The Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is one of our two
top-rated charities, and an organization that we feel offers donors an outstanding opportunity to accomplish good with their donations.
More information:
Published: November 28, 2011
Summary
AMF (www.againstmalaria.com) provides long-lasting
insecticide-treated nets (for protection against
malaria) in bulk to other organizations, which then distribute them in developing countries.
AMF is a recommended organization because of its:
- focus on a program with a strong track record and excellent cost-effectiveness (more).
- standout transparency and accountability - it publishes photographs and reports from each of its distributions and has begun requiring the organizations that distribute its nets to follow up in the years following the distribution (more).
- room for more funding - AMF has told us that it can use additional funding to expand its core program and has committed to reporting on how additional funds are used and what results are achieved.
Our review, below, discusses our full assessment of AMF, including what we see as its strengths and weaknesses as well as issues we have yet to resolve.
Note: We have requested AMF delay allocating all GiveWell-attributable donated funds if it feels this would assist in funding larger distributions. Therefore, if you give to AMF through GiveWell's website and/or report your donation is due to GiveWell, your donation may not be allocated to an LLIN distribution immediately. If you would prefer it be allocated immediately, you can contact AMF to request this (more).
Our review process
We began reviewing AMF in 2009. Our review has consisted of:
- Reviewing AMF's public records for each of its net distributions and other documents AMF has shared with us.
- Extensive communication, including a meeting at AMF's London headquarters, with AMF Founder Rob Mather to discuss AMF's methods and funding needs
- A visit to AMF's distribution partner organization in Malawi in October 2011 (notes and photos from this visit).
Previous report on Against Malaria Foundation:
2010 review.
A few key terms for this review
- A net refers to any bednet intended to block mosquitoes, whether treated with insecticide or not.
- An ITN is an insecticide-treated net. As discussed at our write-up on ITNs, distribution of ITNs has been rigorously studied and associated with declines in under-5 mortality and overall malaria cases.
- A LLIN is a long-lasting insecticide-treated net, intended to serve as an effective ITN for 4-5 years (details at our write-up on ITNs). The nets distributed by AMF are LLINs, and (as noted in our write-up) most large-scale donor-financed malaria control today utilizes LLINs.
What do they do?
AMF provides long-lasting
insecticide-treated nets (for protection against
malaria) in bulk to other organizations, which then distribute them in developing countries.
Allocating LLINs
In the past, AMF has used two processes for allocating LLINs:
- Smaller-scale distributions (which AMF has de-emphasized as of November 2011): AMF allocated LLINs by accepting proposals from non-profit organizations seeking LLINs, reviewing proposals through its Malaria Advisory Group (MAG), and purchasing LLINs for approved proposals. Notes that until 2010, this was the only type of distribution AMF made. After November 2011, AMF decided to move primarily to large-scale distributions.
- Larger-scale distributions: In early 2011 AMF received a $1 million donation and decided to use this donation to contribute to a national universal coverage campaign (i.e., a project to cover every sleeping space in a country with an LLIN) in Malawi. It expects these larger-scale distributions to be the primary way in which it distributes LLINs in the future (more below). AMF told us that it used the following process for this distribution, and that it expects to use a similar process for large-scale distributions in the future:
- It first sought out "directional" information on where gaps in coverage were likely occurring. It received estimates of country-level gaps from the Alliance for Malaria Prevention and the African Leaders Malaria Alliance. Note that the materials AMF has sent us from the period prior to its decision to enter Malawi do not include quantified estimates of Malawi's LLIN gap, though they do make it clear that there is a gap, and later reports (from after AMF had decided on Malawi) show a gap for the country. AMF also told us that it uses information from distribution partners and distribution experts to identify country-level gaps.
- After identifying a country-level LLIN gap in Malawi, it then requested data from the National Malaria Control Program on district-level population figures and past net distributions, in order to estimate how many additional LLINs were required for universal coverage. AMF provided details of how these estimates were obtained and the results for Malawi to us. In September 2011, the Malawi National Malaria Control Program estimated that 6.1 million LLINs were needed to achieve universal coverage, 5.2 million of which were expected from sources other than AMF.
