveWell’s operations” on our credit card donation form or letting us know how you would like to designate your funding when giving another way.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. 2. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 3. ↑ For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. 4. ↑ At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. 5. ↑ We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

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The post Our updated top charities for giving season 2018 appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

We’re excited to share our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We recommend eight top charities, all of which we also recommended last year.

Our bottom line

We recommend three top charities implementing programs whose primary benefit is reducing deaths. They are:

• Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program
• Helen Keller International (HKI)’s vitamin A supplementation (VAS) program
• Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

Five of our top charities implement programs that aim to increase recipients’ incomes and consumption. They are:

• Evidence Action’s Deworm the World Initiative
• Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)
• Sightsavers’ deworming program
• END Fund’s deworming program
• GiveDirectly

These charities represent the best opportunities we’re aware of to help people, according to our criteria. We expect GiveWell’s recommendations to direct more than $100 million to these organizations collectively over the next year. We expect our top charities to be able to effectively absorb hundreds of millions of dollars beyond that amount.

Our list of top charities is the same as it was last year, with the exception of Evidence Action’s No Lean Season. We removed No Lean Season from the list following our review of the results of a 2017 study of the program.

We also recognize a group of standout charities. We believe these charities are implementing programs that are evidence-backed and may be extremely cost-effective. However, we do not feel as confident in the impact of these organizations as we do in our top charities. We provide more information about our standout organizations here.

Where do we recommend donors give?

• We recommend that donors choose the “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” option on our donation forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. If we had additional funds to allocate now, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.
• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you consider designating 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations.

How should donors give?

• For donors giving up to $1,000, we recommend donating by credit card here.
• If you’re planning to give more than $1,000, we recommend donating by check, bank transfer, or securities transfer.
• This page has additional options for donating. Check out our tips for giving efficiently to maximize the impact of your donation.

Conference call to discuss recommendations

We’re holding a conference call on Tuesday, December 4, at 12pm ET/9am PT to discuss our latest recommendations and to answer any questions you have. Sign up here to join the call.

Additional details

Below, we provide:

• An overview of the research we conducted in 2018 that was directly relevant to these recommendations. More
• An explanation of changes to our recommended charity list and of major updates in the past year. More
• The funding allocation that we are recommending to Good Ventures and our top charities’ remaining room for more funding. More
• Our recommendations for people interested in supporting our top charities. More
  • The bottom line
  • Relevant factors for choosing between our top charities
  • Update on giving to support GiveWell’s operations

Our research process in 2018

We plan to summarize all of the research we completed this year in a future post as part of our annual review process. A major focus of 2018 was improving our recommendations in future years, in particular through our work on GiveWell Incubation Grants and completing intervention reports on promising programs.

Below, we highlight the key research that led to our current charity recommendations. This page describes our general process for conducting research.

• Following existing top charities. We followed the progress and plans of each of our 2017 top charities. We had several conversations with each organization and reviewed documents they shared with us. We published updated reviews of each of our top charities. Key information from this work is available in the following locations:
  • Our page summarizing changes at each of our top charities and standouts in 2018.
  • Our workbook with each charity’s funding needs and our estimates of the cost-effectiveness of filling each need.
  • Our full reviews for each charity are linked from this page.
• Staying up to date on the research on the interventions implemented by our top charities. Details on some of what we learned in the section below.
• Making extensive updates to our cost-effectiveness model and publishing 14 updates to the model over the course of the year. In addition to updating our cost-effectiveness model with information from the intervention research described above, we added a “country selection” tab to our cost-effectiveness analysis (so that users can toggle between overall and country-specific cost-effectiveness estimates); an “inclusion/exclusion” tab, which lists different items that we considered whether or not to account for in our cost-effectiveness analysis; and we explicitly modeled factors that could lead to wastage (charities failing to use the funds they receive to implement their programs effectively).
• Completing a review of Zusha! We completed our review of the Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation—Zusha! Road Safety Campaign and determined that it did not meet all of our criteria to be a top charity. We named Zusha! a standout charity.

Major updates from the last 12 months

Below, we summarize major updates across our recommended charities over the past year. For detailed information on what changed at each of our top and standout charities, see this page.

• We removed Evidence Action’s No Lean Season from our top charity list. At the end of 2017, we named No Lean Season, a program that provides loans to support seasonal migration in Bangladesh, as one of GiveWell’s top charities. This year, we updated our assessment of No Lean Season based on preliminary results we received from a 2017 study of the program. These results suggested the program did not successfully induce migration in the 2017 lean season. Taking this new information into account alongside previous studies of the program, we and Evidence Action no longer believe No Lean Season meets our top charity criteria. We provide more details on this decision in this blog post.
• We received better information about Sightsavers’ deworming program. In previous years, we had limited information from Sightsavers documenting how it knew that its deworming programs were effectively reaching their intended beneficiaries. This year, Sightsavers shared significantly more monitoring information with us. This additional information substantially increased our confidence in Sightsavers’ deworming program. This spreadsheet shows the monitoring we received from Sightsavers in 2018.
• We reviewed new research on the priority programs implemented by our top charities and updated our views and cost-effectiveness analyses accordingly. Examples of such updates include:
  • We reviewed new evidence on “spillover” effects of cash transfers (e.g., effects on non-recipients)—our best guess is that negative or positive spillover effects of cash are minimal on net.
  • We improved our modeling of the developmental effects of nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention and investigated the potential for vitamin A supplementation to lead to developmental effects, which led to improvements in the estimated cost-effectiveness for each.
  • We added impacts of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in untreated populations to our analysis.
  • We reviewed new evidence on insecticide resistance, which led to a slight decrease in our estimate for the cost-effectiveness of nets.

