Published: November 2012

Summary

GiveDirectly (www.givedirectly.org) transfers cash to households in the developing world via the M-PESA mobile phone-based payment service. It targets extremely low-income households and aims to deliver at least 90 cents directly to recipients for every $1.00 in total expenses. (More)

GiveDirectly is a recommended organization because of:

• Its focus on cash transfers: delivering 90% of all expenses directly to extremely low-income people in the developing world. We feel that this intervention faces an unusually low burden of proof, though donors' intuitive reactions to it may vary widely. The evidence that such transfers increase short-term consumption, especially of food, is very strong, and there is more limited evidence that such transfers may be invested at very high rates of return (e.g. ~20% annually). (More)
• Its documented success, to date, in reaching its 90% target, and what we perceive as a strong (and evolving) process for ensuring that cash is well-targeted and efficiently delivered. (More)
• Its strong transparency and commitment to self-evaluation. Among other things, GiveDirectly has two high-quality studies of its impact ongoing, and has taken the unusual step of making the details of these studies public before data is collected. (More)
• Room for more funding - we believe that GiveDirectly can use substantial additional funding productively, both for its core work of delivering cash and for investigative work on refining its (new and unusual) approach. (More)

Our full review, below, discusses our full assessment of GiveDirectly, including what we see as its strengths and weaknesses as well as issues we have yet to resolve.

Our investigation process

To date, our investigation process has consisted of

• Conversations with GiveDirectly co-founders and board members Paul Niehaus (also serving as CEO), Rohit Wanchoo (also serving as CFO), Michael Faye (Chairman of the Board), and Jeremy Shapiro as well as GiveDirectly COO Piali Mukhopadhyay.
• Reviewing documents GiveDirectly sent in response to our queries.
• In November 2012, we visited GiveDirectly's operations in Kenya where we met with beneficiaries of its work and spoke with its local field staff (including its field monitor and one of 8 staff members responsible for enrolling new recipients).

Older content on GiveDirectly:

• April 2012 review of GiveDirectly
• July 2011 blog post on GiveDirectly

What do they do?

GiveDirectly transfers cash to poor households in the developing world via the M-PESA mobile phone-based payment service. It is currently active in Kenya,1 with plans to expand into an additional country during 2013.2

Its current model involves grants of $1,000 (USD) over 9 months,3 after which recipients become ineligible,4 though it has stated that it is considering experimenting with other grant size/duration approaches (more). GiveDirectly aims to help the poorest households, targeting those that are in "acute poverty."5 Recipient households are currently identified by (a) selecting poor villages based on factors such as number of boreholes, proximity to schools, roads, etc.; (b) determining eligibility based on the materials that houses are made of (more). It aims to deliver at least 90 cents directly to recipients of every $1.00 in total expenses.6

Below, we

• Discuss the structure of GiveDirectly's transfers.
• Summarize GiveDirectly's transfers and other expenses to date.
• Discuss GiveDirectly's process for identifying recipient households and delivering cash transfers.

Grant structure

GiveDirectly's current model involves grants of $1,000 (USD) over 9 months,7 after which recipients become ineligible.8 This is a very different approach from the approach we've seen in government cash transfer programs. One way of putting the difference (which has been reflected in GiveDirectly's communications with us) is that government programs aim for "income transfers" (small supplements to income over many years) whereas GiveDirectly aims for "wealth transfers" (large, one-off transfers that hopefully give people more flexibility to make large purchases and investments).

Note that household size varies substantially in the data we've reviewed (from the first round of Siaya transfers): while the mean household size is ~4.7 and the median size is 4, 16% of households have 1 or 2 people, ~20% have 6 or more, and the maximum household size is 16.9 We estimate that the average family receives $288 per capita from GiveDirectly, which is 121% of baseline annual consumption per capita.10

Transfers and other expenses to date

GiveDirectly is a relatively young organization. It was founded in 2008 when its founders were graduate students in economic development; Paul Niehaus, GiveDirectly's CEO and co-founder, is now an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego and its other co-founders and board members work in the private sector.11 GiveDirectly delivered its first cash transfers in 2011 (see table below). It has had one full-time staff member working since January 2011.12

Thus far, it has worked on 4 sets of transfers in two districts within Western Kenya: Rarieda and Siaya.

• Rarieda transfers: the initial transfers GiveDirectly delivered were given to the treatment groups of a randomized controlled trial of the effects of unconditional cash transfers.
• Siaya I transfers: one set of transfers was initiated in June 2012.
• Siaya II transfers: another set of transfers initiated in November 2012.
• Nike transfers: additional transfers to young women in Siaya district as part of a project funded by the Nike Foundation. This set of transfers also includes a randomized controlled trial evaluation.

Details of each of these transfers is provided in this table:13

In the fiscal year 9/1/11-8/31/12, GiveDirectly reports paying out $333,994 in cash transfers (not including transfer expenses and the expenses of the below process). Direct cash transfers have accounted for ~89.7% of GiveDirectly's total expenses in that fiscal year. GiveDirectly projects a final ratio of ~92% for its four ongoing projects.14 Below we break down GiveDirectly's full organizational costs incurred to deliver these transfers:15

GiveDirectly's process

GiveDirectly's current process, which it is following in November 2012 as it enrolls households in Siaya, is laid out in the document "Operational Process Overview" (GiveDirectly 2012). We describe this process below; we note differences between its current process and past processes and provide details in footnotes.

The steps are as follows:

1. Selection of a region. GiveDirectly told us that it initially chose to work in Western Kenya based on poverty statistics.16 We have not yet reviewed this data.
2. Selection of counties and villages. GiveDirectly states that its staff (COO level17) uses data on poverty, population density, security, and presence of poverty-focused NGOs (with the goal of avoiding overlapping with these) to select counties, then uses a predictive model of income to select villages.18 GiveDirectly has shared the full details of its village selection process, including data for each village and the method for weighting the different factors used to select villages;19 we have not done a similar examination of its county selection process. For details on how GiveDirectly has targeted villages historically, see this footnote.20
3. Selection of households. After selecting a village and meeting with local officials (a function performed by GiveDirectly's COO),21 GiveDirectly retains staff to create a census of all households in the village (this step was different in past transfer rounds22), noting which are eligible for transfers23 (the criterion for eligibility at this stage is that the home is made of mud and thatch)24 and collecting other data including GPS coordinates. We have not reviewed census data. (This process was different in the project funded by the Nike Foundation because the proscribed target population of that study is young women.25)
4. Enrollment and eligibility checks. GiveDirectly retains a separate set of staff to visit households marked as eligible and give them a SIM card (if they do not already have an M-PESA account), which is used to transfer funds through the M-PESA system,26 and collect other data including GPS coordinates which can be checked against the initial data set (with discrepancies being flagged for audit).27 This process was different in past transfer rounds.28

   We have reviewed (and made public) a set of data collected on these households, with deletions to preserve anonymity.29 GiveDirectly has told us that in the above enrollment and eligibility checks and the further checks and audits described below, it errs on the side of excluding rather than including a recipient if there is reason to believe that the potential recipient does not meet GiveDirectly's eligibility criteria.30

