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Internal forecasts

Published: July 2017

We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking); we will sometimes make these public on relevant pages. The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. We are still deciding how frequently and how thoroughly we intend to revisit these forecasts.