[1] From New Incentives' homepage: "Nigeria is home to just 3% of the world’s population, yet it accounts for 13% of the world’s mortality of children under five, the second highest rate in the world. Low immunization rates are a significant contributor to its high under-five mortality rate (120 deaths per 1,000 live births)—an estimated 40% of deaths of children under five are from vaccine-preventable diseases. Northern Nigeria, where our program operates, is the region with the lowest vaccination coverage in Nigeria." Our impression is that New Incentives chooses to operate in northern Nigeria largely because of low vaccination rates and relatively high childhood mortality.
[2] We use unconditional cash transfers as a benchmark for comparing opportunities, such that a program is estimated to be “12x cash” if we believe it’s 12 times more impactful per dollar than giving money directly to people living in poverty.
[3] This map shows deaths across all age groups, not only children under the age of five. It shows variation by country but not within countries. The data come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease estimates for 2019, and the map can be found here.
[4] See this 2018 blog post for a discussion of how we think about leverage and fungibility.
[5] The Global Fund places a cap of 10% for a given disease, or 7.5% of the total Global Fund allocation across diseases; see this document (annex 2, page 3 of 12).
There were roughly 190,000 deaths from malaria in Nigeria in 2019, compared to roughly 640,000 worldwide, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease estimates (source). 190,000 / 640,000 = 30%; the numbers change slightly depending on the year and the data source.
[6] For context, in 2022, 91% of our funds directed were allocated by GiveWell to specific funding opportunities rather than restricted by donors to a particular organization.
Qualitative factors might lead us not to make a grant even if the estimated cost-effectiveness for a specific funding opportunity is above 10x, or vice versa.
[7] Donations to the Top Charities Fund are granted on a rolling basis to support cost-effective funding opportunities at our top charities. Donations to the All Grants Fund are granted on a rolling basis to the most impactful grant opportunities we've identified, regardless of program or location, including funding opportunities more uncertain or riskier than our top charities.