5. Further checks and audits. GiveDirectly performs a series of checks and audits to ensure eligibility:
   1. GiveDirectly staff "check that the data collected in enrollment and the village census match, that GPS coordinates show an eligible house, that we have a valid photograph showing recipients in front of an eligible house, etc."31 Discrepancies are flagged for audit.32 We have reviewed (and made public) a set of data from these checks, with deletions to preserve anonymity.33 Note that in enrollment rounds completed before November 2012, GiveDirectly did not use all of these steps as "hard checks." Potential recipients could remain eligible even if they failed one of these steps.34
   2. A village meeting is held (different from past rounds35) "to answer questions anyone may have about the program, clarify that we aren’t affiliated with a political party, etc." 36
   3. GiveDirectly retains a third set of staff to conduct "back-checks" following the meeting, re-verifying eligibility and asking whether households were asked to pay a bribe to enroll.37 Discrepancies are flagged for follow-up phone calls or audits.38 We have reviewed (and made public) a set of data from these checks, with deletions to preserve anonymity.39 GiveDirectly aims to identify all households and does not disqualify a household merely because a potential recipient is not home.40
   4. GiveDirectly's COO "audits 15% of recipients including any who were flagged in any of the checks and including some of the work done by each field worker."41 We have reviewed (and made public) a set of data from these checks, with deletions to preserve anonymity.42
   5. GiveDirectly staff "call recipients to check that they know what they’re doing and ask if they had any problems / had to pay anyone to enroll."43 This includes verifying that their SIM card number matches the number they provided during enrollment.44 Staff make a first call soon after GiveDirectly transfers an initial, small installment of funds (approximately 5% of the total transfer) to recipients.45 This is different from past transfer processes.46 GiveDirectly staff make an additional call to recipients 1-2 weeks after the transfer is sent to confirm that it was received, ask how recipients spent their funds, and ask again whether they experienced any problems.47 We have reviewed two sets of aggregated data from these calls.48

Key differences in some past distributions were (a) the lack of a "census" (instead, GiveDirectly asked village officials to take them to eligible households, and thus conducted two in-person checks of each house rather than three); (b) the lack of a village meeting.

In the past, GiveDirectly has used a somewhat informal "preponderance of evidence" approach to determining eligibility: while it has conducted all the checks above, it has been open to declaring people eligible despite, e.g., the lack of a photo or GPS match. It has expressed an interest in more rigid adherence to formal criteria in the future.49 We discuss the details of how the "preponderance of evidence approach" was implemented below.

Does it work?

This section discusses the following questions:

• Generally speaking, are unconditional cash transfers a promising approach to helping people? We believe that this approach faces an unusually low burden of proof, and that the available evidence is consistent with the idea that unconditional cash transfers help people.
• Does GiveDirectly have a reasonable and effective process for selecting recipients and getting cash to them? We believe GiveDirectly's process is a reasonable way to identify low-income people, and it appears that the process has been relatively effective so far.
• Are the people meeting GiveDirectly's criteria low-income? The evidence we have suggests that they are.
• Do the cash transfers cause problems and complications that offset their positive impact? GiveDirectly has taken some measures to address this question, and we believe that the evidence so far suggests that - while the cash transfers do raise some problems - these problems are relatively minor in the scheme of things. This is an area where we would particularly like to see more information in the future.
• Are the size and structure of the cash transfers well-thought-through and appropriate? We find GiveDirectly's approach to be defensible, but hope to see more experimentation with different approaches in the future.

Generally speaking, are unconditional cash transfers a promising approach to helping people?

We discuss this question more extensively at our report on cash transfers. In brief:

• Cash transfers are amongst the best-studied development interventions, though questions remain. These studies generally show substantial increases in short-term consumption, especially food, and little evidence of negative impacts (e.g. increases in alcohol or tobacco consumption).
• There is also some evidence that recipients are able to invest cash transfers at high rates of return (e.g. ~20% per year), leading to long-term increases in consumption.
• We feel that this intervention faces an unusually low burden of proof, though donors' intuitive reactions to it may vary widely.

Does GiveDirectly have a reasonable and effective process for selecting recipients and getting cash to them?

GiveDirectly's process is described above. We find it to be generally reasonable, in that

• We would guess that most people living in mud and thatch homes are low-income, particularly in Kenyan villages that available data has identified as high-poverty. (Our site visit in late 2012 was consistent with this.50)
• The process involves multiple visits by different staff to each recipient home, as well as spot-checks and remote checks by higher-level staff, in order to confirm that recipients meet criteria. (The idea being that if someone tries to temporarily occupy a mud-and-thatch home in order to be enrolled, they are unlikely to be sure of being present for future re-checks.)
• The process also involves some procedures for catching other issues, in particular the phone surveys administered after each installment of the transfer.

We have examined data collected by GiveDirectly from its enrollment process, back-checks, remote checks and audits in Siaya, Kenya.51 We have also examined a summary of the results of its post-cash-transfer phone surveys.52

The enrollment and back-check file lists 226 individuals who were initially enrolled in the program. 27 of these were ultimately deemed ineligible and transfers were made to 199 of them.

GiveDirectly's CEO told us that ineligibility was determined by a "preponderance of the evidence."53 We have not seen documentation of GiveDirectly's process in reaching these conclusions. GiveDirectly told us that in most cases where a household was deemed ineligible, GiveDirectly came to believe during its back-check based on information from other villagers that the ineligible individuals either did not live in the village GiveDirectly was targeting or lived in metal-roof houses and had tried to game the system by pretending to live in thatch-roof houses.54 (GiveDirectly believes many of these ineligible households were introduced because GiveDirectly allowed the Village Elder to lead staffers to households, enabling the Village Elder to help his friends or family. For this reason, GiveDirectly has changed its process so as not to rely on the Village Elder as a guide.55) The file also shows that the 199 eligible households were checked and met GiveDirectly's eligibility criteria.56

Are the people meeting GiveDirectly's criteria low-income?

GiveDirectly has collected data on poverty levels of the people receiving cash transfers as part of its studies (these people were selected using the process detailed above). GiveDirectly has shared the full survey form used to interview participants,57 as well as its own summary of the data collected so far, as of March 2012:58

GiveDirectly also provided charts that show a clear difference in the consumption, expenditures, and assets of households in mud and thatch homes compared to those in cement homes, but fairly small differences between those living in mud and thatch homes and those living in mud and iron roof homes.59

GiveDirectly shared mid-line results from the RCT that Innovations for Poverty Action is conducting for its transfers in Rarieda.60 While it shared all the results with us, the study’s Principal Investigators asked that we not publish the document at this time.  GiveDirectly also notes that these results are preliminary as (a) recipients had only received $200 of the transfer at the time they were surveyed and may spend the first dollars they receive differently from later dollars; (b) at the mid-line, researchers only surveyed recipients on a subset of the variables they thought would ultimately be most important; and (c) respondents were surveyed less than a year after beginning to receive transfers so these results may not fully reflect seasonal variations due to the agricultural cycle, school fees, and so forth.61 With these caveats in mind, the mid-line results (for those in the control group who met the program's eligibility criteria but were not selected to receive transfers) show adults (26%) and children (39%) reporting that they have gone whole days without meals in the past month. Only 69% of households report eating until content each day.62 Other results related to food consumption are measured as well which are, in our view, consistent with the notion that recipients are extremely poor. We list all estimated treatment effects in this footnote.63