Recommended allocation of funding for Good Ventures and top charities’ remaining room for more funding Allocation recommended to Good Ventures

Good Ventures is a large foundation with which GiveWell works closely; it has been a major supporter of GiveWell’s top charities since 2011. Each year, we provide recommendations to Good Ventures regarding how we believe it can most effectively allocate its grants to GiveWell’s recommended charities, in terms of the total amount donated (within the constraints of Good Ventures’ planning, based in part on the Open Philanthropy Project’s recommendations on how to allocate funding across time and across cause areas) as well as the distribution between recipient charities.

Because Good Ventures is a major funder that we expect to follow our recommendations, we think it’s important for other donors to take its actions into account; we also want to be transparent about the research that leads us to make our recommendations to Good Ventures. That said, Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our recommended charities, allocated as shown in the table below.

Charity Recommended allocation from Good Ventures Remaining room for more funding1This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Malaria Consortium (SMC program) $26.6 million $43.9 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) $10.4 million $27.0 million Sightsavers (deworming program) $9.7 million $1.6 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) $6.5 million $20.6 million Against Malaria Foundation $2.5 million $72.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative $2.5 million $16.9 million The END Fund (deworming program) $2.5 million $45.8 million GiveDirectly $2.5 million >$100 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined)

We discuss our process for making our recommendation to Good Ventures in detail in this blog post.

Allocation of GiveWell discretionary funds

As part of reviewing our top charities’ funding gaps to make a recommendation to Good Ventures, we also decided how to allocate the $1.1 million in discretionary funding we currently hold. The latter comes from donors who chose to donate to “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” in recent months. We decided to allocate this funding to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program, due to how large and cost-effective we believe Malaria Consortium’s funding gap is.

Top charities’ remaining room for more funding

Although we are expecting to direct a significant amount of funding to our top charities ($65.1 million between Good Ventures and our discretionary funding), we believe that nearly all of our top charities could productively absorb considerably more funding than we expect them to receive from Good Ventures, our discretionary funding, and additional donations we direct based on our recommendation. This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding gaps by charity.

Our recommendation for donors The bottom line

• We recommend that donors choose the option to support “Grants to recommended charities at GiveWell’s discretion” on our donate forms. We grant these funds quarterly to the GiveWell top charity or top charities where we believe they can do the most good. We take into account charities’ funding needs and donations they have received from other sources when deciding where to grant discretionary funds. (The principles we outline in this post are indicative of how we will make decisions on what to fund.) We then make these grants to the highest-value funding opportunities we see among our recommended charities. This page lists discretionary grants we have made since 2014.
• If you prefer to give to a specific charity, we believe that all of our top charities are outstanding and will use additional funding effectively. See below for information that may be helpful in deciding between charities we recommend.
• If we had additional funds to allocate, the most likely recipient would be Malaria Consortium to scale up its work providing seasonal malaria chemoprevention.

Comparing our top charities

If you’re interested in donating to a specific top charity or charities, the following information may be helpful as you compare the options on our list. The table summarizes key facts about our top charities; column headings are defined below.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.2“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Organization Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin3For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Primary benefits of the intervention Quality of the organization’s communication Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Strong Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) See footnote4At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_4").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_4", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Strong Strong Helen Keller International (VAS program) 6.4 Averting deaths of children under 5 Strong Moderate Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Averting deaths Moderate Moderate Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak Sightsavers (deworming program) See footnote5We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_5").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_5", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Moderate The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Possibly increasing income in adulthood Moderate Relatively weak GiveDirectly 1 Immediately increasing income and assets Strong Strong

Definitions of column headings follow:

• Estimated cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers) at the present margin. We recommended that Good Ventures give $64.0 million to our top and standout charities, prioritizing the funding gaps that we believe are most cost-effective. The table above shows our estimates for the cost-effectiveness of additional donations to each charity, after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors).
• Primary benefits of the intervention. This column describes the major benefit we see to supporting a charity implementing this intervention.
• Quality of the organization’s communication. In most cases, we have have spent dozens or hundreds of hours interacting with our top charities. Here, we share our subjective impression of how well each organization has communicated with us. Our assessment of the quality of a charity’s communications is driven by whether we have been able to resolve our questions—particularly our less straightforward questions—about the organization’s activities, impact, and plans; how much time and effort was required to resolve those questions; how often the charity has sent us information that we later learned is inaccurate; and how direct we believe the charity is in acknowledging their weaknesses and mistakes.
  

  The organizations that stand out for high-quality communications are those that have most thoughtfully and completely answered our questions; brought problems with the program to our attention; and communicated clearly with us about timelines for providing additional information. High-quality communications reduce the time that we need to spend answering each question and therefore allow us to gain a greater degree of confidence in an organization. More importantly, our communication with an organization is one of the few ways that we can directly observe an organization’s general competence and thoughtfulness, so we see this as a proxy for unobserved ways in which the organization’s staff affect the impact of the program.

• Ongoing monitoring and likelihood of detecting future problems. The quality of the monitoring we have received from our top charities varies widely, although we believe it stands out from that of the majority of charities. Ideally, the monitoring data charities collect would be representative of the program overall (by sampling all or a random selection of locations or other relevant units); would measure the outcomes of greatest interest for understanding the impact of the program; and would use methods that result in a low risk of bias or fraud in the results. In assessing the quality of a charity’s monitoring, we ask ourselves, “how likely do we believe it is that there are substantive problems with the program that are not detected by this monitoring?”
  