- Finally, AMF chose a distribution partner that it had worked with previously on a smaller-scale distribution in Malawi and requested a distribution proposal from this organization. Distribution proposals include information on malaria risk in the distribution area (including data on reported malaria cases), other net distribution, coordination with government, and how the distribution will be carried out. AMF is now working with this partner (Concern Universal) and another funder to distribute LLINs in the Ntcheu district of Malawi; this partnership has full responsibility for the Ntcheu district.
Monitoring
- Pre-distribution surveys: AMF told us that it is beginning to request that distribution partners determine, at a household level, who will receive LLINs and how many LLINs are needed before AMF approves its proposal. AMF sent us two examples of pre-distribution surveys that have been completed, both from smaller scale distributions. We observed preparations for the the pre-distribution survey in Malawi during a visit to Malawi in October 2011.
- Monitoring of distributions: AMF posts "immediate post-distribution" reports and photos and videos of the distribution taking place on its website; these are consistently available for past completed distributions (all of which are smaller-scale distributions).
- Post-distribution surveys: AMF has begun to request that the nonprofits that distribute its nets survey 2-4% of the households (1-2% of households for large-scale distributions) that receive nets at 6 months, 18 months, 30 months, and 42 months after the distribution. Surveys ask about net use and net condition. AMF posts the results of these surveys on its website. AMF told us that it asks its partner organizations to randomly select survey respondents and that it believes that this is generally done well; we have not seen reports from partner organizations on how, specifically, respondents were chosen. Of the 15 post-distribution reports that were expected from smaller-scale distributions completed in 2010, AMF had received 11 as of November 2011.
Does it work?
On a
separate page, we discuss the general evidence behind distribution of LLINs. We conclude that there is strong evidence that these distributions can be expected to reduce infant mortality and malaria cases.
When evaluating the effectiveness of an LLIN distribution organization, we seek to answer the following questions:
- Are LLINs targeted at people who do not already have them? AMF distributions have generally taken reasonable measures to find where LLINs are needed: AMF partners are asked to coordinate with national control programs, and recent/larger distributions have also conducted pre-distribution surveys. We are not fully satisfied with the pre-distribution surveys' ability to ensure that people aren't under-reporting their existing LLIN ownership in order to get more LLINs, but believe that reasonable measures are being taken to address this issue.
- Do the LLINs reach the intended destinations? AMF has a strong track record of posting concrete information on the status of LLIN distributions, including pictures of LLINs being handed out and in some cases hanging in homes.
- Are LLINs targeted at areas with high rates of malaria? We feel that AMF has taken reasonable measures to target appropriately malaria-endemic regions and is likely targeting such regions successfully.
- Do those who receive the LLINs install them in their homes properly? Do they utilize them consistently over the long term? AMF has recently begun collecting more information on this question. The information it has collected so far reports promising results, but has unclear methodology.
- Do AMF's LLINs increase the total number of LLINs distributed, or would the organizations they work with find LLINs elsewhere if not for AMF? The limited evidence we have suggests the former. We are more confident regarding this issue for AMF's larger-scale distributions than for its smaller-scale distributions.
Details follow.
Are LLINs targeted at people who do not already have them?
Previously (for smaller-scale distributions), AMF relied on distribution partners' reports of existing insecticide-treated net coverage in an area, and asked partners to coordinate with the national malaria control program. As of November 2011, AMF was just beginning to more systematically determine needs on a household-level basis. We have seen two examples of pre-distribution surveys, in which distribution partners determined how many sleeping spaces in each household were not covered by a useable insecticide-treated net and reported this data to AMF. We have seen details of how the survey was conducted for one of the two examples, and it appears to be of relatively high quality, while for the other we have only seen the completed beneficiary list and not the process that went into creating it. AMF told us that conducting pre-distribution surveys and creating beneficiary lists before the distribution will be a requirement for all distributions by March 2012.
A pre-distribution survey will be conducted for the large-scale distribution in Malawi. This process will include door-to-door surveys of every household in the targeted district by government health workers, followed by village meetings in which staff of AMF's distribution partner will read off household names and the number of LLINs that have been allocated to each household; households can then indicate if any errors have been made. We observed one such village verification meeting during our
visit to Malawi in October 2011. Based on GiveWell's suggestion, AMF's distribution partner has also stated an intention to send its staff to random households at this stage to spot-check the accuracy of its data. After the first two weeks of spot checks, the distribution partner reported that it had not found any discrepancies between number of nets community members said they needed during the verification meeting, and the number of nets found to be needed during the subsequent household visit.