Anecdotal evidence from GiveWell's site visit to Kenya

In November 2012, GiveWell staff visited Kenya to view GiveDirectly's program in the field. See our notes and photographs from the site visit. We visited 5 locations (3 in Siaya and 2 in Rarieda) where GiveDirectly had transferred funds or was in the process of enrolling recipients to receive funds. We visited approximately 15 households across the 5 locations (including 2 non-recipient households that had metal roofs and cement walls and floors and did not qualify for GiveDirectly's program). For details on how homes we visited were selected, see this footnote.64

We would characterize the ~15 households we visited (as well as other households we saw while walking but did not speak with directly) as extremely poor. We summarize characteristics of these households as follows:

• Most homes are made up of three rooms.
• The main room is a sitting area. In the homes we visited, this room varied in size from approximately 10'x12' to 12'x20'. This room has 3 doors: one to the outside; one to what appeared to be a storage room; one to a bedroom. The husband and wife sleep in the bedroom and the children sleep in the storage room or in the kitchen.
• The kitchen is often a separate structure, most often thatched-roof (even for homes that have tin roofs). Some households have no kitchen structure but just cook outside. Others have a small kitchen in place of a storage room.
• There are no doors in between rooms in the house, just hung curtains.
• The living room has many chairs and couches for sitting. They often almost fully cover the wall area (aside from doors). There are also coffee tables in the middle of the room. Poorer homes had less furniture; one home we saw had a single chair and a single broken table.
• People have wall hangings for decoration. The most common hanging we saw was old calendars (e.g., from 2003) that have pictures and can be used for decoration.
• Most houses had 1-2 kerosene lamps that provide light since they don't have electricity. One home (a non-recipient we visited) had two electric lights, which were powered with a solar panel.
• People we spoke with reported walking 5-20 minutes daily to obtain drinking water, which one recipient reported doing 1-2x per day.
• Most households owned a bicycle.
• Some households have radios (both of the non-recipients we saw had radios; one had a TV). Of the others, 3/14 had radios. These were most often powered with what looks like a car battery .
• Most people owned one cell phone pre-GiveDirectly.
• Households tend to own some livestock. Most commonly, we saw 1-2 cows and 4-5 chickens each. They say they use the milk from the cows for themselves and also sell it and many mentioned being able to sell their cows in the future when they need money for kids to go to secondary school.

Note that among the households we visited, many had already received part or all of their transfer from GiveDirectly, so these characterizations are based on a selection of households that include some newly-built or renovated structures in addition to older structures. Given that some of the recipients we met used transfers to build larger houses or buy livestock, our observations would likely over-estimate the assets of each household pre-transfer.

In addition, the homes we saw from afar in villages we visited and homes we passed while driving in the area appeared to be at a similar level of extreme poverty.

How do recipients spend their cash, and how does this spending impact their lives?

GiveDirectly provided us with data from responses recipients gave to an informal survey conducted by GiveDirectly staff for Rarieda and Siaya, concerning how recipients used their cash transfers.65 During our site visit in Kenya, GiveDirectly shared a document that reported the amount that each recipient in the Siaya I transfer round had spent on various items. The following were the primary uses of funds: (Note that GiveDirectly also explicitly asks respondents about other uses of funds, which we don't report below.)

• 67%: home improvement (e.g., replacing a thatched roof with an iron-sheet roof)
• 9%: other (during our site visit, we met with people who had spent funds on school uniforms, a motorcycle, among other things)
• 9%: livestock
• 4%: food

In our site visit to GiveDirectly recipients in Kenya, we asked about the value of these items.66 Recipients reported that their thatched-roofs frequently leak when it rains and require replacement every 3-4 months at a cost of 1,000 Kenyan shillings ($11.68 based on the exchange rate as of November 15, 2012)67 as well as time/labor. One recipient also reported that when it rains, she moves her family and their belongings into other structures to stay dry. Recipients reported buying livestock as an investment/savings device, hoping that they could (a) use the milk from the cow or goat for additional income and (b) sell the cow or goat and any offspring in the future if/when they needed additional funds (for e.g., secondary school fees for their children which are approximately 15,000 Kenyan shillings per year68 ($175.13 based on the exchange rate as of November 15, 2012).69

GiveDirectly also provided us with mid-line results from the RCT that Innovations for Poverty Action is conducting for its transfers in Rarieda.70 While it shared all the results with us, the study’s Principal Investigators asked that we not publish the document at this time. GiveDirectly also notes that these results are preliminary as (a) recipients had only received $200 of the transfer at the time they were surveyed and may spend the first dollars they receive differently from later dollars; (b) at the mid-line, researchers only surveyed recipients on a subset of the variables they thought would ultimately be most important; and (c) respondents were surveyed less than a year after beginning to receive transfers so these results may not fully reflect seasonal variations due to the agricultural cycle, school fees, and so forth. 71 With these caveats in mind, the mid-line results find significant (and statistically significant) increases in spending on food, housing, household durables, livestock, land purchases, and travel. It also finds statistically significant impacts on other variables though the amounts spent are smaller. It does not find a statistically significant effect on alcohol or tobacco expenditure.72 Of 43 total estimated treatment effects, 17 are significant at the 1% level, 22 at the 5% level, and 23 at the 10% level.73

We do not currently have information concerning further-out impacts such as nutritional or educational status. GiveDirectly's ongoing study in Rarieda may provide such information; however, because cash transfers may have benefits that are spread across many different outcomes, it may be difficult for a study to pick up an impact on a particular outcome.

Do the cash transfers cause problems and complications that offset their positive impact?

• Does distribution to some community members and not others result in jealousy, conflict, or related issues? GiveDirectly surveys recipients (post-transfer) on the following questions:74
  • Have there been any complaints or upset people in your community related to these transfers? Of the people who were complaining or upset, who were they upset with? Who has been complaining or upset about the transfers?
  • Has there been any shouting or angry arguments among people in your village about these transfers? If yes, describe.
  • Has there been any violence or crime in your village related to these transfers? If yes, describe.

  GiveDirectly sent us results from these surveys for Rarieda and Siaya.75

  For Rarieda, 31.3% of respondents reported complaining or upset people (note that this doesn't mean 31.3% of villagers were upset, merely that 31.3% noticed someone who was complaining or upset). Most of these complaints appeared to be connected with people who felt they were eligible but not receiving transfers. There were 4 reports (0.8% of respondents) of shouting or angry arguments, 5 reports (1% of respondents) of conflict within the household, and 1 report (0.2%) of violence or crime,76 out of 458-463 total people responding.

  For Siaya, 44% of respondents (70/159) reported complaining or upset people in the community. There were no reports of shouting or angry arguments, conflict within the household, violence or crime.

  Note that GiveDirectly surveys only cash recipients, not non-recipients.

• Do grants distort incentives and decisionmaking? We have not seen information on the question of whether individuals who live in the areas served by GiveDirectly change their behavior in order to increase their chances of receiving transfers - for example, by spending more time at home to increase their chances of being at home when GiveDirectly staff visit, or by choosing to live in poorer quality housing in hopes of receiving transfers. The one-off nature of transfers (recipients are not eligible for a second round of transfers)77 may help to mitigate these effects among past and current recipients. We also have seen some very limited evidence (mostly pointing to no distortion) in the broader literature on cash transfers.