  Monitoring results inform our cost-effectiveness analyses directly. In addition, we believe that the quality of an organization’s monitoring give us information that is not fully captured in these analyses. Similar to how we view communication quality, we believe that understanding how an organization designs and implements monitoring is a opportunity to observe its general competence and degree of openness to learning and program improvement.

Other key factors donors might want to consider when making their giving decision:

• As shown in the table above, our top charities implement programs with different primary benefits: some primarily avert deaths; others primarily increase incomes or consumption. Donors’ preference for programs that avert deaths relative to those that increase incomes (or how one weighs the value of averting a death at a given cost or increasing incomes a certain amount at a given cost) depends on their moral values. The cost-effectiveness estimates shown above rely on the GiveWell research team’s moral values. For more on how we (and others) compare the “good” accomplished by different programs, see this blog post. Donors may make a copy of our cost-effectiveness model to input their own moral weights and see how that impacts the relative cost-effectiveness of our top charities.
• The table above shows cost-effectiveness estimates for different charities. We put significant weight on cost-effectiveness figures, but they have limitations. Read more about how we use cost-effectiveness estimates in this blog post.
• Ultimately, donors are faced with a decision about how to weigh estimated cost-effectiveness (incorporating their moral values) against additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. We’ve written about this choice in the context of choosing between GiveDirectly and SCI in this 2016 blog post.
• Four of our top charities implement deworming programs. We recommend the provision of deworming treatments to children for its possible impact on recipients’ incomes in adulthood. We work in an expected value framework; in other words, we’re willing to support a higher-risk intervention if it has the potential for higher impact (more in this post about our worldview). Deworming is such an intervention. We believe that deworming may have very little impact, but that risk is outweighed by the possibility that it has very large impact, and it’s very cheap to implement. We describe our assessment of deworming in this summary blog post as well as this detailed post. Donors who have lower risk tolerance may choose not to support charities implementing deworming programs.
• The table above lists our views on the quality of each of our top charities’ monitoring. This 2016 blog post describes our view of AMF’s monitoring and may give donors more insight into how we think about monitoring quality.

Giving to support GiveWell’s operations

GiveWell is currently in a financially stable position. Over the next few years, we are planning to significantly increase our spending, driven by hiring additional research and outreach staff. We project that our revenue will approximately equal our expenses over the next few years; however, this projection includes an expectation of growth in the level of operating support we receive.

We retain our “excess assets policy” to ensure that if we fundraise for our own operations beyond a certain level, we will grant the excess to our recommended charities. In June of 2018, we applied our excess assets policy and designated $1.75 million in unrestricted funding for grants to recommended charities.

We cap the amount of operating support we ask Good Ventures to provide to GiveWell at 20 percent of our operating expenses, for reasons described here. We ask that donors who use GiveWell’s research consider the following:

• If you have supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you maintain your support. Having a strong base of consistent operations support allows us to make valuable hires when opportunities arise and to minimize staff time spent on fundraising for our operating expenses.
• If you have not supported GiveWell’s operations in the past, we ask that you designate 10 percent of your donation to help fund GiveWell’s operations. This can be done by selecting the option to “Add 10% to help fund GiveWell’s operations” on our credit card donation form or letting us know how you would like to designate your funding when giving another way.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ This column displays our top charities’ remaining room for more funding, or the amount we believe they can use effectively, for the next three years (2019-2021), after accounting for the $64.0 million we’ve recommended that Good Ventures give (our recommendation won’t necessarily be followed, but we think it’s unlikely that differences will be large enough to affect our bottom-line recommendation to donors) and an additional $1.1 million from GiveWell’s discretionary funding. 2. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 3. ↑ For sources on the estimates included in this table, see this spreadsheet, “Cost-effectiveness results” tab. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to Good Ventures because they estimate cost-effectiveness on the margin, if Good Ventures were to follow our recommendations. 4. ↑ At the margin, we expect additional funding to Deworm the World Initiative to support its programs in Pakistan and Nigeria in 2021 as well as Deworm the World’s general reserves. We think these are broadly good uses of funds, but our cost-effectiveness model is not currently built to meaningfully model the cost-effectiveness of reserves. In the absence of more information, we would guess that additional funding to Deworm the World would be roughly in the range of our estimate for Deworm the World’s overall organizational cost-effectiveness (~15x as cost-effective as cash transfers), but we have not analyzed the details of additional spending at the current margin enough to be confident in that estimate. However, if Good Ventures generally follows our recommended allocation, we expect that Deworm the World will have sufficient funding to continue its most time-sensitive work and we can decide whether to fund other marginal opportunities at a later date. 5. ↑ We do not have a strong sense of the cost-effectiveness of additional funds to Sightsavers at the current margin. Our cost-effectiveness estimate of Sightsavers’ remaining funding gap is 15.4x as cost-effective as cash transfers, but this fails to capture a number of features particular to the program Sightsavers would fund on the margin. We would guess that the value of marginal funding to Sightsavers is roughly in the range of our overall estimate for Sightsavers of ~12x as cost-effective as cash transfers.

One major reason for our uncertainty follows. As discussed here, Sightsavers’ prioritization of how to spend additional funds differed substantially from what would be implied by our cost-effectiveness analysis, but we think that this discrepancy may largely be due to factors that our model does not capture or ways our model may be inaccurate; therefore, it is difficult to rely on our model to assess the cost-effectiveness of specific remaining country funding gaps.

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The post Our updated top charities for giving season 2018 appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Today, we announce our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We expect to direct over $100 million to the eight charities on our list as a result of our recommendation.

Good Ventures, a large foundation with which we work closely, is the largest single funder of our top charities. We make recommendations to Good Ventures each year for how much funding to provide to our top charities and how to allocate that funding among them. As this funding is significant, we think it’s important for other donors to take into account the recommendation we make to Good Ventures.