AMF has committed to sharing this data with us.
We believe it is possible that some households may over-report the number of LLINs they need. Cases of households hiding nets in order to receive extra LLINs have been observed in universal campaigns in Senegal and Nigeria. That said, we believe that the steps AMF and its partners are taking to minimize the ability of community members to request more nets than they need are reasonable. We will look for the same approach in future AMF distributions, and will request details of how nets were allocated at the household level.
In Malawi, household surveys conducted by the National Malaria Control Programme (in districts not receiving AMF LLINs) have found "much larger LLIN gaps then first thought," and it is not clear to us what the cause of this discrepancy is. Possible explanations include a) an overestimate of how long previously distributed LLINs last before they become unusable and b) overstating by households, when asked, the number of nets they need. We will seek more information when available to assess what this indicates about ensuring nets are accurately distributed and used in large scale distributions.
Do the LLINs reach the intended destination?
AMF posts approximately 10-40 photos for each of its completed distributions. These photos mainly show LLINs arriving in the village, a speech or presentation before nets are handed out, people receiving LLINs, and sometimes, a LLIN or two hanging in a house. In 2010, AMF completed 20 distributions spanning 74 "sub-locations" (areas in which a few hundred to a few thousand LLINs were distributed). As of October 2011, AMF had posted photos on its website from 63 of the 74 sub-locations. Photos show only a small percentage of LLINs (at most a few dozen of the hundreds or thousands of LLINs allocated to the distribution). AMF also posted a distribution report from each of the 20 distributions, written by the partner organization that conducted the distribution. These reports provide details of where and how LLINs were distributed and what problems were encountered during the distribution.
In addition, AMF provided details of how it followed up on a distribution that it suspected may not have been carried out as planned. For this distribution, AMF did not receive a distribution report in a timely fashion and the report, when it did arrive, raised questions about whether LLINs were distributed as planned. AMF contacted a hospital near the distribution site and asked it to send a survey team to visit randomly-selected houses on the distribution partner's beneficiary list and ask whether they had received LLINs and knew how to use them properly. The survey team found that 94 of 96 households visited had received a LLIN, 93 LLINs were in the house at the time of the survey, 70 were hanging, and 68 of 81 people asked to demonstrate LLIN use did so properly.
For smaller distributions, AMF has required distribution partners to provide photographs from approximately one out of 15 villages, or one set of photographs for about every 5000 LLINs distributed. For larger distributions, it will require photographs from approximately one out of every 30 villages, or one set of photographs for about every 10,000 LLINs.
Are LLINs targeted at areas with high rates of malaria?
At the highest level, AMF appears to exclusively target countries with known malaria risk. At a more local level, AMF's proposal form asks applicants for information about the malaria risk level in the proposed distribution location, including requesting data on past malaria cases and deaths. AMF's Malaria Advisory Group, which includes the Director of the Malaria Atlas Project, a group that has compiled data on malaria risk by location, reviews these proposals and comments on whether the proposal should be approved. However, it is our understanding that the Malaria Advisory Group relies on knowledge of malaria risk at a regional level, rather than knowledge of specific distribution locations.
We have seen examples in which the Malaria Advisory Group raised questions about the malaria risk level in a proposed distribution area, and the proposal was then funded by AMF. We asked AMF about these cases and found its answers, on the whole, reasonable. In 2010, AMF provided us with proposals that it had declined to fund because of unanswered questions about rates of malaria in the area. AMF provided more recent examples of requests of LLINs that it declined to fund (mostly in the form of initial emails from organizations), but as these requests did not reach the stage of submitting full proposals and being reviewed by the Malaria Advisory Group, we have not seen comments on why these requests were denied.
Do those who receive the LLINs install them in their homes properly?
We have relatively little information about this question. We have seen some results from post-distribution surveys, but it is not clear to us whether these surveys are representative of all recipients of AMF nets. In particular, AMF told us that distribution partners are asked to randomly select surveyed households, but we have not seen details of how surveyed households are selected in practice.