  Another way in which grants may distort decisionmaking is if they are promised and not delivered in time (causing people to make plans that cannot be executed). We do not have data directly addressing this issue, but GiveDirectly did provide statistics on the speed with which transfers were received for Rarieda and Siaya.78 GiveDirectly told us that the key factor determining when a recipients receives funds is when he or she registers for M-PESA, which is something the recipient controls.79 In Rarieda, while 67% (359 of 536) of recipients waited less than a month and 84% (448 of 536) waited 3 months or less, 6% (34 of 536) waited 6 months or more. In Siaya (a later group), 188 of 193 recipients waited less than a month, and the remaining 5 waited 2-3 months. GiveDirectly comments:80

  We were able to accelerate [the time it took for recipients to register for M-PESA] significantly for two reasons: (a) we gave clearer instructions, and (b) we let recipients designate which household member they wanted to receive the transfers, which gives them flexibility to choose someone who already has a National ID; in the Rarieda round we could not do this as we were randomizing recipient gender. I expect the Nike cohort will take longer to register as that project focuses on 18-19 year old women, many of whom will not yet have IDs.
• Do grants distort local markets? It seems possible to us that a large infusion of cash into an area could alter economic opportunities for both recipients and non-recipients. Such effects could be positive (for example by spurring investment and job creation or by increasing the availability of retail goods) or negative (for example, by leading primarily to local inflation). We do not currently have information to address this issue (aside from some very limited evidence, pointing to no distortion, in the broader literature on cash transfers), but GiveDirectly's future evaluation plans (discussed below) may include a study that would provide information on the matter.

We also spoke with recipients and non-recipients during our site visit to GiveDirectly's operations in Kenya in November 2012. For more, see our site visit notes.

Do the funds GiveDirectly transfers fully reach recipients?

GiveDirectly transfers funds to recipients through M-PESA, a system that allows users to receive, send, deposit, and withdraw funds on their mobile phones. Recipients must present ID along with their mobile phone number and user-specified M-PESA pin code81 minimizing the ability of agents to defraud clients of funds.

Nonetheless, Lydia Tala, the GiveDirectly staff member responsible for making post-transfer phone calls to recipients, reports that one of the most common client complaints is the belief that M-PESA agents are overcharging or stealing funds. Ms. Tala believes that these reports are incorrect and that approximately 10% of recipients are not fully aware of how to use M-PESA, withdrawing funds without checking their balance and ultimately being surprised when they have drawn down their account.82 GiveDirectly told us that it recognizes this issue and tries to provide these recipients with assistance to help them navigate the M-PESA system.83

Does GiveDirectly divert skilled labor away from other areas?

GiveDirectly's field staff consists of a Field Assistant to the COO who has been employed fairly continuously since GiveDirectly distributed its Siaya I round of transfers in mid-2012, and sets of census takers, enrollers, and back checkers who gather information on a household-by-household basis.84

GiveDirectly reports that it receives approximately 10x the number of resumes as open positions, and that it hires one out of every three candidates it interviews. Successful candidates generally have a college education. They are paid approximately $8 per day in addition to expenses for travel and lodging while working.85

Are the size and structure of the cash transfers well-thought-through and appropriate?

GiveDirectly's current model is to make transfers of $1000 per household over 9 months,86 after which point recipients become ineligible.87 It gives the following rationale for the size of its transfers:88

We have reservations about the above reasoning:

• Regarding "fair." Pre-cash-transfer wealth/income differences between eligible and ineligible recipients may exist for a number of reasons; we don't believe it's warranted to assume that a "fair" world would see the two groups with the same wealth/income due to an equalizing transfer, and more to the point, we don't believe that the ineligible households are likely to see the situation as "fair." In addition, we are concerned that by aiming to equalize eligible and ineligible households, GiveDirectly takes on a substantial risk of its calculations being off in a way that leads to eligible households becoming systematically better off than ineligible households, which could distort incentives and lead to conflict.

  Strong evidence that the cash transfers do not lead to conflict and jealousy would reduce the weight we put on this concern, though as discussed above, it currently appears that GiveDirectly's cash transfers are leading to a fair amount of tension.

• Regarding "well-understood." GiveDirectly notes that its transfers are similar - in dollar terms - to those of government programs, but that they are likely much larger in "percentage of income" terms. We note that the cash transfer programs that have been studied to date seem to be in the range of 9-27% of recipients' annual consumption; by contrast, if GiveDirectly's clients average $0.65 in daily per capita consumption and receive an average of $288 per person over the course of a year (see above), this implies that people receive an average of 121% of their annual consumption in the year in which they receive the transfer.89 The quote above states that the lower level of initial income is an argument for making the cash transfer larger, but to us, it means that the risks of distorting incentives, causing conflict, etc. are likely to be greater than those of previously-studied programs, since the transfers are a substantially greater percentage of consumption. This issue is somewhat mitigated by the fact that GiveDirectly's transfers are designed as "wealth transfers" rather than as "income transfers": recipients receive funds over the course of a year and then become ineligible, whereas the government programs it alludes to have longer periods of eligibility. GiveDirectly has also told us that its decision to make larger transfers over a shorter period of time is based on recipients' reported preferences.90 But psychologically, the impact of GiveDirectly's transfers may be very different from those of government programs.

Our reservations about GiveDirectly's targeting strategy

We have reservations about the approach of targeting people based on the materials their houses are made of.

• As stated above, it is not clear to us that people in thatched-roof homes (eligible for transfers) are substantially and consistently poorer than people in iron-sheet-roofed homes with mud walls and floors (not eligible for transfers).
• As discussed above, cash transfers may lead to tension between recipients and non-recipients; making transfers to all people living in a village might mitigate this issue.
• We think it's possible that the difference between people in thatched-roof homes and people in iron-sheet-roofed homes comes down to fortune/luck (i.e., that the latter people have been more fortunate and thus have been able to afford iron sheets), but we also think it may come down to differences in choices regarding financial management (i.e., people in iron-sheet homes may have demonstrated better financial management and planning, thus allowing them to acquire iron sheets). If the latter is the case, there is a potential risk that GiveDirectly is systematically targeting the people who are less likely to use additional money well. GiveDirectly comments:91
  
  The most informative data available on this point are the differential impacts we’re seeing within the set of eligible households – specifically, poorer families seeing bigger impacts on nutrition while richer households see bigger impacts on tangible investment.

Future evaluation

GiveDirectly is currently conducting a randomized controlled trial in which eligible households are selected by lottery to receive cash transfers. These transfers were made in Rarieda (more information above) in 2011-12. It has publicly provided its plan for collecting and analyzing data to determine the impact of these transfers. We have already reviewed some data from this study, and hope that the endline data will shed further light on questions about potential impacts - both positive and negative - of cash transfers, as well as helping to identify the most promising directions for future research and data collection.

GiveDirectly also began another set of transfers that will be evaluated in a randomized controlled trial. These transfers target young women aged 18-19 and are being funded by the Nike Foundation. GiveDirectly has shared the survey instrument it plans to use with us.92 We are also hoping that GiveDirectly will share an analysis plan, as it did for its other ongoing study.