This blog post explains in detail how we decide what to recommend to Good Ventures and why; we want to be transparent about the research that leads us to our recommendations to Good Ventures. If you’re interested in a bottom-line recommendation for where to donate this year, please view our post with recommendations for non-Good Ventures donors.

Note that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

Summary

In this post, we discuss:

• How we decided how much funding to recommend Good Ventures provide to our top charities.
• Our recommendation for how Good Ventures should allocate that funding among our top charities, and how we arrived at that allocation:
  • Principles we followed
  • Our process

How we decided how much funding to recommend to Good Ventures

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our top charities and standout charities. The amount Good Ventures gives to our top charities is based in part on how the Open Philanthropy Project plans to allocate funding across time and across cause areas. (Read more about our relationships with Good Ventures and the Open Philanthropy Project here.)

The Open Philanthropy Project currently plans to allocate around 10% of its total available capital to “straightforward charity,” which it currently allocates to global health and development causes based on GiveWell’s recommendations. This 10% allocation includes two “buckets”—a fixed percentage of total giving each year of 5% and another “flexible” bucket of 5%, which can be spent down quickly (over a few years) or slowly (over many years). GiveWell’s recommendation that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million this year puts the flexible bucket on track to be spent down within the next 14 years.

We’re recommending $64.0 million this year to balance two considerations:

• As the world gets richer, giving opportunities in global health and development generally seem likely to get worse over time. This implies that giving now has a larger impact.
• In the coming years, GiveWell may find opportunities that are considerably more cost-effective than our current recommendations (e.g., among policy advocacy organizations). This would make spending in future years have a larger impact.

Our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

The table below summarizes how much funding we recommend Good Ventures grant to each of our top charities, along with our explicit cost-effectiveness estimate for each organization and organizational factors we don’t model explicitly that affect our assessment of impact.

As always, cost-effectiveness figures should be interpreted with caution.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.1“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3814_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3814_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Charity Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers)2“We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3814_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3814_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Organizational factors we don’t model explicitly3We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_3814_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_3814_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Recommended allocation Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Very strong $26.6 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) 14.6 Very strong $10.4 million Sightsavers (deworming program) 12.0 Moderate $9.7 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) 7.0 Strong $6.5 million Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Moderate $2.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Relatively weak $2.5 million The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Relatively weak $2.5 million GiveDirectly 1 Very strong $2.5 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined) Sum $64.0 million

The underlying objective of GiveWell’s allocation is to direct as much money as possible to the most cost-effective giving opportunities over the long run. (We aim to optimize cost-effectiveness, as defined broadly—we recognize the limitations of our cost-effectiveness model and consider additional factors in our assessment.) We relied on modeled cost-effectiveness figures as well as the organizational factors described above to inform our recommendations.

To meet this objective, our allocation this year was driven by the principles described below.

Principles we followed in arriving at this allocation

Principle 1: Put significant weight on our cost-effectiveness estimates. Our cost-effectiveness estimates incorporate a substantial amount of information relevant to our decisionmaking. While we recognize the high levels of uncertainty around our cost-effectiveness estimates, they are the single largest factor we take into consideration. More on how we use cost-effectiveness to inform our decisions here.

Principle 2: Consider additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. While our cost-effectiveness estimates are the best tool we know of to estimate the amount of good a charity accomplishes, we believe it’s infeasible to try to incorporate all relevant considerations into a single quantitative estimate. Subjective assessments that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness calculations but affect how much impact a charity has include:

• A charity’s ability to make good decisions on how to prioritize. Our top charities often take factors that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness estimates into account when deciding how to spend their limited budgets. We use our subjective assessment of how well charities answer our questions about their activities as a proxy for how well they make these decisions.
• Upside. Our top charities often perform activities that go beyond the scope of their direct work, such as conducting and sharing research that influences others, or raising funds for their programs from funders that would otherwise give to less cost-effective programs.

For the most part, we do not have the opportunity to directly observe these factors. Our subjective assessments of these factors are based on the observed but unmodeled factors that we discuss in this post: the quality of the organization’s communication and ongoing monitoring, and the likelihood of detecting future problems.

Principle 3: Assess charities’ funding gaps at the margin, i.e., where they would spend additional funding, where possible. We try to understand how charities’ funding would be spent among different programs or locations. Our cost-effectiveness estimates for charities’ projects often vary substantially (depending, for example, on the underlying disease burden in a particular country the charity plans to work in). Where possible, we compare our best guess of how funding would be used on the margin, rather than on average. As part of assessing charities’ marginal cost-effectiveness, we intend to capture whether there are diminishing returns to their receiving additional funding.

Principle 4: Default towards not imposing restrictions on charity spending. While we rely on our expectation of how charities would prioritize funding gaps to estimate marginal cost-effectiveness, we do not plan to impose any restrictions on how the funding is actually used in practice. (There is one exception to this: in cases where a top charity implements multiple global health and development programs and our recommendation is restricted to one of those programs, we do restrict funding to the priority program we recommend, such as deworming or vitamin A supplementation.) We believe our top charities are often better placed to make decisions about which projects to fund than we are, and we want to ensure maximum flexibility for them to do so.

Principle 5: Fund on a three-year horizon, unless we are particularly uncertain whether we will want to continue recommending a program in the future. Our top charities have communicated to us that there are often substantial benefits to knowing that funding for a program is secure for the future. As a general rule, we aim to provide funding for three years for each program we choose to fund. The exception is when we are more uncertain whether we would want to renew funding for a third year (e.g. because our estimated cost-effectiveness of a program is close to the marginal program we decided not to fund).