Of the 20 distributions that were completed in 2010, six-month post-distribution surveys are available for 8. Surveys are not available for all distributions in part because AMF only recently instituted the requirement to conduct surveys. These surveys generally report very high correct usage rates (88% to 100%). It is our understanding that AMF does not have a process for auditing the accuracy of post-distribution surveys.
AMF now requires all groups that receive nets to complete post-distribution surveys at 6, 18, 30, and 42 months after the distribution. For smaller distributions, about 2-4% of households that receive LLINs will be surveyed; in larger distributions about 1-2% of households will be surveyed.
Do those who receive the LLINs utilize them consistently over the long term?
We have relatively little information about this question. AMF's distribution partners have conducted a few longer-term follow-up studies, though, as we discuss above, we have concerns about the representativeness of these surveys. As of October 2011, AMF had posted data from five 18-month post-distribution surveys, two 30-month surveys, and four 42-month surveys. These limited surveys found high reported usage (94% on average), high correct usage (90%), and fairly good LLIN conditions after 18 months (83% "very good" or "OK," with the remainder "poor" or "worn out") that decline over time (44% "very good" or "OK" at 42 months).
Do AMF's LLINs increase the total number of LLINs distributed, or would the organizations they work with find LLINs elsewhere if not for AMF?
- Regarding smaller-scale distributions, we have requested information on requests for LLINs that AMF did not fund, and AMF sent five requests: one from January 2010 and four from March to July 2011. We contacted these organizations in November 2011 to ask whether they had received LLINs from another source or purchased them since they submitted the request. We received three responses; all three reported that they had not received nets from other sources or purchased them. We did not receive a response from the organization that submitted a request in January 2010.
- For the large-scale distribution in Malawi, AMF has received data from the National Malaria Control Program (discussed above) on population figures and LLINs already distributed by district, as well as LLINs that have been committed to the country by other funders. AMF estimated that, as of September 2011, an additional 909,586 nets were needed to achieve universal coverage, of which AMF planned to contribute 228,465 (the estimated number needed in one district, Ntcheu).
Possible negative or offsetting impact
- Do donated nets displace government health funding? This could be a concern if government funding that otherwise would have been spent on LLINs is spent on other, less worthwhile budget items. We have little sense of how important a concern this is in AMF's case. In the case of the large-scale distribution in Malawi, all anticipated nets were expected from international donors, and the total supply appears to be still insufficient for country-wide universal coverage.
- Will insecticide-treated nets continue to be effective? As discussed at our report on insecticide-treated nets, there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of this intervention, but there is a possibility that environmental changes, including changes in the size and insecticide-susceptibility of mosquito populations, could affect how well insecticide-treated nets work.
- Do free LLIN distributions distort incentives for recipients or distort local markets for nets? As discussed at our report on insecticide-treated nets, we feel that there is a reasonably strong case for distributing LLINs freely rather than selling them at market (or even below-market) prices.
- Could distribution of LLINs be inequitable and unfair, causing problems in the targeted communities? We feel that the process being followed for AMF's large-scale distribution is well-suited to ensuring that all who want LLINs receive them. We know less about its procedures for smaller-scale distributions, which are being de-emphasized going forward.
- Does AMF divert skilled labor from other areas?: Net distribution appears to be conducted by low-level government health staff in partnership with the staff of AMF's partner NGO. We don't believe that the issue of diverting skilled labor is particularly salient for AMF relative to other organizations, but we are not certain.
What do you get for your dollar?
Cost per LLIN distributed
In this section, we estimate the projected cost per LLIN for 2012. We focus on the projected cost per LLIN in 2012 rather than on the past cost per LLIN because, as discussed
above, AMF recently shifted from a focus on smaller-scale to larger-scale distributions, and, in 2012, AMF expects to distribute far more LLINs than it has in past years (it is aiming to distribute 1 million LLINs). In the table below, we estimate the costs per LLIN for 2012 distributions, using a combination of past costs and future projections, along with details about how we made each estimate.