GiveDirectly is also potentially interested in conducting an additional study in which it would randomize villages to receive cash transfers, deliver cash transfers to all households in a chosen village, and then look for village-level effects (such as potential inflation, discussed above).93

What do you get for your dollar?

What percentage of GiveDirectly's expenses end up in the hands of recipients?

GiveDirectly aims to deliver at least 90 cents directly to recipients for every $1.00 in total expenses.94

As discussed above, data from GiveDirectly's distributions to date imply that it has been hitting this target. In addition, its unaudited financials for its most recent completed fiscal year (September 2011 through August 2012) show $339,620 in direct grants to households out of $379,240 in total expenses, for a ratio of ~90%.

Note that most of the costs of GiveDirectly's ongoing study are excluded from its budget. GiveDirectly has estimated that the experiment budget has covered $4,000 worth of costs that GiveDirectly would have paid in the absence of the RCT. This $4,000 is included in the financials referred to in the previous paragraph.95

Also excluded from GiveDirectly's costs are its unpaid CEO's time, which he estimates at 20 hours per week as well as approximately $30,000 spent by its board of directors on IT, outreach and legal expenses.96 Other board members have done some minor work (e.g., reviewing financial documents) but in our view this appears to be similar to the type of work carried out for most non-profits by their boards of directors.

Does GiveDirectly offer a large amount of humanitarian impact per dollar?

We have not conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis that attempts to quantify the benefits of cash transfers in humanitarian terms. Instead, in comparing cash transfers to the interventions conducted by our two other top charities, we have attempted to monetize some of the benefits of the latter, in particular the “developmental effects” of deworming and bednets. (In the case of the comparison with bednets, for instance, this means quantifying the estimated impact of bednets on later-in-life income of children, through a comparison with the effects of deworming, and then subjectively comparing the cost per life saved with the value of that amount of money as a cash transfer.)

In practice, these calculations are highly sensitive to assumptions, especially regarding:

• the investment returns to cash transfers;
• how much confidence one places in the developmental impacts of deworming based on limited evidence; and
• the subjective assessment of the relative value of averting child mortality and improving incomes.

We guess that in purely programmatic terms, and given our values, bednet distributions are more cost-effective than deworming, which is more cost-effective than cash transfers. However, we think there are plausible values for these assumptions that would permit any ordering of the three programs.

Details of our cost-effectiveness analysis are discussed in a 2012 blog post. The general picture is that deworming appears to be between 2 and 5 times as cost-effective as cash-transfers, in financial terms. We encourage readers who find formal cost-effectiveness analysis important to examine the details of our calculations and assumptions, and to try putting in their own. To the extent that we have intuitive preferences and biases, these could easily be creeping into the assumption- and judgment-call-laden work we’ve done in generating our cost-effectiveness figures, and we’re not entirely confident that the figures themselves are adding substantial information beyond the intuitions we have from examining the details of them.

More, including links to our spreadsheets, at our 2012 discussion of the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers and other interventions.

Room for more funding

GiveDirectly provided the following statement regarding its room for more funding:97

Note that the above incorporates the fact that GiveDirectly has recently received a $2.4 million grant (half of which it is now working to distribute as part of the Siaya II transfer round).98

While these funding goals constitute a significant expansion in its capacity, and that there exists some risk that as a relatively young organization GiveDirectly will struggle to transfer these funds, we believe that the risk does not seem too large and the benefit of enabling GiveDirectly to expand quickly is significant.

As of November 2012, GiveDirectly is in the process of enrolling 1,000 households to which it will transfer $1 million. Once this round is complete, we would expect GiveDirectly to be able to double its capacity for transfers and be in a position to move ~$2 million in early 2013. Assuming that goes well, GiveDirectly would be in a position to double again (~$4 million) in another transfer round in mid-to-late 2013. Because the vast majority of donors give near the end of the calendar year, we believe it is reasonable for donors to provide GiveDirectly with the funds it needs to maximize its potential for transfers in 2013.

Given that the primary capacity needs GiveDirectly has are surveyors to conduct the census, enroll recipients and back check eligibility and that GiveDirectly has successfully hired these employees in the past, we would guess that they would not struggle to hire many of these types of employees in the future. We also have the informal impression (from our site visit) that these types of employees are hired in greater quantities by Innovations for Poverty Action, which GiveDirectly has worked with in Kenya, so presumably there is sufficient supply of the types of employees GiveDirectly would hire to scale up

In our view, the biggest risk is that GiveDirectly is unable to find additional capacity at the executive-level to manage the expansion. Currently, GiveDirectly employs only one executive in the field, and adding capacity at this position might prove difficult.

Flexible vs. typical funds

GiveDirectly has stated to us that by default, it intends to use all funds for cash transfers along the same basic lines (in terms of size, structure and targeting) as its past programs, aiming to spend 90%+ of such donations directly on transfers. However, it has also stated to us that it is interested in making cash transfers in ways that differ from earlier protocols in order to continue experimenting and learning, such as (a) experimenting with different structures or different targeting approaches (including giving transfers to all members of a village, rather than targeting specific people within a village); (b) conducting more intensive studies, such as the one discussed above.

Accordingly, on our "Donate" page, we offer donors the option to have their funds be treated as "typical" donations (in which case the "default" approach applies) or as "flexible" donations (in which case GiveDirectly may use funds for other purposes, such as those discussed above). Consistent with our general policy of recommending unrestricted support, we recommend the latter and have marked it as the default option for our website.

GiveDirectly as an organization

We believe GiveDirectly to be an exceptionally strong and effective organization:

• Self-evaluation: GiveDirectly has invested heavily in self-evaluation from the start, and furthermore it has pre-registered its study design for additional accountability and credibility.
• Track record: Although it is very young, we feel that GiveDirectly's first year went well: GiveDirectly successfully accomplished its goal of transferring cash to extremely low-income people at a 90% ratio.
• Communication: GiveDirectly has always communicated extremely clearly and directly with us and given thoughtful answers to our critical questions. Generally, GiveDirectly seems to come to conclusions that we find reasonable on key questions.
• Transparency: GiveDirectly appears to value transparency as much as any organization we’ve encountered. We have not seen it hesitate to share information publicly (unless it had what we consider a good reason).

However, we continue to see potential room for improvement, particularly related to the fact that Paul Niehaus, the CEO, works only part-time (unpaid) for GiveDirectly. (GiveDirectly's COO is full-time.) It has been argued to us that having a part-time CEO is acceptable given the relative simplicity of the intervention GiveDirectly is carrying out, and that it has advantages since it creates a situation where the CEO's job security is not tied to the continuity of the organization. Despite these arguments, on balance we think it is a negative that the CEO is only part-time. We think that there is substantial potential for GiveDirectly to experiment with different approaches to its intervention and to engage in public conversation around its work, and that the CEO's undivided attention would be beneficial in those areas.

More on how we think about evaluating organizations at our 2012 blog post.