Principle 6: Ensure charities are incentivized to engage with our process. We recognize that our charity review process requires deep engagement from senior members of charities’ staff. We want to ensure that charities are incentivized to keep engaging with our process. To this end, since 2016, we recommended that Good Ventures provide a minimum “incentive grant” to top charities ($2.5 million) and standout charities ($100,000).

We hope that providing significant incentive grants increases the chances that charities are motivated to compete for a GiveWell recommendation. We fear that without ensuring that every top charity or standout receives a substantial amount of funding, some charities might be deterred from applying for a GiveWell recommendation or from making changes to their programs to potentially become top charities.

Our process for determining our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

In line with the principles above, we used the following process to arrive at our recommended allocation for Good Ventures:

1. We recommended that Good Ventures provide each charity with an incentive grant ($2.5 million per top charity and $100,000 per standout charity).
2. We identified the most cost-effective gap we were unable to entirely fill with the $64.0 million we recommended to Good Ventures (noting again that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended): Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Our cost-effectiveness analysis suggests this gap is about 8.8x as cost-effective as cash transfers, and that Malaria Consortium could absorb about $70 million in additional funding to support this work. We have a high opinion of Malaria Consortium as an organization, and this qualitative assessment supports our consideration of this gap as highly cost-effective to fill.

   Our best guess is there are limited diminishing marginal returns over the interval of this funding gap.

3. Remaining funding gaps were compared to the Malaria Consortium funding gap in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad based on (i) their estimated cost-effectiveness, (ii) our subjective assessment of the organization’s quality, and (iii) particular arguments relevant to that funding gap but not captured elsewhere in our analysis (e.g., whether our decision to not fund a particular gap would be disproportionately disruptive to an organization’s activities).

This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding needs gaps by charity. We relied on this list of funding needs in determining our recommendation to Good Ventures, as well as in making our assessment of how much additional funding our top charities can absorb, after taking into account our recommendation to Good Ventures.

In brief, we concluded that some charities’ funding gaps compared favorably to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention gap, which led us to recommend a total of ~$6-10 million in funding to each of Deworm the World Initiative, Sightsavers’ deworming program, and Helen Keller International’s vitamin A supplementation program. We did not see compelling reasons to recommend funding to the other top charities ahead of Malaria Consortium’s funding gap, so we only recommended that those charities receive the $2.5 million incentive grant.

We explain our recommended allocation to Good Ventures for each of our top charities in more detail on this page.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 2. ↑ “We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. 3. ↑ We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Our recommendation to Good Ventures appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Today, we announce our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We expect to direct over $100 million to the eight charities on our list as a result of our recommendation.

Good Ventures, a large foundation with which we work closely, is the largest single funder of our top charities. We make recommendations to Good Ventures each year for how much funding to provide to our top charities and how to allocate that funding among them. As this funding is significant, we think it’s important for other donors to take into account the recommendation we make to Good Ventures.

This blog post explains in detail how we decide what to recommend to Good Ventures and why; we want to be transparent about the research that leads us to our recommendations to Good Ventures. If you’re interested in a bottom-line recommendation for where to donate this year, please view our post with recommendations for non-Good Ventures donors.

Note that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

Summary

In this post, we discuss:

• How we decided how much funding to recommend Good Ventures provide to our top charities.
• Our recommendation for how Good Ventures should allocate that funding among our top charities, and how we arrived at that allocation:
  • Principles we followed
  • Our process

How we decided how much funding to recommend to Good Ventures

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our top charities and standout charities. The amount Good Ventures gives to our top charities is based in part on how the Open Philanthropy Project plans to allocate funding across time and across cause areas. (Read more about our relationships with Good Ventures and the Open Philanthropy Project here.)

The Open Philanthropy Project currently plans to allocate around 10% of its total available capital to “straightforward charity,” which it currently allocates to global health and development causes based on GiveWell’s recommendations. This 10% allocation includes two “buckets”—a fixed percentage of total giving each year of 5% and another “flexible” bucket of 5%, which can be spent down quickly (over a few years) or slowly (over many years). GiveWell’s recommendation that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million this year puts the flexible bucket on track to be spent down within the next 14 years.

We’re recommending $64.0 million this year to balance two considerations:

• As the world gets richer, giving opportunities in global health and development generally seem likely to get worse over time. This implies that giving now has a larger impact.
• In the coming years, GiveWell may find opportunities that are considerably more cost-effective than our current recommendations (e.g., among policy advocacy organizations). This would make spending in future years have a larger impact.

Our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

The table below summarizes how much funding we recommend Good Ventures grant to each of our top charities, along with our explicit cost-effectiveness estimate for each organization and organizational factors we don’t model explicitly that affect our assessment of impact.

As always, cost-effectiveness figures should be interpreted with caution.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.1“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_8881_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_8881_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Charity Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers)2“We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_8881_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_8881_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Organizational factors we don’t model explicitly3We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_8881_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_8881_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Recommended allocation Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Very strong $26.6 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) 14.6 Very strong $10.4 million Sightsavers (deworming program) 12.0 Moderate $9.7 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) 7.0 Strong $6.5 million Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Moderate $2.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Relatively weak $2.5 million The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Relatively weak $2.5 million GiveDirectly 1 Very strong $2.5 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined) Sum $64.0 million

The underlying objective of GiveWell’s allocation is to direct as much money as possible to the most cost-effective giving opportunities over the long run. (We aim to optimize cost-effectiveness, as defined broadly—we recognize the limitations of our cost-effectiveness model and consider additional factors in our assessment.) We relied on modeled cost-effectiveness figures as well as the organizational factors described above to inform our recommendations.