We prefer to include all costs incurred to carry out a project, not just those that the charity in question pays for itself. We believe that this gives the best view of what it costs to achieve a particular impact (such as saving a life), and also avoids the lack of clarity and complications of
leverage in charity. The estimates below include both costs paid by AMF to purchase LLINs, the costs AMF incurs to run its organization, and the costs paid by the distribution partners that AMF works with to ship and distribute LLINs and to monitor the distributions.
Projected cost per LLIN for 2012, assuming 1 million LLINs distributed
For full details and calculations, see our
total costs and
Concern Universal and local government costs spreadsheets.
| Item | Cost | Components |
| LLIN purchase cost | $4.23 | N/A |
| Value of donated services per LLIN | $0.21 | Audit fee, information technology, marketing, banking fees, legal fees, etc., and our estimate of the equivalent cost of the CEO salary (the CEO does not currently take a salary and does not intend to in the future). |
| AMF organizational costs per LLIN | $0.17 | General office expenses, information technology, and marketing |
| Non-AMF cost per LLIN | $0.92 | Cost of shipping LLINs, pre-distribution surveys, distribution costs (including distribution staff salaries paid by the government and transportation), monitoring/follow-up at 6-42 months, Concern Universal staff salaries and office costs. |
| Total cost per LLIN | $5.54 | |
| Marginal cost per LLIN | $5.15 | Excludes pro bono and charity central costs; see next section for further discussion. |
Total cost versus marginal cost per LLIN
We have calculated both the total cost per LLIN and the marginal cost per LLIN. The total cost includes every cost (or cost equivalent) that we have identified that was incurred by all involved groups. The marginal cost excludes fixed costs, i.e., costs that remain the same regardless of the number of LLINs distributed, and only includes costs that are incurred for each additional distributed LLIN.
The marginal costs exclude AMF’s organizational costs and the cost equivalent of services donated to AMF. We exclude these costs from our estimate of the marginal cost per LLIN because, based on our understanding of AMF's model, we believe they will not increase if AMF distributes additional nets. In the past, these costs have remained relatively stable (or decreased, in the case of donated services) as AMF has increased the number of LLINs it distributes. AMF agrees with this, telling us that it plans to expand the size of its distributions (i.e., doing fewer but larger distributions) and maintains that it will be able to do so while keeping its current organizational costs stable.
Note that we believe that the
marginal cost per LLIN is the most relevant for donors, since this is what we expect will be the cost per additional LLIN of future AMF distributions.
Cost per life saved
Using the 2012 projected costs per LLIN, we estimate the cost per child life saved through an AMF LLIN distribution at about $1,600 using the marginal cost ($5.15 per LLIN) and about $1,700 using the total cost ($5.54 per LLIN).
This does not include other potential benefits of LLINs (non-fatal cases of malaria prevented, prevention of deaths in age groups other than under-5 year olds, prevention of other mosquito-borne diseases, etc.). Full details at our
report on mass distribution of LLINs.
Our process
In order to arrive at an estimate of the total cost per LLIN provided by AMF, we included the following information:
- Costs incurred by AMF as reported in its audited financial statements and in a document AMF sent to us.
- AMF's projected costs for 2012, from a conversation with AMF director Rob Mather.
- Data from Concern Universal on (a) costs allocated to the project by Concern Universal, (b) Concern Universal's estimate of costs paid by the government to support the project, and (c) other organizational costs, such as the value of office space and management staff time, incurred by Concern Universal.
AMF has said it could contribute approximately 50 million LLINs to existing and planned universal coverage programs and other distributions if it had the funds. AMF further said it had the capacity currently to process $10M of LLINs every 3-6 months. AMF said that it spends, and will spend, all additional funds it receives on LLINs, and that it has sufficient funding to cover its non-net costs.
AMF expects that from 2012 onward, the LLINs it funds will be distributed in larger-scale distributions like the one discussed
above
AMF discussed with us its process for allocating donations. It explained that it seeks to minimize the time between a donation being received and the LLINs funded with that donation reaching households. AMF refers to the time between receiving a donation and the LLINs being distributed as ‘lag time’. When larger distributions are being funded there can be an increase in lag time for donations because more funds have to be collected before the distribution can go ahead
We have requested AMF delay allocating all GiveWell-attributable if it feels this would assist in funding larger distributions. Therefore, if you give to AMF through GiveWell's website and/or report your donation is due to GiveWell, your donation may not be allocated to an LLIN distribution immediately. If you would prefer it be allocated immediately, you can contact AMF to request this.