Sources

• Diwan, Faizan. Innovations for Poverty Project Associate. Conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.
• GiveDirectly. Analysis plan for randomized controlled trial (PPT).
• GiveDirectly. Annotated budget projections (May 11, 2012) (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Audit log (XLS).
• GiveDirectly. Back check instrument (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Balance sheet. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential temporarily.
• GiveDirectly. Board spending breakdown (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Capacity note (DOC).
• GiveDirectly. Clarifications on GiveWell's draft review of GiveDirectly (DOC).
• GiveDirectly. Contextualizing transfer size (DOC).
• GiveDirectly. Enrollment speed of distributions (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. FAQs. http://givedirectly.org/faqs.php (accessed January 12, 2012). Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/64e05vHkD.
• GiveDirectly. Financials. http://givedirectly.org/financials.php (accessed January 12, 2012). Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/64e07SFAl.
• GiveDirectly. GiveWell clarifications (March 28, 2012) (DOC).
• GiveDirectly. Income and expense. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential temporarily.
• GiveDirectly. IRS form 990 (2010) (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. M-PESA transfer history (XLSX).
• GiveDirectly. Name collection instrument (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Nike instrument (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Notes on verification data (November 17, 2011) (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Offering memorandum (January 2012). GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential.
• GiveDirectly. Notes to financial statements. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential temporarily.
• GiveDirectly. Operating efficiency as of 31 August 2012 (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Operational process overview (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Overview of targeting process (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Overview of update documents (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Post-transfer audit (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Rarieda verification. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential temporarily.
• GiveDirectly. Rarieda verification stats (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Room for more funding summary (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. RCT mid-line results overview. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential.
• GiveDirectly. RCT midline variables. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential.
• GiveDirectly. Siaya I enrollment database (XLS).
• GiveDirectly. Siaya II transfer schedule (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Siaya poverty data by location (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Siaya verification. GiveDirectly asked us to keep this document confidential temporarily.
• GiveDirectly. Siaya verification stats (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Siaya village index (XLSX).
• GiveDirectly. Survey for randomized controlled trial (XLS).
• GiveDirectly. Team. http://givedirectly.org/team.php (accessed on January 12, 2012). Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/64e1DISuU.
• GiveDirectly. Updated data (March 31, 2012) (XLS).
• GiveDirectly. Values. http://www.givedirectly.org/values.php (accessed November 19, 2012). Archived by WebCite® at http://www.webcitation.org/6CIH90bWJ.
• GiveDirectly. Verification data (November 17, 2011) (XLS).
• GiveDirectly. Verification template (November 7, 2011) (DOC).
• GiveDirectly. Verification template (October 1, 2012) (PDF).
• GiveDirectly. Village targeting regression (PDF).
• GiveWell. Household size analysis (XLS).
• GiveWell. Site visit notes (DOC).
• Mukhopadhyay, Piali. GiveDirectly COO. Email to GiveWell, January 25, 2012.
• Mukhopadhyay, Piali. GiveDirectly COO. Conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.
• Mukhopadhyay, Piali. GiveDirectly COO. Conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.
• Mukhopadhyay, Piali. GiveDirectly COO. Email to GiveWell, November 23, 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul, and Jeremy Shapiro. GiveDirectly Founders. Phone conversation with GiveWell, October 6, 2012 (DOC).
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Conversation with GiveWell, April 1, 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Conversation with GiveWell, October 22 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Conversation with GiveWell, November 5, 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Email to GiveWell, April 23, 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.
• Niehaus, Paul. GiveDirectly Founder. Email to GiveWell, November 24, 2012.
• Tala, Lydia. GiveDirectly Field Assistant. Conversation with GiveWell, November 6, 2012.
• Tala, Lydia. GiveDirectly Field Assistant. Conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.

• 1.

  "Kenya provides a unique opportunity because, while it has a large population below the poverty line, it also has a cheap, secure mobile payment system, M-PESA. We work in Kenya to take advantage of that opportunity. As reliable mobile payment systems expand in other countries we may expand as well." GiveDirectly, "FAQs."

• 2.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.

• 3.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya II transfer schedule."

• 4.

  "GiveDirectly stops issuing transfers after two years and clearly informs recipients that they should expect this." GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pg 33. (Note that at the time the Offering Memorandum was written, GiveDirectly's transfer schedule was different than it is as of November 2012.)

• 5.

  "GiveDirectly uses objective criteria to determine which households are eligible for transfers. We target households which do not have solid (cement or iron) walls, floors or roofs in their houses. Our research shows this criterion is highly correlated with acute poverty." GiveDirectly, "FAQs."

• 6.
  • "Our standard: Put at least 90% of every donated dollar in the hands of the poor." GiveDirectly, "Values."
  • "GiveDirectly commits to using your donation for one purpose: making transfers to the poor. Based on performance to date we expect to spend 6% of your donation on identifying and tracking recipients and on wire costs, and put the remaining 94% in recipients' hands." GiveDirectly, "Financials."
• 7.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya II transfer schedule."

• 8.

  "GiveDirectly stops issuing transfers after two years and clearly informs recipients that they should expect this." GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pg 33. (Note that at the time the Offering Memorandum was written, GiveDirectly's transfer schedule was different than it is as of November 2012.)

• 9.

  GiveWell, "Household size analysis."

• 10.

  GiveWell, "Household size analysis."

• 11.

  GiveDirectly, "Team."
  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 12.

  "GD has had one person working full-time since January of 2011. Jeremy Shapiro was full time during 2011 and Piali Mukyopadhyay is full-time now." GiveDirectly, "Clarifications on GiveWell's draft review of GiveDirectly."

• 13.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.
  Piali Mukhopadhyay, email to GiveWell, November 23, 2012.

• 14.

  See GiveDirectly, "Operating efficiency as of 31 August 2012," final table. For current expenses, we used the first column: $333,994/$372,228 = ~89.7%. For projected total expenses, we used the third column: $785,500/$853,573 = ~92%. Note that this table gives projected expenditures including "top-ups" of current treatment groups receiving below $1000. GiveDirectly has told us that it plans to carry out these "top-ups," assuming it receives sufficient funds. GiveDirectly, "Room For More Funding Summary."

• 15.

  GiveDirectly, "Operating efficiency as of 31 August 2012," final table. Note that this table gives projected expenditures including "top-ups" of current treatment groups receiving below $1000. GiveDirectly has told us that it plans to carry out these "top-ups," assuming it receives sufficient funds. GiveDirectly, "Room For More Funding Summary."

• 16.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 17.

  Paul Niehaus, conversation with GiveWell, October 22, 2012.

• 18.

  "1. County level – we look at data on poverty, population density, presence of poverty-focused NGOs (which we try to avoid), and security.
  2. Village level – we collect basic information on villages (e.g. distance to town, number of schools) and plug these into an algorithm that predicts mean income." GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 19.

  See GiveDirectly, "Siaya Village Index" for the calculations that GiveDirectly did to create "poverty scores" for different villages in Siaya. The weights placed on each indicator (in constructing the index) were determined using the process described in GiveDirectly, "Village Targeting Regression": the more detailed "poverty scores" from GiveDirectly's Rarieda study were regressed on indicators such as "village population," "number of boreholes," etc.

• 20.