To meet this objective, our allocation this year was driven by the principles described below.

Principles we followed in arriving at this allocation

Principle 1: Put significant weight on our cost-effectiveness estimates. Our cost-effectiveness estimates incorporate a substantial amount of information relevant to our decisionmaking. While we recognize the high levels of uncertainty around our cost-effectiveness estimates, they are the single largest factor we take into consideration. More on how we use cost-effectiveness to inform our decisions here.

Principle 2: Consider additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. While our cost-effectiveness estimates are the best tool we know of to estimate the amount of good a charity accomplishes, we believe it’s infeasible to try to incorporate all relevant considerations into a single quantitative estimate. Subjective assessments that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness calculations but affect how much impact a charity has include:

• A charity’s ability to make good decisions on how to prioritize. Our top charities often take factors that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness estimates into account when deciding how to spend their limited budgets. We use our subjective assessment of how well charities answer our questions about their activities as a proxy for how well they make these decisions.
• Upside. Our top charities often perform activities that go beyond the scope of their direct work, such as conducting and sharing research that influences others, or raising funds for their programs from funders that would otherwise give to less cost-effective programs.

For the most part, we do not have the opportunity to directly observe these factors. Our subjective assessments of these factors are based on the observed but unmodeled factors that we discuss in this post: the quality of the organization’s communication and ongoing monitoring, and the likelihood of detecting future problems.

Principle 3: Assess charities’ funding gaps at the margin, i.e., where they would spend additional funding, where possible. We try to understand how charities’ funding would be spent among different programs or locations. Our cost-effectiveness estimates for charities’ projects often vary substantially (depending, for example, on the underlying disease burden in a particular country the charity plans to work in). Where possible, we compare our best guess of how funding would be used on the margin, rather than on average. As part of assessing charities’ marginal cost-effectiveness, we intend to capture whether there are diminishing returns to their receiving additional funding.

Principle 4: Default towards not imposing restrictions on charity spending. While we rely on our expectation of how charities would prioritize funding gaps to estimate marginal cost-effectiveness, we do not plan to impose any restrictions on how the funding is actually used in practice. (There is one exception to this: in cases where a top charity implements multiple global health and development programs and our recommendation is restricted to one of those programs, we do restrict funding to the priority program we recommend, such as deworming or vitamin A supplementation.) We believe our top charities are often better placed to make decisions about which projects to fund than we are, and we want to ensure maximum flexibility for them to do so.

Principle 5: Fund on a three-year horizon, unless we are particularly uncertain whether we will want to continue recommending a program in the future. Our top charities have communicated to us that there are often substantial benefits to knowing that funding for a program is secure for the future. As a general rule, we aim to provide funding for three years for each program we choose to fund. The exception is when we are more uncertain whether we would want to renew funding for a third year (e.g. because our estimated cost-effectiveness of a program is close to the marginal program we decided not to fund).

Principle 6: Ensure charities are incentivized to engage with our process. We recognize that our charity review process requires deep engagement from senior members of charities’ staff. We want to ensure that charities are incentivized to keep engaging with our process. To this end, since 2016, we recommended that Good Ventures provide a minimum “incentive grant” to top charities ($2.5 million) and standout charities ($100,000).

We hope that providing significant incentive grants increases the chances that charities are motivated to compete for a GiveWell recommendation. We fear that without ensuring that every top charity or standout receives a substantial amount of funding, some charities might be deterred from applying for a GiveWell recommendation or from making changes to their programs to potentially become top charities.

Our process for determining our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

In line with the principles above, we used the following process to arrive at our recommended allocation for Good Ventures:

1. We recommended that Good Ventures provide each charity with an incentive grant ($2.5 million per top charity and $100,000 per standout charity).
2. We identified the most cost-effective gap we were unable to entirely fill with the $64.0 million we recommended to Good Ventures (noting again that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended): Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Our cost-effectiveness analysis suggests this gap is about 8.8x as cost-effective as cash transfers, and that Malaria Consortium could absorb about $70 million in additional funding to support this work. We have a high opinion of Malaria Consortium as an organization, and this qualitative assessment supports our consideration of this gap as highly cost-effective to fill.

   Our best guess is there are limited diminishing marginal returns over the interval of this funding gap.

3. Remaining funding gaps were compared to the Malaria Consortium funding gap in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad based on (i) their estimated cost-effectiveness, (ii) our subjective assessment of the organization’s quality, and (iii) particular arguments relevant to that funding gap but not captured elsewhere in our analysis (e.g., whether our decision to not fund a particular gap would be disproportionately disruptive to an organization’s activities).

This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding needs gaps by charity. We relied on this list of funding needs in determining our recommendation to Good Ventures, as well as in making our assessment of how much additional funding our top charities can absorb, after taking into account our recommendation to Good Ventures.

In brief, we concluded that some charities’ funding gaps compared favorably to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention gap, which led us to recommend a total of ~$6-10 million in funding to each of Deworm the World Initiative, Sightsavers’ deworming program, and Helen Keller International’s vitamin A supplementation program. We did not see compelling reasons to recommend funding to the other top charities ahead of Malaria Consortium’s funding gap, so we only recommended that those charities receive the $2.5 million incentive grant.

We explain our recommended allocation to Good Ventures for each of our top charities in more detail on this page.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 2. ↑ “We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. 3. ↑ We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

The post Our recommendation to Good Ventures appeared first on The GiveWell Blog.

Today, we announce our list of top charities for the 2018 giving season. We expect to direct over $100 million to the eight charities on our list as a result of our recommendation.