AMF expects larger-scale distributions to follow a process similar to that used in Malawi, i.e. determining where net gaps exist at a country level through discussions with experts. Photographs will be available from about one of every 30 villages, and post-distribution surveys will be conducted on about 1-2% of recipient households. Possible distribution countries include Mali, Togo, Malawi, Ghana, Angola, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia. In a recent conversation, Against Malaria Foundation emphasized Malawi, Mali and Ghana as leading possibilities.
As discussed at our
discussion of LLIN distribution, we believe that the gaps in LLIN coverage are sufficient to make these plans reasonable.
AMF has provided
full details of how it expects to use additional funds, including what information it will report for each distribution and when this information will be available.
Financials/other
All data is from AMF's Audited Financial Statements for 2005-2010, which we accessed at the United Kingdom's Charity Commission website. Since AMF is a British charity, all figures are presented in British pounds.
Revenue and expense growth (
about this metric): AMF is relatively young and relatively small. Its revenues and expenses have been growing since 2007.
Assets-to-expenses ratio (
about this metric): AMF's assets-to-expenses ratio was very low at about 0.25 at the end of the 2010 fiscal year. However, this may not indicate financial instability as AMF's ongoing costs are limited and commitments to purchase additional nets are made as funding becomes available.
Expenses by program area (
about this metric): AMF only runs one program, so all expenses support ITN distributions.
Expenses by IRS-reported category (
about this metric): These are within the range we believe is reasonable.
Note: AMF is a British charity, and we therefore use the terms that equate to IRS-reported categories. We believe that the "charitable activities" item refers to "program expenses" and "governance costs" refer to "administration". We did not see a line item for fundraising costs on AMF's financials.
Unresolved issues
Some of AMF's measures for collecting information on key questions are relatively new. We believe that AMF has a strong track record on ensuring that nets are delivered, and on general transparency, and we find its commitment to improving its documentation credible; but it does not have a robust track record on the answers to some key questions, particularly (a) whether individuals' needs for nets are accurately determined and (b) whether people use their nets properly over the long run.
Sources
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- Mather, Rob. Against Malaria Foundation Founder. Phone conversation with GiveWell, April 28, 2009.
- Mather, Rob. Against Malaria Foundation Founder. Phone conversation with GiveWell (DOC), February 11, 2011.
- Mather, Rob. Against Malaria Foundation Founder. Phone conversation with GiveWell, November 18, 2011.
- Mather, Rob. Against Malaria Foundation Founder. Phone conversation with GiveWell, May 11, 2012.
- Noor, Abdisalan et al. 2009. The use of insecticide treated nets by age: Implications for universal coverage in Africa (PDF). BMC Public Health 9:369.
- Project Muso. Bednet survey data (XLS). Data is from a survey designed and conducted by Project Muso. Those interested in using this data for research or any other purpose should contact Project Muso for permission.
- Project Muso. Bednet survey data summary (XLS). Data is from a survey designed and conducted by Project Muso. Those interested in using this data for research or any other purpose should contact Project Muso for permission.
- Renshaw, Melanie. African Leaders Malaria Alliance Chief Technical Advisor. Email to Rob Mather, June 26, 2011.
- St. Luke's Hospital. Post-distribution report for mosquito net distribution (DOC).
- St. Luke's Hospital. Questionnaire for net assessment (DOC).
- St. Luke's Hospital. Supervision data (XLS).
- St. Nicholas Parish Church. Immediate report: Singo Village, Malawi (PDF).
- Todd, Robin. Concern Universal Malawi Director. Phone Conversation with GiveWell, March 20, 2012.
- Todd, Robin. Concern Universal Malawi Director. Email to GiveWell, March 25, 2012.
- Todd, Robin. Concern Universal Malawi Director. Email to GiveWell, March 30, 2012.
- Todd, Robin. Concern Universal Malawi Director. Email to GiveWell, April 3, 2012.
- Todd, Robin. Concern Universal Malawi Director. Email to Rob Mather, November 18, 2011.