  In Rarieda (the site of the RCT and the first transfers GiveDirectly provided), GiveDirectly sought poorer districts (based on 2005 census data) that were in places with sufficient accessibility, M-PESA usage, population density to make it more convenient, proximity to Innovations for Poverty Action (the RCT implementer) offices and where there would be a sufficient number of potential recipients in this district (# of thatched roof houses). GiveDirectly chose to work in Rarieda District because it was slightly poorer than the nearby Siaya district. In Rarieda, there are slightly more than 300 villages, and GiveDirectly conducted a census in each village to determine the number of eligible (thatched-roof) and ineligible households in each. It then selected the 100 with the highest proportion of thatched-roof to non-thatched-roof households, and randomly selected 60 of those to serve as the treatment and control groups in its trial. (Faizan Diwan, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012; paraphrased.)

  GiveDirectly chose to work in Siaya District, the location of the three other sets of transfers GiveDirectly has initiated, because it shared local administration with the Rarieda District, making expansion easier; it chose not to remain in Rarieda because it did not want to overlap in areas in which the RCT was being conducted. Using administrative data, it chose 3 locations within Siaya that it believed had the highest poverty levels. It then carried out the process described in the main text to rank the 100 villages in these locations. GiveDirectly was not able to contact all village elders to obtain data (staff estimate they reached 85 out of 100) and it excluded villages whose village elders it was not able to reach. In June 2012, it selected the 7 villages which its model ranked as highest poverty to receive the Siaya I transfers. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012; paraphrased.)

  For the project funded by the Nike Foundation, GiveDirectly selected the next 36 villages in its ranked list of 100 villages in Siaya District, as this number of villages provided a sample size sufficient to meet their target size. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012; paraphrased.)

  In the set of transfers we have called Siaya II, GiveDirectly is continuing to work down the list of 100 villages to target those not already targeted in the Siaya I or Nike Foundation transfers. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012; paraphrased.)

• 21.

  "When entering a new area, the COO meets with a series of officials to explain the project, obtain permission, and establish a relationship in case any problems arise:

  • District Commissioner
  • Chief
  • Assistant chiefs
  • Village elders"

  GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 22.

  In the Rarieda transfers, a census of all households was completed before enrollment. However, in this case, the census process was implemented by Innovations for Poverty Action, the organization managing the randomized controlled trial of GiveDirectly's program as opposed to GiveDirectly staff.

  In the Siaya I transfers, GiveDirectly did not complete a full census of all households in the village. Instead, staff went to the village elder and asked him to take them to each thatched-roof household in the village to verify that it was eligible for the transfer. GiveDirectly changed its process when it discovered that some village elders were assisting friends or family members in pretending that they live in thatched-roof houses so that they could receive transfers. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell November 7, 2012; paraphrased.)

  In the Siaya/Nike round, GiveDirectly staff requested that the village elder lead them to eligible households: women aged 18-19, living in thatched-roof homes. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012; paraphrased.)

• 23.

  "Enumerators enter villages, engage a local to serve as guide for the day, and
  enumerate all households living in the village, noting which homes are eligible." GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 24.

  "Household level – we enroll households living in mud and thatch homes." GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 25.

  In this project, GiveDirectly approached the Village Elder and asked him to take them to women aged 18-19 who met GiveDirectly's normal eligibility criteria. It then randomly selected half of them as the treatment group to receive cash transfers. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012; paraphrased.)

• 26.

  "Enrollment. A second, distinct enumerator returns to enroll households identified as eligible, give them a SIM card and instructions on how to register if needed." GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 27.

  See process description in GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 3.

• 28.

  As noted above, in the Siaya I transfer round, GiveDirectly's staff initially engaged the village elder to lead them to eligible households. Once they had been led to an eligible home, GiveDirectly staff provided the household with a SIM card and enrolled them in the program. Thus, in Siaya I, there was one fewer back-check than exists in the current process. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012; paraphrased.)

• 29.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya I Enrollment Database."

• 30.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012. Ms. Mukhopadhyay told us that she had reviewed cases in which some members of the village told GiveDirectly's staff that enrollees were not eligible because they did not live in thatched-roof homes. In these cases, Ms. Mukhopadhyay decided to exclude these potential recipients.

• 31.

  GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 32.

  See process description in GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 3.

• 33.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya I Enrollment Database."

• 34.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 35.

  This has not yet happened, and the Siaya II round is the first round in which this will take place. (Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012; paraphrased.)

• 36.

  GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 1.

• 37.

  "Back-checking. Another enumerator, distinct from the census and enrollment workers, revisits each enrolled household to check that they eligible, didn’t have to pay a bribe to enroll, etc." GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 2.

• 38.

  See process description in GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 3.

• 39.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya I Enrollment Database."

• 40.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, Conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.

• 41.

  GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 2.

• 42.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya I Enrollment Database."

• 43.

  GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 2.

• 44.

  See process description in GiveDirectly, "Operational Process Overview," Pg 3.

• 45.

  Pialia Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.

• 46.

  In past transfer rounds, GiveDirectly transferred a first, full installment to recipients before its first call; in its Siaya II round, GiveDirectly implemented the intial small transfer to enable it to idenfity problems before transfering the larger amount. Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012; paraphrased.

• 47.

  Pialia Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.

• 48.
  • GiveDirectly, "Rarieda verification stats."
  • GiveDirectly, "Siaya verification stats."
• 49.

  Paul Niehaus, conversation with GiveWell, October 22, 2012.

• 50.

  See GiveWell, "Site visit notes."

• 51.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya I Enrollment Database."

• 52.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya Verification Stats."

• 53.

  Paul Niehaus, conversation with GiveWell, October 22, 2012.

• 54.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.

• 55.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012.

• 56.

  The back-checks identified two households had cement floors, which normally would disqualify them, but GiveDirectly determined that a charity had cemented these household's floors as part of a campaign to prevent jiggers (a parasite) from infecting barefoot children living in the home. Because the floor had been installed as part of this charity's campaign, GiveDirectly felt that the existence of a cement floor was not an indication of the households' wealth. Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012; paraphrased.

• 57.

  GiveDirectly, "Survey for Randomized Controlled Trial."

• 58.

  GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pgs 23-24.

• 59.

  GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pg 25.
  

• 60.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

• 61.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 24, 2012.

• 62.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

• 63.

  Below we list all the estimated treatment effects:

  • Total household expenditure
  • Food expenditure
  • Alcohol and tobacco expenditure
  • Airtime expenditure
  • Travel expenditure
  • Lottery tickets and gambling expenditure
  • Clothing expenditure
  • Recreation expenditure
  • Personal items expenditure
  • Household items expenditure
  • Firewood expenditure
  • Electricity expenditure
  • Water expenditure
  • Security expenditure
  • Rent expenditure
  • Medical expenditure
  • Education expenditure
  • Dowry payments
  • Payments to village elder / chief
  • Contributions to charity One
  • Gifts given within village
  • Gifts given outside of village
  • Land expenditure
  • Farm inputs expenditure
  • Livestock purchasing expenditure
  • Enterprise inputs expenditure
  • Enterprise capital goods expenditure
  • Housing investment expenditure
  • Religious and ceremonial expenditure
  • Weddings expenditure
  • Funerals expenditure
  • Household durables expenditure
  • Number of children enrolled in primary school
  • Number of children enrolled in secondary school
  • Have adults skipped meals?
  • Have adults gone whole days without meals?
  • Have children skipped meals?
  • Have children gone whole days without meals?
  • Does everyone in the household regularly eat 2 meals per day?
  • Does everyone in the household eat until content each day?
  • Do you have enough food in the house for tomorrow's meals?
  • Did you sleep hungry during the past week because there was there was not enough food?
  • Number of times protein eaten during the last week

  Of 43 total estimated treatment effects, 17 are significant at the 1% level, 22 at the 5% level, and 23 at the 10% level.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

• 64.