Good Ventures, a large foundation with which we work closely, is the largest single funder of our top charities. We make recommendations to Good Ventures each year for how much funding to provide to our top charities and how to allocate that funding among them. As this funding is significant, we think it’s important for other donors to take into account the recommendation we make to Good Ventures.

This blog post explains in detail how we decide what to recommend to Good Ventures and why; we want to be transparent about the research that leads us to our recommendations to Good Ventures. If you’re interested in a bottom-line recommendation for where to donate this year, please view our post with recommendations for non-Good Ventures donors.

Note that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended. We think it’s unlikely that any differences would have major implications for our bottom-line recommendations for other donors.

Summary

In this post, we discuss:

• How we decided how much funding to recommend Good Ventures provide to our top charities.
• Our recommendation for how Good Ventures should allocate that funding among our top charities, and how we arrived at that allocation:
  • Principles we followed
  • Our process

How we decided how much funding to recommend to Good Ventures

This year, GiveWell recommended that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million to our top charities and standout charities. The amount Good Ventures gives to our top charities is based in part on how the Open Philanthropy Project plans to allocate funding across time and across cause areas. (Read more about our relationships with Good Ventures and the Open Philanthropy Project here.)

The Open Philanthropy Project currently plans to allocate around 10% of its total available capital to “straightforward charity,” which it currently allocates to global health and development causes based on GiveWell’s recommendations. This 10% allocation includes two “buckets”—a fixed percentage of total giving each year of 5% and another “flexible” bucket of 5%, which can be spent down quickly (over a few years) or slowly (over many years). GiveWell’s recommendation that Good Ventures grant $64.0 million this year puts the flexible bucket on track to be spent down within the next 14 years.

We’re recommending $64.0 million this year to balance two considerations:

• As the world gets richer, giving opportunities in global health and development generally seem likely to get worse over time. This implies that giving now has a larger impact.
• In the coming years, GiveWell may find opportunities that are considerably more cost-effective than our current recommendations (e.g., among policy advocacy organizations). This would make spending in future years have a larger impact.

Our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

The table below summarizes how much funding we recommend Good Ventures grant to each of our top charities, along with our explicit cost-effectiveness estimate for each organization and organizational factors we don’t model explicitly that affect our assessment of impact.

As always, cost-effectiveness figures should be interpreted with caution.

Note: the cost-effectiveness estimates we present in this post differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis for a number of reasons.1“The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1612_1").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1612_1", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] });

Charity Modeled cost-effectiveness (relative to cash transfers)2“We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1612_2").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1612_2", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Organizational factors we don’t model explicitly3We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. jQuery("#footnote_plugin_tooltip_1612_3").tooltip({ tip: "#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_1612_3", tipClass: "footnote_tooltip", effect: "fade", fadeOutSpeed: 100, predelay: 400, position: "top right", relative: true, offset: [10, 10] }); Recommended allocation Malaria Consortium (SMC program) 8.8 Very strong $26.6 million Evidence Action (Deworm the World Initiative) 14.6 Very strong $10.4 million Sightsavers (deworming program) 12.0 Moderate $9.7 million Helen Keller International (VAS program) 7.0 Strong $6.5 million Against Malaria Foundation 7.3 Moderate $2.5 million Schistosomiasis Control Initiative 8.3 Relatively weak $2.5 million The END Fund (deworming program) 5.4 Relatively weak $2.5 million GiveDirectly 1 Very strong $2.5 million Standout charities $800,000 (combined) Sum $64.0 million

The underlying objective of GiveWell’s allocation is to direct as much money as possible to the most cost-effective giving opportunities over the long run. (We aim to optimize cost-effectiveness, as defined broadly—we recognize the limitations of our cost-effectiveness model and consider additional factors in our assessment.) We relied on modeled cost-effectiveness figures as well as the organizational factors described above to inform our recommendations.

To meet this objective, our allocation this year was driven by the principles described below.

Principles we followed in arriving at this allocation

Principle 1: Put significant weight on our cost-effectiveness estimates. Our cost-effectiveness estimates incorporate a substantial amount of information relevant to our decisionmaking. While we recognize the high levels of uncertainty around our cost-effectiveness estimates, they are the single largest factor we take into consideration. More on how we use cost-effectiveness to inform our decisions here.

Principle 2: Consider additional information about an organization that we have not explicitly modeled. While our cost-effectiveness estimates are the best tool we know of to estimate the amount of good a charity accomplishes, we believe it’s infeasible to try to incorporate all relevant considerations into a single quantitative estimate. Subjective assessments that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness calculations but affect how much impact a charity has include:

• A charity’s ability to make good decisions on how to prioritize. Our top charities often take factors that aren’t included in our cost-effectiveness estimates into account when deciding how to spend their limited budgets. We use our subjective assessment of how well charities answer our questions about their activities as a proxy for how well they make these decisions.
• Upside. Our top charities often perform activities that go beyond the scope of their direct work, such as conducting and sharing research that influences others, or raising funds for their programs from funders that would otherwise give to less cost-effective programs.

For the most part, we do not have the opportunity to directly observe these factors. Our subjective assessments of these factors are based on the observed but unmodeled factors that we discuss in this post: the quality of the organization’s communication and ongoing monitoring, and the likelihood of detecting future problems.

Principle 3: Assess charities’ funding gaps at the margin, i.e., where they would spend additional funding, where possible. We try to understand how charities’ funding would be spent among different programs or locations. Our cost-effectiveness estimates for charities’ projects often vary substantially (depending, for example, on the underlying disease burden in a particular country the charity plans to work in). Where possible, we compare our best guess of how funding would be used on the margin, rather than on average. As part of assessing charities’ marginal cost-effectiveness, we intend to capture whether there are diminishing returns to their receiving additional funding.