  Several recipient households had been selected by GiveDirectly for our visit as representative of how recipients use funds. 2 locations (and the households within them) were selected as a function of GiveDirectly's activities that day -- an area of Rarieda where the end-line survey for the RCT was being implemented and an area of Siaya where enrollment was being undertaken. In both cases, we don't know whether enrollment and surveying activities were taking place elsewhere that day which would have given GiveDirectly discretion in choosing these areas.

  On the final day of our visit, we asked GiveDirectly whether we could randomly select 3 households to visit. GiveDirectly sent us a list of 15 households in a location in Rarieda where the end-line survey for the RCT was complete and therefore we could question recipients without interfering with the RCT. We don't know whether GiveDirectly had discretion in choosing these 15 households. We selected 5 households from the list using Excel's RAND() function and visited 3 of them. (GiveDirectly made appointments with the households in advance and could not reach 2 of them.)

  We would characterize all the households we visited -- those that GiveDirectly fully selected for us, those over which GiveDirectly had less discretion, and those we selected randomly -- as extremely poor. We did not see any significant differences in wealth between them.

• 65.
  • GiveDirectly, "Rarieda verification stats."
  • GiveDirectly, "Siaya verification stats."
• 66.

  For full details of our interviews with recipients, see GiveWell, "Site visit notes."

• 67.

  Provided by Google via Citibank N.A. on November 15, 2012.

• 68.

  Lydia Tala, Conversation with GiveWell, November 6, 2012.

• 69.

  Provided by Google via Citibank N.A. on November 15, 2012.

• 70.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

• 71.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 24, 2012.

• 72.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

• 73.

  GiveDirectly. "RCT Mid-line Results Overview."

  Below we list all the estimated treatment effects:

  • Total household expenditure
  • Food expenditure
  • Alcohol and tobacco expenditure
  • Airtime expenditure
  • Travel expenditure
  • Lottery tickets and gambling expenditure
  • Clothing expenditure
  • Recreation expenditure
  • Personal items expenditure
  • Household items expenditure
  • Firewood expenditure
  • Electricity expenditure
  • Water expenditure
  • Security expenditure
  • Rent expenditure
  • Medical expenditure
  • Education expenditure
  • Dowry payments
  • Payments to village elder / chief
  • Contributions to charity One
  • Gifts given within village
  • Gifts given outside of village
  • Land expenditure
  • Farm inputs expenditure
  • Livestock purchasing expenditure
  • Enterprise inputs expenditure
  • Enterprise capital goods expenditure
  • Housing investment expenditure
  • Religious and ceremonial expenditure
  • Weddings expenditure
  • Funerals expenditure
  • Household durables expenditure
  • Number of children enrolled in primary school
  • Number of children enrolled in secondary school
  • Have adults skipped meals?
  • Have adults gone whole days without meals?
  • Have children skipped meals?
  • Have children gone whole days without meals?
  • Does everyone in the household regularly eat 2 meals per day?
  • Does everyone in the household eat until content each day?
  • Do you have enough food in the house for tomorrow's meals?
  • Did you sleep hungry during the past week because there was there was not enough food?
  • Number of times protein eaten during the last week
• 74.

  GiveDirectly sent 7 versions of the survey forms it used, as the form was modified over time. For the most recent version we have seen, see GiveDirectly, "Verification Template (October 1, 2012)."

  For an earlier version as well as corresponding data, see GiveDirectly, "Verification Template (November 7, 2011)," and GiveDirectly, "Verification Data (November 17, 2011)."

• 75.
  • GiveDirectly, "Rarieda verification stats."
  • GiveDirectly, "Siaya verification stats."
• 76.

  GiveDirectly told us that this report came from someone who reported that another recipient had had part of their transfer stolen. Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 77.

  "GiveDirectly stops issuing transfers after two years and clearly informs recipients that they should expect this." GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pg 33. (Note that at the time the Offering Memorandum was written, GiveDirectly's transfer schedule was different than it is as of November 2012.)

• 78.

  GiveDirectly, "Enrollment speed of distributions."

• 79.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 80.

  GiveDirectly, "Overview of updated documents."

• 81.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 8, 2012 and GiveWell visit to M-PESA agent, November 8, 2012.

  M-PESA users enter the amount they want to withdraw on their own phone, and after each transaction, M-PESA users can see their remaining balance,

  GiveWell visit to M-PESA agent, November 8, 2012.

• 82.

  Lydia Tala, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.

• 83.

  GiveDirectly does this through its hotline, and staff sometimes contact M-PESA agents to notify them one of our clients will be visiting and may need assistance. Piali Mukhopadhyay, email to GiveWell, November 23, 2012.

• 84.

  Piali Mukhopadhyay, conversation with GiveWell, November 7, 2012.

• 85.

  Paul Niehaus, conversation with GiveWell, October 22, 2012.

• 86.

  GiveDirectly, "Siaya II transfer schedule."

• 87.

  "GiveDirectly stops issuing transfers after two years and clearly informs recipients that they should expect this." GiveDirectly, "Offering Memorandum (January 2012)," Pg 33. (Note that at the time the Offering Memorandum was written, GiveDirectly's transfer schedule was different than it is as of November 2012.)

• 88.

  GiveDirectly, "Contextualizing Transfer Size."

• 89.

  $0.65 in pre-cash-transfer income per person per day implies (365*$0.65) = $237.25 per person per year. If each person receives $288 in a year from GiveDirectly, that's (288/237.25) = 121%.

• 90.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012. We have not reviewed the data GiveDirectly used to reach this conclusion.

• 91.

  Paul Niehaus, email to GiveWell, November 20, 2012.

• 92.

  GiveDirectly. "Nike Instrument."

• 93.

  Conversation with Paul Niehaus, October 22, 2012.

• 94.
  • " Our standard: Put at least 90% of every donated dollar in the hands of the poor." GiveDirectly, "Values."
  • "GiveDirectly commits to using your donation for one purpose: making transfers to the poor. Based on performance to date we expect to spend 6% of your donation on identifying and tracking recipients and on wire costs, and put the remaining 94% in recipients' hands." GiveDirectly, "Financials."
• 95.

  "[We have] included on our books our best estimate of the RCT costs that would normally have been incurred by GiveDirectly, i.e. $4,000, primarily for travel expenses. This cost is included in all of our performance figures." GiveDirectly, "GiveWell Clarifications (March 28, 2012)."

• 96.

  Paul Niehaus, conversation with GiveWell, October 22, 2012.
  GiveDirectly, "Board Spending Breakdown."

• 97.

  GiveDirectly, "Room For More Funding Summary."

• 98.

  "A grant agreement earmarks $190K for setup costs associated with expanding to a second country and $2.21M for cash transfers in Kenya and this new country." GiveDirectly, "Overview of update documents."