Principle 4: Default towards not imposing restrictions on charity spending. While we rely on our expectation of how charities would prioritize funding gaps to estimate marginal cost-effectiveness, we do not plan to impose any restrictions on how the funding is actually used in practice. (There is one exception to this: in cases where a top charity implements multiple global health and development programs and our recommendation is restricted to one of those programs, we do restrict funding to the priority program we recommend, such as deworming or vitamin A supplementation.) We believe our top charities are often better placed to make decisions about which projects to fund than we are, and we want to ensure maximum flexibility for them to do so.

Principle 5: Fund on a three-year horizon, unless we are particularly uncertain whether we will want to continue recommending a program in the future. Our top charities have communicated to us that there are often substantial benefits to knowing that funding for a program is secure for the future. As a general rule, we aim to provide funding for three years for each program we choose to fund. The exception is when we are more uncertain whether we would want to renew funding for a third year (e.g. because our estimated cost-effectiveness of a program is close to the marginal program we decided not to fund).

Principle 6: Ensure charities are incentivized to engage with our process. We recognize that our charity review process requires deep engagement from senior members of charities’ staff. We want to ensure that charities are incentivized to keep engaging with our process. To this end, since 2016, we recommended that Good Ventures provide a minimum “incentive grant” to top charities ($2.5 million) and standout charities ($100,000).

We hope that providing significant incentive grants increases the chances that charities are motivated to compete for a GiveWell recommendation. We fear that without ensuring that every top charity or standout receives a substantial amount of funding, some charities might be deterred from applying for a GiveWell recommendation or from making changes to their programs to potentially become top charities.

Our process for determining our recommended allocation for Good Ventures

In line with the principles above, we used the following process to arrive at our recommended allocation for Good Ventures:

1. We recommended that Good Ventures provide each charity with an incentive grant ($2.5 million per top charity and $100,000 per standout charity).
2. We identified the most cost-effective gap we were unable to entirely fill with the $64.0 million we recommended to Good Ventures (noting again that Good Ventures has not finalized its plans for the year and may give differently from what we’ve recommended): Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention program in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Our cost-effectiveness analysis suggests this gap is about 8.8x as cost-effective as cash transfers, and that Malaria Consortium could absorb about $70 million in additional funding to support this work. We have a high opinion of Malaria Consortium as an organization, and this qualitative assessment supports our consideration of this gap as highly cost-effective to fill.

   Our best guess is there are limited diminishing marginal returns over the interval of this funding gap.

3. Remaining funding gaps were compared to the Malaria Consortium funding gap in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Chad based on (i) their estimated cost-effectiveness, (ii) our subjective assessment of the organization’s quality, and (iii) particular arguments relevant to that funding gap but not captured elsewhere in our analysis (e.g., whether our decision to not fund a particular gap would be disproportionately disruptive to an organization’s activities).

This spreadsheet lists all of our top charities’ funding needs; rows 70-79 show total funding needs gaps by charity. We relied on this list of funding needs in determining our recommendation to Good Ventures, as well as in making our assessment of how much additional funding our top charities can absorb, after taking into account our recommendation to Good Ventures.

In brief, we concluded that some charities’ funding gaps compared favorably to Malaria Consortium’s seasonal malaria chemoprevention gap, which led us to recommend a total of ~$6-10 million in funding to each of Deworm the World Initiative, Sightsavers’ deworming program, and Helen Keller International’s vitamin A supplementation program. We did not see compelling reasons to recommend funding to the other top charities ahead of Malaria Consortium’s funding gap, so we only recommended that those charities receive the $2.5 million incentive grant.

We explain our recommended allocation to Good Ventures for each of our top charities in more detail on this page.

Questions?

We’re happy to answer questions in the comments below. Please also feel free to reach out directly with any questions.

—

This post was written by Andrew Martin, Catherine Hollander, Elie Hassenfeld, James Snowden, and Josh Rosenberg.

Notes   [ + ]

1. ↑ “The cost-effectiveness estimates in this sheet, which we used to inform our recommended allocation differ from those in our published cost-effectiveness analysis because (1) we apply a number of adjustments to incorporate additional information (2) we apply different weightings to each program (which affects the weighted average of cost-effectiveness).” Source: See Giving Season 2018 – Allocation (public), “Cost-effectiveness results” tab, row 17. Additional details at the link. 2. ↑ “We typically won’t move forward with a charity in our process if it appears that it won’t meet the threshold of at least 2-3x as cost-effective as cash transfers. We think cash transfers are a reasonable baseline to use due to the intuitive argument that if you’re going to help someone with Program X, Program X should be more cost-effective than just giving someone cash to buy that which they need most.” June 1, 2017, GiveWell blog, How GiveWell uses cost-effectiveness analyses. The estimates presented here differ from the estimates presented in our recommendation to donors because they estimate weighted average cost-effectiveness over the whole funding gap, rather than on the margin. 3. ↑ We take into account an organization’s strength of communication with us and the comprehensiveness of its program monitoring. We factor this into our broad assessment of the organization’s cost-effectiveness. Read more: November 26, 2018, GiveWell blog, Our updated top charities for giving season 2018. function footnote_expand_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").show(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("-"); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container() { jQuery("#footnote_references_container").hide(); jQuery("#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button").text("+"); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container() { if (jQuery("#footnote_references_container").is(":hidden")) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container(); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery("#" + p_str_TargetID); if(l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight/2 }, 1000); } }

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